A recent @NonGaap tweet about changing one’s mind reminded me of something Reed Hastings told me a decade+ ago
(1/x)
I thought about Netflix obsessively back then and on one of our visits I asked him a question about the creation of original content
I observed that Netflix had superior data from consumers and that it stood to reason that the company might be able to accurately deduce the type of content that would be popular with subscribers
I asked Reed...given all of its superior subscriber data (with more coming all the time) would Netflix ever consider creating original content for its users?
Without hesitation Reed said - we’ll never make content at Netflix. He said there was too much content already produced so there would always be content for a value buyer like Netflix
He went on to say that he didn’t know what Netflix would be steaming in the future since they didn’t known in advance what kind of content would be undervalued in the marketplace
This answer actually pleased me as I was worried about the company going down the slippery slope of creating expensive content and hoping it caught fire with audiences
I had already witnessed the value destructive pursuit of the movie business with other investments
Well sometime between that meeting and 2013 Reed clearly changed his mind and started skating - very fast - to where the puck was going to be once again
It can be hard to change one’s mind and pull the entire organization along for the ride. I imagine for Reed this was ultimately a very easy decision
As one of my friends asks & answers..what do you do when you’re wrong, I change my mind
(fin)
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A small cap sleeper that looks interesting for 2026 is Cohen & Steers - a public money manager specializing in REITs. Insider buys, a trough valuation at a possible cycle turn & an embedded hedge against AI/big tech rolling over make the 2025 decline look overdone. $CNS (1/x)
The business is simple - managing other people’s money for a fee - mutual funds, CEFs & separate accounts for retail and institutional investors. AUM flows can be cyclical but given its specialization, it does not suffer from the same leaky bucket that other fund families do.
For starters, in November, for the first time ever that I can see, the co-founders purchased shares in the open market - together they acquired ~$17 million of shares at prices ranging from $60 to $70. They own ~41% of the company already with the current CEO owning another 3%.
Here's something you don't see everyday: A PE firm going upside down on a price locked-in portion of a strategic investment with the proceeds being used to retire an offsetting amount of shares well below the contracted price. $HSIC (1/x)
In January dental distributor Henry Schein & KKR struck a deal for board representation which among other things includes $250 million of newly issued shares at a locked-in price of $76.10 which was the prior day's close.
The market's initial take was to send shares of $HSIC much higher netting a nice start to KKR's investment in the company. That premium has more than burned off with the shares currently sitting in the $68 to $69 range.
Xometry is making progress on a difficult task - turning its marketplace into the go to place for industrial part buyers. The past few quarters have shown great strides even as recession fears + the unwind of factor trades have brought the shares back to earth. $XMTR (1/x)
A few things may have gone unnoticed by investors recently such as the scale of their int'l business, including fast growing German operations, the US segment showing significant contribution margin and the potential for big growth just from *existing* enterprise customers.
For starters, Xometry is an OpenTable/Resy of sorts for job/machine tool shops. It helps industrial parts buyers at companies such as Apple & Tesla pinpoint excess capacity and areas of manufacturing expertise within a very fractured base of job/machine tool shops.
My instinct is that the narrative of $UBER as a big loser as AV tech develops has probably gone too far in the near term. I don’t have a high conviction opinion at this point but am increasingly skeptical that recent price action in perceived winners & losers is fully rational.
The futurists have certainly won the perception battle since the election but it is still very early innings in the ride hailing business and Uber’s scale, expertise and unrivaled data should keep them very much in the hunt for AV nirvana in ride share.
A few things I’m thinking about recently:
Can AV utilization rates be maintained outside of narrow core urban geos?
Who is best suited to own taxi AV fleets in a larger, broader rollout? Who is best suited to funnel demand to the owners of these vehicles?
Mixing it up a bit with an old school/fintwit 1.0 thread on a small cap challenger co that I believe has some real potential. This is an incomplete thread but here’s the punchline: Remitly has a shot at being the booking .com of the digital remittance space $RELY (1/x)
Upfront I will say that my interest in Remitly is based on what the company may be able to achieve over the long-term. I don’t have a strong opinion of where the shares may trade in the near-term. Small cap growth equities are risky by nature.
Seattle-based Remitly is a fast growing, app-based version of Western Union’s ubiquitous money transfer service. It allows customers, mainly hard-working immigrants, to send money overseas to loved ones quickly and efficiently with a swipe of their phone.
Most of big tech isn't pushing as hard as Meta for real efficiency gains and a faster pace of innovation as of yet. Arguably, PayPal is one that is and given all the changes it’s undergoing, now is the perfect time for the company to upgrade some of the metrics it reports. $PYPL
It's time to break out core consumer check-out services from other services. The overarching goal should be to share separate results for branded check-out services and Braintree (BT) with a high level of clarity - revenue and operating profit pre-shared corporate overhead.
There would be some nuance and assumptions required to break out the business units results but it’s worth the effort. Giving a clearer picture of how the underlying units are performing - especially BT - can only lead to better outcomes for shareholders.