Canada needs to seriously plan for the possibility that the US will not be a liberal democracy anymore. This is not fear-mongering, but a real prospect. A Trump victory in November would be a generational game changer for our security, stability, and prosperity.
And, just to stay on the gloomy side, even if Biden wins, Canada (and the rest of the world) will have to live with the reality that at least 40% of Americans support, and will no doubt continue to support, his Trumpist agenda. That shit is not going to just disappear.
A couple things.
- if you equate Trudeau with Trump, you are blinded by partisanship and are part of the problem. Absolutely fair to be critical of Trudeau, but they are not on the same planet in terms of venality, corruption.
-same if you equate Canada's conservatives with Trump
As @dgardner pointed out, the dangers for Canada associated with a Trump victory are an important driver (but not the only one) of Canada's deteriorating security environment. As a country (government + society), we are not ready to deal with this reality
As the Islamic Republic becomes more vulnerable, the US & allies need to support the democratic opposition. But they also need to be careful not to support the wrong actors, which is exactly what @TonyclementCPC does here; the MeK is illegitimate & corrupt nationalpost.com/opinion/tony-c…
This is important: the US & allies have repeatedly made mistakes in the past in supporting the wrong opposition actors, including loud exiled groups with well-oiled PR machines. The danger is that MeK (and others) will crowd out those who deserve to be heard and receive support.
This illustrates a persistent pathology of much of western foreign policy: we try to apply a broad ideology while being totally ignorant of actual conditions on the ground. The idea that the MeK is a legitimate alternative is absolute BS. The group has zero support inside Iran.
Back from the Ottawa protests. Tweeting this from the office because it is minus 29 outside (= tabarnak qui fait frette). Fairly small size today, not surprisingly. Slightly more entrenched than last week (supply tents, tightly parked trucks perpendicular to the street). Thread.
Towing these away will be hard
Still your usual mix of bad analogies. No, Canada is not a communist state.
This article refers to "Tom Quiggin, a former military intelligence officer who also worked with the RCMP and was considered one the country's top counter-terrorism experts".
No - he left years ago & is widely viewed in the intelligence community as an islamophobe & a buffoon.
Every year Canadian politicians (Harper, Baird) attend the MeK summit. The media then quote them as attending an "international conference" of an "opposition group". But the MeK is a former terrorist group and a cult hated in Iran, not a partner in the fight for democracy there.
Supporting democracy/human rights in Iran and opposing the Islamic Republic is the right thing to do. But to partner with the MeK is counter-productive. Yes, it allows these politicians to tick the "tough on Iran" box for domestic purposes. cbc.ca/news/politics/…
(It also reportedly pays well, according to multiple media stories).
But history should teach us that allying with the wrong groups, like the MeK, does not advance the cause of democracy and can backfire. There are real democracy activists inside Iran - they deserve support.
It's that time of the year when the MeK, a thuggish cult based in Albania with zero support inside Iran, has its annual summit, where well paid western politicians show up to pretend they support democracy in Iran.
Reminder: you are not supporting the actual cause of democracy and human rights in Iran - a noble cause - by endorsing the MeK, a group that is not democratic by any stretch of the imagination and that has no legitimacy beyond aging Iranian exiles
Insane story by @SarahDadouch, of a Saudi dissident who vanished in Canada.
-This is part of a pattern of pressure on and kidnapping of exiled Saudi dissidents - including, not for the first time, in Canada
-Al Harbi has a lot of information... (1/4)
...on other Saudi dissidents in Canada and elsewhere - phone numbers, identities, etc. This can be useful for Saudi security services to try to hack their phones and pressure their families inside Saudi Arabia.
-Not that there was serious doubt, but this story shows that... (2/4)
... the growing foreign policy assertiveness under MbS may have toned down a bit since its peak in 2017/18 (Qatar blockade, kidnapping of Lebanese PM, dispute with Canada, Yemen war...) but clearly continues... (3/4)