Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
Aug 29, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read Read on X
A historic shift in the vol regime, 3 Things You Need to Know here:

thebeartrapsreport.com/blog/2020/08/2…

#VIX
#Volatility Image
2020

VIX: +66%
Nasdaq: +38%
Gold: +29%
S&P 500: +9%
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0%

Via @BearTrapsReport Image
2020 Returns

Large Caps: +11%
Medium Caps: -2%
Small Caps: -15%

In recent weeks, there's been a massive buyer of Tech sector upside calls - call spreads across a basket of stocks. Over $1B of premium spent and upwards of $20B in notional through strikes. See above, important.
Russell 1000

PE vs. Up from March

Growth: 31x vs. 70%
Value: 17x vs. 44%

*Price to earnings ratio, % return from the March lows.

Via @BearTrapsReport

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More from @Convertbond

Dec 15, 2023
File under another multipolar world headline...

*MAERSK TELLS ALL ITS CONTAINER SHIPS TO PAUSE RED SEA VOYAGES
A large percentage of sea-borne container traffic goes through the Red Sea. Even cargo from Shanghai to New York goes through the Red Sea. All the cargo that goes from China to Europe goes through the Red Sea. Very few go around Africa since it's more costly. Halting this traffic has the potential to disrupt a lot of cargo traffic...Image
Drought Saps the Panama Canal, Disrupting Global Trade - The number of ships that can travel through the vital route has fallen sharply this year because of a lack of water for the locks, raising costs and slowing deliveries.- NYT

*sticky shipping - file under NOT deflationary
Read 5 tweets
Oct 3, 2023
With US Treasuries at 5%, Bank of America is close to 45x levered, at 6-7% infinitely levered.


Image
For all of 2008, as Lehman was failing, the value of their core (safety) capital (US Treasuries) was moving higher, NOT lower.

*As interest rates move down, bond prices move up. Image
After the banks failed in 2008, they were forced to hold far more "quantity" and "quality" of capital. This - ladies and gentlemen - is sowing the seeds of the next crisis. This high-quality capital (US Treasuries) is in flames, dramatically lower in price.

(3)

*Boston Fed. Image
Read 10 tweets
Aug 9, 2023
Off the Recent Lows

Orange Juice +45%
Natural Gas +43%
Sugar +41%
Gasoline +33%
Uranium +28%
Oil +24%
Lean Hogs +22%
Soybeans +16%
Iron Ore +15%
Coal +14%
Wheat +14%

*Bloomberg terminal data, lows since Dec.
**ALERT: Inflation expectations, US 5yr BEs, at a nine-year high.
EU Gas Up 22% today

“The likelihood of a repetition of the crisis of last winter has gone down significantly, which can also be seen in the forward market, “But we have to be clear that the structural change ...
due to the Russian war in Ukraine and the drop out of Russian gas in the supply of Europe is going to stay and therefore the crisis is not over.”CEO at EON

E.ON is one of Europe's largest operators of energy networks, with some 51 million customers.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 25, 2023
What do bonds know?
We are looking at the 3-month US Treasury Bill yield vs. the 2-Year US Treasury yield. The Fed is holding up the front-end T-Bill yields with rate hikes and hits of more vs. market participants pushing down 2’s yield betting on recession - future rate cuts.

(2)
3m vs two-year Treasuries are -98bps, back to 1990, have never been this inverted (pre Lehman it got to -55ish, pre dotcom -77ish). But what does OIL know? A -47% drawdown inside of 10 months, -13% since March 3rd.

(3)
Read 7 tweets
Mar 24, 2023
“Policymakers consider themselves vindicated after they followed through on their half-percentage-point rate rise last week despite global market volatility” FT

*the ECB hasn’t figured out banks can’t fund them selves with front end rates this high after the AT1 debacle.
The ECB is “smoking on the dynamite shed..”

(2)
*SCHOLZ: DEUTSCHE BANK IS `VERY PROFITABLE,' NO REASON FOR WORRY

*Loan book $1.3T vs Deposits $621B

vs.

Equity Market Cap $19B

(3)
Read 6 tweets
Mar 2, 2023
Goldman Sachs goes “all in” US consumer finance, then pukes 🤮 it out 18 months later? Really??? Tell me more…
Flashback to 2006-2007, Goldman was the FIRST to exit subprime — it was a classic, hall of fame stop 🛑 loss. Today, as colossal interest rate risk hits the $4.8T consumer finance mkt - they cut bait again while most are asleep. History rhymes, indeed. Image
From last month - "Goldman Sachs' consumer credit division lost $1.2 billion in nine months last year, and the losses were primarily related to the Apple Card."
Read 4 tweets

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