Mario Cibelli Profile picture
Aug 30, 2020 11 tweets 2 min read Read on X
A recent @NonGaap tweet about changing one’s mind reminded me of something Reed Hastings told me a decade+ ago

(1/x)
I thought about Netflix obsessively back then and on one of our visits I asked him a question about the creation of original content
I observed that Netflix had superior data from consumers and that it stood to reason that the company might be able to accurately deduce the type of content that would be popular with subscribers
I asked Reed...given all of its superior subscriber data (with more coming all the time) would Netflix ever consider creating original content for its users?
Without hesitation Reed said - we’ll never make content at Netflix. He said there was too much content already produced so there would always be content for a value buyer like Netflix
He went on to say that he didn’t know what Netflix would be steaming in the future since they didn’t known in advance what kind of content would be undervalued in the marketplace
This answer actually pleased me as I was worried about the company going down the slippery slope of creating expensive content and hoping it caught fire with audiences
I had already witnessed the value destructive pursuit of the movie business with other investments
Well sometime between that meeting and 2013 Reed clearly changed his mind and started skating - very fast - to where the puck was going to be once again
It can be hard to change one’s mind and pull the entire organization along for the ride. I imagine for Reed this was ultimately a very easy decision
As one of my friends asks & answers..what do you do when you’re wrong, I change my mind

(fin)

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More from @mario_cibelli

Dec 15, 2024
My instinct is that the narrative of $UBER as a big loser as AV tech develops has probably gone too far in the near term. I don’t have a high conviction opinion at this point but am increasingly skeptical that recent price action in perceived winners & losers is fully rational.
The futurists have certainly won the perception battle since the election but it is still very early innings in the ride hailing business and Uber’s scale, expertise and unrivaled data should keep them very much in the hunt for AV nirvana in ride share.
A few things I’m thinking about recently:

Can AV utilization rates be maintained outside of narrow core urban geos?

Who is best suited to own taxi AV fleets in a larger, broader rollout? Who is best suited to funnel demand to the owners of these vehicles?
Read 9 tweets
Aug 11, 2024
Mixing it up a bit with an old school/fintwit 1.0 thread on a small cap challenger co that I believe has some real potential. This is an incomplete thread but here’s the punchline: Remitly has a shot at being the booking .com of the digital remittance space $RELY (1/x)
Upfront I will say that my interest in Remitly is based on what the company may be able to achieve over the long-term. I don’t have a strong opinion of where the shares may trade in the near-term. Small cap growth equities are risky by nature.
Seattle-based Remitly is a fast growing, app-based version of Western Union’s ubiquitous money transfer service. It allows customers, mainly hard-working immigrants, to send money overseas to loved ones quickly and efficiently with a swipe of their phone.
Read 36 tweets
Mar 18, 2023
Most of big tech isn't pushing as hard as Meta for real efficiency gains and a faster pace of innovation as of yet. Arguably, PayPal is one that is and given all the changes it’s undergoing, now is the perfect time for the company to upgrade some of the metrics it reports. $PYPL
It's time to break out core consumer check-out services from other services. The overarching goal should be to share separate results for branded check-out services and Braintree (BT) with a high level of clarity - revenue and operating profit pre-shared corporate overhead.
There would be some nuance and assumptions required to break out the business units results but it’s worth the effort. Giving a clearer picture of how the underlying units are performing - especially BT - can only lead to better outcomes for shareholders.
Read 9 tweets
May 28, 2022
The current tech wreck & discussion on profitability, SBC etc. reminded me of a situation in the aftermath of the 2000 bubble burst where a portfolio company did something fairly radical w/ its comp plan in order to incentivize senior management to right size operations. (1/few)
The company was profitable but under-earning due to excessive overhead and the funding of money losing businesses whose prospects were generally questionable.
Earnings from the core business exceeded reported earnings and post bubble shareholders were not supportive of underwriting suboptimal uses of capital.
Read 15 tweets
May 21, 2022
The IPO was priced at $15 not long ago & now the shares are at $4. There's a promising business or brand and the balance sheet is in good shape. The company has a low burn or maybe even makes some money but no one seems to care in this market. #SMidOrphans (1/x)
There's an increasingly large class of broken IPO SMID orphans. The speed at which companies have joined this club recently could give any CEO or board whiplash but they would do well to learn a few things as quickly as possible...for everyone's sake.
These thoughts are very incomplete as there's too much to cover, so I'll highlight just a few key issues that the senior teams of orphaned IPOs should try and get in tune with.
Read 28 tweets
May 7, 2022
Once again judged the annual @BinghamtonSOM stock picking contest with @VD718 and a few others. Last year the winning pitch was a short recommendation of $CHGG which turned out to be spot on.
This year I thought I’d share the finalists picks upfront. The top three teams recommended as follows: short $CALM, long $CROX & long $AXON.
The work and logic flow from all three groups was fairly sound - presenters were largely freshman & sophomores. The team recommending a short on $CALM was deemed to have the winning presentation this year.
Read 4 tweets

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