The more that happens with COVID, riots, unrest, China, etc, the more this book is critical to read and understand...
A thread of some thoughts I had reading it:
A thread of some thoughts I had reading it:
1/ One of my favorite things about a great book is how it can reshape you're thinking.
This book significantly changed my mental model for how to interpret history.
It's also Lindy; written in 1997, he's accurately predicted the last 23 years with about 80% accuracy IMHO.
This book significantly changed my mental model for how to interpret history.
It's also Lindy; written in 1997, he's accurately predicted the last 23 years with about 80% accuracy IMHO.
2/ Previously, I thought history was a line; there would be ups and downs but it would basically march straight forward.
As the Fourth Turning explains, it's actually a series of 80-100 year cycles broken into 4 distinct eras:
Awakening, Unraveling, Crisis, and High:
As the Fourth Turning explains, it's actually a series of 80-100 year cycles broken into 4 distinct eras:
Awakening, Unraveling, Crisis, and High:
3/ Explaining those eras:
1) Crisis: In a crisis, everything is on the line. Society faces a brutal challenge including Total War:
Revolutionary War (1775)
Civil War (1861) - 86 yrs after previous
WW II (1941) - 80 yrs
2020 - 79 yrs
I 🤯 when I saw the years lined up
1) Crisis: In a crisis, everything is on the line. Society faces a brutal challenge including Total War:
Revolutionary War (1775)
Civil War (1861) - 86 yrs after previous
WW II (1941) - 80 yrs
2020 - 79 yrs
I 🤯 when I saw the years lined up
4/ Explaining eras:
2) High: After overcoming the crisis, we experience a high. Society is filled with optimism. Hardened leaders from the Crisis are ready to rebuild & build new amazing things.
Think about what happened 1945-1965. Tons of optimism. The Baby Boom.
2) High: After overcoming the crisis, we experience a high. Society is filled with optimism. Hardened leaders from the Crisis are ready to rebuild & build new amazing things.
Think about what happened 1945-1965. Tons of optimism. The Baby Boom.
5/ Explaining eras
3) The Awakening: In this era, we turn inward again. The conformism of the high and optimism starts to get replaced by a focus on the individual.
Think about how the 70s were filled with hippies, a new rise of feminism, and experimentation with drugs.
3) The Awakening: In this era, we turn inward again. The conformism of the high and optimism starts to get replaced by a focus on the individual.
Think about how the 70s were filled with hippies, a new rise of feminism, and experimentation with drugs.
6/ Explaining eras
4) The Unraveling: As things continue, the institutions that were so trusted to win in the Crisis, and lead in the High now become corrupted. People lose faith in them, and the focus on the individual goes too far.
Most recently, the Unraveling was 1985-2008
4) The Unraveling: As things continue, the institutions that were so trusted to win in the Crisis, and lead in the High now become corrupted. People lose faith in them, and the focus on the individual goes too far.
Most recently, the Unraveling was 1985-2008
7/ Explaining eras
The Unraveling transitions to a Crisis era when we start a transition to an ultimate climax of Total War.
Based on the book, I think the 2008 crash was that tipping point. Add in the culture war, plus rising tension with China and you have our era's Crisis.
The Unraveling transitions to a Crisis era when we start a transition to an ultimate climax of Total War.
Based on the book, I think the 2008 crash was that tipping point. Add in the culture war, plus rising tension with China and you have our era's Crisis.
Taking a break to go read outside.
If this gets some likes and Retweets, I'll continue with more on how this applies to today, and my predictions for the future based on it.
If this gets some likes and Retweets, I'll continue with more on how this applies to today, and my predictions for the future based on it.
8/ The Fourth Turning answered a lot of questions I had about America:
1) Why did we make so much progress going to the moon + space, then just stop?
- Going to the moon is a societal goal that fits the High era. When the shift goes to the Awakening, it's no longer a priority
1) Why did we make so much progress going to the moon + space, then just stop?
- Going to the moon is a societal goal that fits the High era. When the shift goes to the Awakening, it's no longer a priority
2) How does the mental model work if this common phrase is true? Fits perfectly:
Hard times (Crisis) create strong men.
Strong men create good times (High).
Good times create weak men (Unraveling)
Weak men create hard times (next Crisis)
Hard times (Crisis) create strong men.
Strong men create good times (High).
Good times create weak men (Unraveling)
Weak men create hard times (next Crisis)
3) Why is each generation so different?
Again, the non-linearity of the world was a puzzle to me. As an older Millennial, I was puzzled why I couldn't relate to people and pop culture for Gen X. Ferris Bueller, Bill & Ted, etc always failed to resonate with me at all.
Again, the non-linearity of the world was a puzzle to me. As an older Millennial, I was puzzled why I couldn't relate to people and pop culture for Gen X. Ferris Bueller, Bill & Ted, etc always failed to resonate with me at all.
3 cntd) As it turns out, what cycle (Turning) you grow up in directly impacts who you are, what you value, and what your generation accomplishes.
Turnings & Generations:
+ Heroes fight & win the Crisis, then are the architects & leaders in the High.
Think about the WWII era leaders and why we call them "The Greatest Generation"; after winning the war, GIs built the suburbs, invented tons of new tech, & had the baby boom.
