(Thread) Nov 3: What might go wrong? Part II.
Part I is here:
We’re up to #4: Trump will Stoke Violence and Create Chaos
A ploy of would-be autocrats is to create violence, and then claim to be the person who can save the nation from the violence.
Part I is here:
We’re up to #4: Trump will Stoke Violence and Create Chaos
A ploy of would-be autocrats is to create violence, and then claim to be the person who can save the nation from the violence.
1/ Since the start of the George Floyd / BLM protests, rightwing extremists have infiltrated the protests and created violence.
People not paying close attention can't tell who is responsible. The confusion gives Trump visuals to back up the lies.
cnn.com/2020/07/28/us/…
People not paying close attention can't tell who is responsible. The confusion gives Trump visuals to back up the lies.
cnn.com/2020/07/28/us/…
2/ Fascists need enemies.
In the midterms, the “scary enemies” were the homeless migrants at the border.
That didn’t work out so well for Trump, so now he’s trying a new enemy: The Democrats, BLM protestors, and liberals.
In the midterms, the “scary enemies” were the homeless migrants at the border.
That didn’t work out so well for Trump, so now he’s trying a new enemy: The Democrats, BLM protestors, and liberals.
3/ Because it’s a lie, it’s another stream in the Firehose of Falsehoods.
The goal is to confuse people, get Trump voters to the polls by scaring them, and scare would-be Biden voters.
The antidote: Don't contribute to the chaos.
The goal is to confuse people, get Trump voters to the polls by scaring them, and scare would-be Biden voters.
The antidote: Don't contribute to the chaos.
4/ If you protest, don’t allow yourself to be provoked into a fight.
If you have a camera, film violence or lawbreaking so that the blame can be appropriately placed.
Also under this heading is the Post Office Chaos.
washingtonpost.com/politics/trump…
If you have a camera, film violence or lawbreaking so that the blame can be appropriately placed.
Also under this heading is the Post Office Chaos.
washingtonpost.com/politics/trump…
5/ Here is where Trump admitted that he’s sabotaging the post office as a way to undermine the election:
washingtonpost.com/politics/trump…
washingtonpost.com/politics/trump…
6/ When the pandemic hit, states and voter activist groups immediately took steps for voters to vote by mail (absentee).
Vote by mail solves a host of problems, including eliminating electronic voting machines, creating a paper trail, and making voter suppression more difficult.
Vote by mail solves a host of problems, including eliminating electronic voting machines, creating a paper trail, and making voter suppression more difficult.
7/ Initially Trump tried to dissuade people from voting by mail by saying fraud is rampant with vote by mail (absentee).
But then he realized (1) he couldn’t stop the trend toward vote by mail and (2) he was discouraging his own voters from voting (oops).
But then he realized (1) he couldn’t stop the trend toward vote by mail and (2) he was discouraging his own voters from voting (oops).
8/ He’s evidently decided that the best way to sabotage vote by mail is to cripple the Post Office.
This goes along with the GOP desire to dismantle the federal government and privatize the post office.
This goes along with the GOP desire to dismantle the federal government and privatize the post office.
9/ To counter lie: If you can vote early, do so. If you can vote absentee:
Get your ballot as soon as possible.
Strategize the best way to submit your ballot for counting.
In some states, you can take your ballot to a polling place during early voting or on Election Day.
Get your ballot as soon as possible.
Strategize the best way to submit your ballot for counting.
In some states, you can take your ballot to a polling place during early voting or on Election Day.
10/ Other states have secure ballot drop boxes.
We will have a problem if millions of people wait until the last few weeks to request their ballots.
The mails will get jammed and people won’t get their ballots. They’ll have to go to the polls and cancel their absentee ballot.
We will have a problem if millions of people wait until the last few weeks to request their ballots.
The mails will get jammed and people won’t get their ballots. They’ll have to go to the polls and cancel their absentee ballot.
11/ This will create long lines and Election Day chaos.
Trump’s attack on the post office will also (1) destroy small businesses that rely on the mail (2) harm people who rely on the mail for prescription drugs and (3) harm rural areas that have no other options.
Trump’s attack on the post office will also (1) destroy small businesses that rely on the mail (2) harm people who rely on the mail for prescription drugs and (3) harm rural areas that have no other options.
12/ Thus the idea could backfire by making Trump even more unpopular while savvy Democrats adroitly sidestep the mail.
Remember what happened to the Wisconsin GOP when they tried to win an election by creating pain for voters? See 👇if you forgot.
Remember what happened to the Wisconsin GOP when they tried to win an election by creating pain for voters? See 👇if you forgot.
