Thread by @john_lichfield

Here is a new French Covid numbers crunch…
With 7,379 new cases confirmed in the 24hrs to 2pm yesterday, the official daily count of Covid-19 in France has almost doubled in just over a week. Santé Publique France now talks of an “exponential” 2nd spread of the virus. BUT…1/10

There is still no significant impact on the number of deaths or the population of C19 patients in hospitals and ICU units. New hospital and ICU entries are growing slowly – but there is nothing like the influx seen in late March/early April. 2/10

Is this just a matter of time? Or is the virus less nasty now? According to the government, low hospital/death stats are misleading. Many new cases are among young adults/the middle aged. Half are symptom-free. As C19 spreads to the vulnerable, acute cases could explode.

3/10

But medical experts are puzzled, nonetheless, by the bizarre imbalance between cases (surging since July) and a relative absence of acute illness. A friend in the Breton borders quotes a senior doctor as follows: “ Hospitals are empty. Who's seen an epidemic without sick people?”

The government is taking no chances. Masks are now compulsory in all public spaces, indoors and outdoors, in Paris, Marseilles, Bordeaux and other cities. President Macron said on Friday that he couldn’t rule out a second lockdown but he was determined to avoid one 5/10

Daily stats are difficult to follow. I’ve crunched them for the last 10 days. The “exponential” increase in cases IS partly due to increased testing, now running at 800,000 a week. But not entirely. Testing is up 32% in the last week but cases are up 58%. 6/10

Confirmed C19 cases over the last 10 days, working backwards are as follows.
7,379 – 6,111 – 5,429 – 3,304 – 1,955 – 4,897 – 3,602 – 4,586 – 4,771 – 3776.
The average in the last 3 days is 6,306. The 7-day average is 4,668. The av. in previous weeks was 2,921-1,909-1,294.
7/10

BUT….Ten days ago there were 374 C19 patients in intensive care in France. There are now 387. At the height of the crisis in early April, there were 7,200.

8/10

Ten days ago there were 4,806 C19 patients in French hospitals. Now, after a surge in cases lasting 6 weeks, there are 4,535 patients – 271 fewer.
About 1,000 C19 patients a week are now entering French hospitals. At the peak of the crisis in April, it was 22,000 a week.
9/10

There have been 132 C19 deaths in the last ten days, bringing the total to 30,596. (An estimated 1,800 home deaths are not yet included.).

This is 13.2 deaths a day – compared to over 1,000 a day at the height of the crisis.

Puzzling.
Also encouraging?
On verra.

10/10