+ Heroes fight & win the Crisis, then are the architects & leaders in the High.
Think about the WWII era leaders and why we call them "The Greatest Generation"; after winning the war, GIs built the suburbs, invented tons of new tech, & had the baby boom.
Heroes come of age in the Crisis & are hardened by the experience. This gave them the discipline & desire to rebuild after + wisdom to rebuild Japan in a peaceful way (unlike Gremany post WWI)
See the steady, strong GDP growth (High) until the bumpy ride of the 70s (Awakening)?
See the steady, strong GDP growth (High) until the bumpy ride of the 70s (Awakening)?
Turnings & Generations:
- Artists are too young to fight in the Crisis. This creates baggage the rest of their lives:
* As children, they're asked to sacrifice & behave very well, bc there's too much else going on.
* Post-Crisis, they feel inferior to the Heroes who fought.
- Artists are too young to fight in the Crisis. This creates baggage the rest of their lives:
* As children, they're asked to sacrifice & behave very well, bc there's too much else going on.
* Post-Crisis, they feel inferior to the Heroes who fought.
You see this inferiority complex manifest in a few ways:
1) They were called the Silent generation, and have largely been quiet about their needs through life
2) Their voting history shows they'll vote against their personal self-interest
3) We've never had a Silent gen President
1) They were called the Silent generation, and have largely been quiet about their needs through life
2) Their voting history shows they'll vote against their personal self-interest
3) We've never had a Silent gen President
Turnings & Generations:
- Prophets are the children of a High. They grow up in good times & often don't appreciate what it took to create them, until an Unraveling shows them how things can fall apart.
These are Baby Boomers. The last gen to "have it better than their parents."
- Prophets are the children of a High. They grow up in good times & often don't appreciate what it took to create them, until an Unraveling shows them how things can fall apart.
These are Baby Boomers. The last gen to "have it better than their parents."
Turnings & Generations
- Nomads are children of an Awakening. They have parents who are very lenient. They pick up on the rebellion against order that marks an Awakening.
These are Gen X in all their jadedness and glory.
- Nomads are children of an Awakening. They have parents who are very lenient. They pick up on the rebellion against order that marks an Awakening.
These are Gen X in all their jadedness and glory.
Nomads are often parents of the Silent Generation, which may explain why we have so many Boomers that are leaders (last 4 Presidents) sticking around *a long* time; the Silent generation didn't step up as much as leaders and neither have their children.
qz.com/836658/donald-…
qz.com/836658/donald-…
Now, coming full circle, the children of Boomers (and some Gen X) are today's Millennials. They're the next Hero generation.
Yup, it's on us to step up to our current Crisis and answer the call.
(Note: Superman & Batman were created in 1938 history.com/news/8-things-…)
Yup, it's on us to step up to our current Crisis and answer the call.
(Note: Superman & Batman were created in 1938 history.com/news/8-things-…)
Meanwhile, Gen Z is the next Artist generation.
Think about all the COVID kids right now growing up under strange circumstances where they're asked to live without seeing their friends, being quiet so Mom & Dad can work, and going to school on Zoom.
Think about all the COVID kids right now growing up under strange circumstances where they're asked to live without seeing their friends, being quiet so Mom & Dad can work, and going to school on Zoom.
Are you with me? Reply with any questions.
The point in all of this is to say:
1) History goes in cycles
2) Each generation plays different roles in each cycle
3) The patterns & predictions of the author 23 years ago are holding true
4) We are at the end of a cycle (Crisis) now
The point in all of this is to say:
1) History goes in cycles
2) Each generation plays different roles in each cycle
3) The patterns & predictions of the author 23 years ago are holding true
4) We are at the end of a cycle (Crisis) now
Taking a break to work out & eat dinner.
More Likes & RTs and I'll talk about what it looks like is coming through the rest of this Crisis era (2008-202?) based on the author's frameworks.
More Likes & RTs and I'll talk about what it looks like is coming through the rest of this Crisis era (2008-202?) based on the author's frameworks.
Given the resurgence of interest today...after some dinner and the @celtics fourth quarter, I’ll write up Part 2: What is our Total War likely to be in this Fourth Turning?
Okay...picking this thread back up:
The Million Dollar Question is: if we agree this is a Fourth Turning and they always include “Total War”, what will the war be this time, and how should we prepare for this?
The former is Part 2 I’ll write today. The latter will be Part 3.
The Million Dollar Question is: if we agree this is a Fourth Turning and they always include “Total War”, what will the war be this time, and how should we prepare for this?
The former is Part 2 I’ll write today. The latter will be Part 3.
Part II: What is the Total War for this Fourth Turning?
As discussed last time, every Fourth Turning going back 7 cycles (nearly 600 years!) has had a Total War.
This handy table shows you what they are:
As discussed last time, every Fourth Turning going back 7 cycles (nearly 600 years!) has had a Total War.
This handy table shows you what they are:
Notice they only come in 2 flavors:
Civil War
- or -
Major war with another country
Knowing this, what are today’s options?
A) Civil War
B) War with China
There really is no other major world power to rival us other than China, so they seem the logical enemy.
Civil War
- or -
Major war with another country
Knowing this, what are today’s options?
A) Civil War
B) War with China
There really is no other major world power to rival us other than China, so they seem the logical enemy.
