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Markham Hislop Profile picture
@politicalham
Aug 31, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
What has Trudeau govt done to STOP development of the oil sands?

Pipelines: CER says 3 under construction (TMX, Line 3, KXL) enough until 2040.
Environmental assessment: Suncor's base mine expansion "sidesteps" info requirements on climate change
ablawg.ca/2020/08/28/cli…
2/Suncor CEO says COVID-19 could may be giving us "glimpse into a not-too-distant future where the transformation of our energy system could disrupt demand on a similar scale."

corporateknights.com/channels/energ…
3/Aug 19 CERI study develops 3 scenarios for oil sands output to 2039...2 of them inc. lower production due strictly to global market conditions.

CERI lists 5 factors needed for viable oil sands sector, only 1 (pipelines) depends on feds.

ceri.ca/studies/canadi…
4/A more reasonable view is that the oil sands face an existential threat from the energy transition, global climate policies, new energy technologies, poor environmental performance, and changing markets.

Threat from Ottawa is well down the list.
5/The CERI study assesses the policy framework in place and announced changes. Even under Scenario 3, oil sands output grows by almost 1 million b/d.

Where is the argument for Trudeau killing the oil sands? Image

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More from @politicalham

Markham Hislop Profile picture
May 3
1/Dear @rebeccakschulz

Stop spinning the data. From the 2024 CANGov NIR data released yesterday re. AB GHGs in Mt/yr:

2021: 269.9
2022: 271.0

You're bragging about an improvement of 1.1 Mt/yr? Seriously?
2/This graph nicely illustrates why @s_guilbeault hasn't been praising Alberta's emissions record.

Would you like to retract your tweet?

This chart clearly shows that Alberta is the ONLY province whose emissions rose between 2005 and 2021. Image
@s_guilbeault 3/I made this graph from last year's data. From this year's data:

2021: 155.8
2022: 155.3

Now you're bragging about one-half of one Mt/yr improvement! Image
Read 7 tweets
Markham Hislop Profile picture
Feb 28
1/🧵Came across some old USA data that shows rise of new energy technology (ICE tractors + petroleum) and decline of old (animal power).

Smooth lines disguise plenty of market speed bumps, eg Great Depression starts in 1930.

Don't fret about EV sales. EVs = tractors
#Alberta Image
2/The first "tractors" were powered by steam. They date back to the early 1890s.

In Western Canada, they were uneconomic for plowing, but very good at breaking new farm land and powering the big threshing machines that toured farms during harvest.

Sales declined in 1920s. Image
3/Around 1908, first "big gas tractors" sold in the West.

Still uneconomic for 1/4 section farms, a few big commercial farms experimented with teams of them. Economics weren't much better than steam tractors.

Never caught on. Kinda like some of the early EVs that failed. Image
Read 9 tweets
Markham Hislop Profile picture
Jan 16
1/From 2015 to 2019 @RachelNotley introduced some of the most forward-thinking energy and climate policies in North America.

She did it during a very difficult time of low oil and gas prices.

All the best in the next phase of your career, Ms Notley.
energi.media/markham-on-ene…
2/Notley signals that partial upgrading, petrochemicals will play bigger role in solving crude oil market access issue
energi.media/markham-on-ene…
3/Battle over Bill C69 demonstrates Notley govt support for Alberta oil and gas industry

energi.media/markham-on-ene…
Read 10 tweets
Markham Hislop Profile picture
Jan 4
1/🧵The Death of King Oil

Will global oil demand peak in 2030 then decline quickly @IEA or peak in 2045 and decline slowly @OPEC?

The answer has significant implications for #Canada and oil-producing provinces, especially #Alberta.
#OOTT #ABleg #cdnpoli
share.transistor.fm/s/72e05025
2/Framing the peak oil demand discussion: Fast vs slow energy transition

International Energy Agency (IEA) = fast
*Peak oil demand by 2030, short plateau, rapid decline in 2 of 3 scenarios

OPEC = slow
*Peak oil demand in 2045, long plateau, slow decline
energi.media/energi-notes/w…
3/My hypothesis: IEA's modelling and analysis is more credible than OPEC's.

Several of OPEC's key assumptions (discussed later in this thread) are falling apart only a few months after the release of World Oil Outlook 2045.
opec.org/opec_web/en/pr…
Read 68 tweets
Markham Hislop Profile picture
Aug 3, 2023
🧵 about @ABDanielleSmith's 7-month moratorium on new wind, solar projects.

Move roundly condemned by economists, clean energy groups.

The criticism is deserved, but there's more to this story, IMO.
#ABleg #ABpoli
alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI…
2/Min @neudorf_ab says moratorium a response to AB Utilities Commission (AUC) July 21 letter that raised 2 issues:

1. "development of power plants on high value agricultural lands"

2. "lack of mandatory reclamation security requirements for power plants"
alberta.ca/external/news/…
3/AB Electricity System Operator (AESO) also wrote a letter dated July 21 that supported "an inquiry into land use and reclamation issues..."
alberta.ca/external/news/…
Read 17 tweets
Markham Hislop Profile picture
Jul 15, 2023
🧵 re the coming threat to the #Alberta economy courtesy of the global energy transition.

AB is out of step with rest of the world.

We think we have plenty of time. We don't.

@Alberta_UCP mandate letters illustrate why.
#OOTT #ABleg #cdnpoli
energi.media/energi-notes/w…
First, the big picture.

The common response among advanced nations to the energy transition + climate crisis is some version of this 3-pronged strategy:

1. Adopt clean energy supply (renewables, nuclear, hydrogen, batteries, geothermal, etc) Image
2. Adopt clean energy demand technology (EVs, heat pumps, etc)

ELECTRIFY. EVERYTHING.

What can't be electrified will switch to zero or low-emission fuel like hydrogen.

But it will be mostly electricity. Image
Read 24 tweets

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