It's important to recognise what's new in the Trump/far right convergence around the Portland/Kenosha events. 1/ We've moved from isolated far right shooters to routine weapons carrying by the far right and now to open kinetic vigilantism... newstatesman.com/world/north-am…
2/ Both in Kenosha and Portland, social media call outs resulted in far right counter protests to peaceful and legitimate anti-racism. This is Trump's strategy - and you don't need a conspiracy theory to see the overlap between the aims newstatesman.com/world/north-am…
3/ The strategic goal is to defeat Trump at the polls; it's not about calling off protests, it's about the left in the Democratic Party showing leadership and connecting with them to do the maximum to stop Trump dictating the tempo/framing of the crisis... newstatesman.com/world/north-am…
4/ Trump has strategists who don't care about democracy; the Dems have pollsters and spin doctors as if this is about some reasoned argument. The swing states could be hit with provocations before polling day, and voter suppression will wear a bandana, Kevlar and a QAnon t-shirt
5/ The #TrumpViolence hashtag is a good first response to the new situation, but he won't be beaten with lawyers and some decent videos... it's going to need a massive GOTV campaign and civil resistance to any attempt at a presidential coup...
6/ The core of a resistance movement - to force Trump to accept any Biden victory - has to be strike action. The cops and Fox News can't pick the apples, clean the hotel rooms, unload the ships - and the transition is long enough for strikes to mean something...
7/ Meanwhile what's happening with the deification of Kyle Rittenhouse is akin to the creation of a living Horst Wessel. Not even in Weimar Germany did the right and far right collaborate like this newstatesman.com/world/north-am…
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I'm a China hawk but I am sick of Tory duplicity and 💩 Fleet Street commentary on "why don't we designate China a threat"? Neither Johnson, Sunak nor Truss did so, despite Truss threatening... and here's why: 1/ This is what a "threat" to National Security looks like...
2/ ... it's a nuclear capable Russian aircraft with a missile that can travel at Mach 10: three of them spent 12 minutes in NATO airspace last month... and the RAF regularly has to intercept these and other Russian threats...
3/ In 2021 the Tory govt recognised China as a "systemic competitor" - that is, a country determined to compete with us over economic interests, values and geopolitical influence... then, in 2022, China overtly backed the Russian invasion of Ukraine....
I just used my fingerprint to log into my Apple computer; I used facial recognition to pay for an e-bike on my Apple phone; I ordered a repeat prescription on the NHS app that holds every detail of every illness I have ever been treated for on a central server...1/
2/ ... I had to show my drivers' licence to get into a briefing from a civil servant; I used the e-gates at LCY to cross the border without having to speak to a human being... why would I object to "the state" issuing me with digital proof of ID?...
3/... Labour must of course address privacy concerns and the possibility of cyberattacks on a single digital ID - but there are massive libertarian and economic upsides to a society where *everybody is who they say they are*...
Labour's reshuffle was deftly completed and has rewarded competence and narrative skill. Task now is to start not just delivering but telling a story of who we are - I am proud of what Labour is achieving... here's one example... 1/
What happened in D.C.? 🧵1/ We, outside the classified zone, won't know for a while - because the European leaders pulled of something surreal: they pulled Trump back from getting sucked in to Putin's mental framework ... but...
2/ ... look at this: diplomats with PhDs, security analysts with years in the field, aircrew risking their lives to surveil the Russia/Iran threat... all that expertise and dedication keeping us safe ... for this? The White House of Kennedy and Roosevelt turned into a trashy gift shop....
2/ ... look at this: diplomats with PhDs, security analysts with years in the field, aircrew risking their lives to surveil the Russia/Iran threat... all that expertise and dedication keeping us safe ... for this? The White House of Kennedy and Roosevelt turned into a trashy gift shop....
There are 3 historical reference points for Trump's Alaska disgrace ... Munich '38, Berlin '40, Moscow '41... which is closest? 1/🧵we've had no readout from an honest source...
2/ At Munich democracies signed up to dismembering Czechoslovakia, sidelining USSR with which it had a mutual defence pact ... so this wasn't Munich, yet...
3/ The Aug 1941 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact dismembered Poland and started WW2...
Global investors are selling US stocks because they know Trump's tariffs will kill globalisation and trigger recession 1/... but why are they selling bonds at the same time? 🧵
2/ ....They're selling US bonds - which they would normally buy as a safe haven - because bonds have become gambling chips for hedge funds who are gambling on massive credit ... as @FT explains
@FT 3/ ... what comes next is financial contagion. After 2008 all banks required to keep a stock of capital to cushion instability ... that's rapidly eroded... sudden stop in trade plus massive losses in financial markets is bound to take down some bank somewhere...