1. About polls. Folks that say that polls "don't mean anything" are wrong and ignorant. Folks that think *today's* polls indicate the election's result are also wrong. Image
2. Polls are like a picture of something happening (as opposed to a video). This something is somewhat predictable but it can change fast depending on unpredictable factors.
3. Of course they mean something and they mean a lot. There's a whole field of research on public opinion dynamic and analysis.

But public opinion reflects how a heterogenous population is reacting to a changing scenario.
4. Yes, propaganda will influence public opinion. Sudden episodes and the way they are perceived influence much more.

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More from @mariliacout

Apr 4, 2023
1. @Google , I'm a paying client and I would like to continue using your browser. Unfortunately, @Microsoft has infested millions of computers with a browser hijacker that redirects the default browser to a virus called @bing . This is a felony.
2. The next step was @MicrosoftStore's "clarification" that @bing is not a virus, but a legitimate browser. It is not. I am quite competent as a desktop computer user, having written my Ph.D. dissertation in 1994 in Win 3.1, the best MS version to this day. Bing is a malware.
3. Unfortunately, the US federal government "strongly suggests" residents to use @googlechrome as the browser to file official documents. I have proof of that. And now, I can no longer use @Google on Chrome because of the browser hijacker imposed by @Office
Read 10 tweets
Jul 25, 2022
@NitaGhei 1. Hi, Nina, I read your great article, which called my attention for being an issue I have been insisting on for some time. First of all, let me offer you the link to my book on suicide where I tackled this issue (it's free for download):

researchgate.net/publication/34…
@NitaGhei 2. I'm originally a molecular parasitology and then a Ph.D. in sociology of science, with an emphasis on scientometrics. The first thing that caught my eye was the misinterpretation of "opioid deaths" epidemiological curves.
@NitaGhei 3. Your claims about the curves representing entirely different sociological phenomena (chronic pain patient consumption X black market synthetic opioid expansion) is obvious for anyone minimally trained in quantitative analysis.
Read 10 tweets
May 7, 2022
1. It's not ok to "educate" the public on the harms of whatever drugs, or xenobiotic substances, or however they may frame it, if they don't even know how many valances carbon takes and why.
2. It's not ok to "educate" the public on an epidemic, or a pandemic, if they don't have some fairly advanced statistics training and, specifically, epidemiology statistics training.
3. It's not ok to "educate" any audience about whatever it is that affects their physiological functioning if they do not have a proven record of higher physiology education (as in a diploma, not a "certificate").
Read 10 tweets
Mar 5, 2022
1/ Tired of getting the exact same response from your office eleven times, between September 2021 and today, I decided to publish the case. You will probably continue to ignore my application, as well as those of thousands of other freelancers and immigrants.
@SBAgov
2/ As you can see in the image below, you are requesting my 2019 tax return and the 4506-T form. I submitted these documents all eleven times you requested it, because it was necessary for you to reconsider your rejection. @SBAgov
3/ The fact that the reply email is always exactly the same, regardless of what documents I attach and what I write is evidence of the neglectful attitude you have with a certain class of clients to which I belong. You don’t examine certain cases, and you do not read our emails.
Read 11 tweets
Dec 3, 2021
1. I am not sure if this @COPDFoundation program for distributing #harmonica s and helping COPD patients learn them is still up. I wish I had read more on this last year because it could have saved my Dad a lot of suffering.

copdfoundation.org/Learn-More/I-a…
2. This is my Dad's harmonica and the beginning of my own music/memory/something else journey. I gave it to him about 25 years ago when his harp was stolen during a break in.
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Dec 2, 2021
1. Today I got my Hohner Marine Band and my Suzuki pro master.

Yes, they sound completely different from one another. Yes, they sound great, they are easy to hold and to play.
This is it for now.
2. Studying and playing the harmonica is probably the one single meaningful activity that I am able to engage with without pain or hesitation.
3. Because lifting is limited by the spinal injury for now, or done with pain, and writing has hit one of those hesitation points in which the writer struggles with precision, with necessity, with sufficiency, and with style.
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