13/ This brings us to #5: The Strongman Con.
“I am an invincible strongman” is one of the great cons of every dictator or would-be dictator.
Trump is first and foremost a conman. One of his most successful cons is to persuade people that he has almost superhuman powers.
“I am an invincible strongman” is one of the great cons of every dictator or would-be dictator.
Trump is first and foremost a conman. One of his most successful cons is to persuade people that he has almost superhuman powers.
14/ Most of the catastrophizing questions I get attribute almost superhuman powers to Trump and his supporters, like: "What if DeJoy destroys millions of Democratic ballots before they arrive?"
Just imagine the postmaster doing that without anyone finding out.
Just imagine the postmaster doing that without anyone finding out.
15/ This tells me Trump is succeeding with his con. It's a dangerous con.
It’s important not to underestimate Trump and Putin. They are dangerous.
It’s also important not to overestimate them.
Both overestimating and underestimating require a departure from reality.
It’s important not to underestimate Trump and Putin. They are dangerous.
It’s also important not to overestimate them.
Both overestimating and underestimating require a departure from reality.
16/ Truth is the antidote to fascism.
The way to counter a fascist uprising is to stay grounded in the truth.
Overestimating Trrump attributes superpowers to him, which elevates him in the eyes of his followers, which strengthens the leadership cult.
The way to counter a fascist uprising is to stay grounded in the truth.
Overestimating Trrump attributes superpowers to him, which elevates him in the eyes of his followers, which strengthens the leadership cult.
17/ Thomas Rid, an expert in Russian disinformation tactics, said that the extent of Russia’s interference in the 2016 election was “designed to be overestimated.”
Putin wants to be overestimated. That way he’s feared and has more power.
Putin wants to be overestimated. That way he’s feared and has more power.
18/ Trump has built a cult following based on the promise that he's a strongman and can take on and defeat the ‘enemies’ of America (where enemies are liberals, Democrats, and anyone who criticizes Trump).
19/ Each time Trump does something outrageous and everyone has a panic meltdown, his followers see the meltdown and think, “WOW TRUMP IS ALL POWERFUL”
When we overestimate him, we help him with his con.
Don’t do it. Stay grounded in facts and reality.
When we overestimate him, we help him with his con.
Don’t do it. Stay grounded in facts and reality.
20/ The Firehose of Falsehoods, the Strongman Con, the endless chaos and violence are all designed to make people lose touch with reality, so that you feel this way 👇
When factuality is cleared away, fascism can take hold.
When factuality is cleared away, fascism can take hold.
21/ Yes, Trump is dangerous.
No, he doesn't have the ability or resources (for example) to pull off a full-blown military coup. Nor can he (or Putin) flip 30 million votes across multiple states and thousands of polling places without being detected.
Don’t pretend they can.
No, he doesn't have the ability or resources (for example) to pull off a full-blown military coup. Nor can he (or Putin) flip 30 million votes across multiple states and thousands of polling places without being detected.
Don’t pretend they can.
22/ In listing the very real dangers we face, I'm also trying to offer remedies and antidotes.
Meanwhile, this has gotten too long, so I will continue Part III in another thread.
Meanwhile, this has gotten too long, so I will continue Part III in another thread.
This is an example of buying into the Strong Man Con.
This person is implying that Trump can flip millions of votes and get away with it, which implies that he can make himself dictator.
If this were true, why would anyone bother voting?
This person is implying that Trump can flip millions of votes and get away with it, which implies that he can make himself dictator.
If this were true, why would anyone bother voting?
Why are smart people who know how government works—like Obama, Biden, Kamala Harris, and HRC—urging people to vote if none of it will matter because Trump can flip millions of votes, get away with it, and steal the election?
Q: Who wants you to believe that voting doesn't matter because it's rigged, so you shouldn't bother?
(Extra credit if you get the right answer.)
Confession: Twitter catastrophizing wears me out and makes me testy. It's also destructive.
Will say more in Part III.
(Extra credit if you get the right answer.)
Confession: Twitter catastrophizing wears me out and makes me testy. It's also destructive.
Will say more in Part III.
Because if Trump creates one crisis, we (including Congress and the media) can deal with it. People can act and respond.
If he creates dozens, nobody can focus.
So he creates dozens.
This is #4, earlier: Create chaos. He does it because it helps him.
If he creates dozens, nobody can focus.
So he creates dozens.
This is #4, earlier: Create chaos. He does it because it helps him.
I think it was @mashagessen (it's been a few months since I read her book) is the one who said that mocking and laughing at dictators is effective.
Think of the bully. What if you laugh? What if you panic?
Panic builds up the bully.
Part III is here:
