1/🧵Came across some old USA data that shows rise of new energy technology (ICE tractors + petroleum) and decline of old (animal power).

Smooth lines disguise plenty of market speed bumps, eg Great Depression starts in 1930.

Don't fret about EV sales. EVs = tractors
#Alberta 2/The first "tractors" were powered by steam. They date back to the early 1890s.

In Western Canada, they were uneconomic for plowing, but very good at breaking new farm land and powering the big threshing machines that toured farms during harvest.

Sales declined in 1920s.

1/From 2015 to 2019 @RachelNotley introduced some of the most forward-thinking energy and climate policies in North America.

She did it during a very difficult time of low oil and gas prices.

All the best in the next phase of your career, Ms Notley.
energi.media/markham-on-ene… 2/Notley signals that partial upgrading, petrochemicals will play bigger role in solving crude oil market access issue
energi.media/markham-on-ene…

1/🧵The Death of King Oil

Will global oil demand peak in 2030 then decline quickly @IEA or peak in 2045 and decline slowly @OPEC?

The answer has significant implications for #Canada and oil-producing provinces, especially #Alberta.
#OOTT #ABleg #cdnpoli
share.transistor.fm/s/72e05025 2/Framing the peak oil demand discussion: Fast vs slow energy transition

International Energy Agency (IEA) = fast
*Peak oil demand by 2030, short plateau, rapid decline in 2 of 3 scenarios

OPEC = slow
*Peak oil demand in 2045, long plateau, slow decline
energi.media/energi-notes/w…

🧵 about @ABDanielleSmith's 7-month moratorium on new wind, solar projects.

Move roundly condemned by economists, clean energy groups.

The criticism is deserved, but there's more to this story, IMO.
#ABleg #ABpoli
alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI… 2/Min @neudorf_ab says moratorium a response to AB Utilities Commission (AUC) July 21 letter that raised 2 issues:

1. "development of power plants on high value agricultural lands"

2. "lack of mandatory reclamation security requirements for power plants"
alberta.ca/external/news/…

🧵 re the coming threat to the #Alberta economy courtesy of the global energy transition.

AB is out of step with rest of the world.

We think we have plenty of time. We don't.

@Alberta_UCP mandate letters illustrate why.
#OOTT #ABleg #cdnpoli
energi.media/energi-notes/w… First, the big picture.

The common response among advanced nations to the energy transition + climate crisis is some version of this 3-pronged strategy:

1. Adopt clean energy supply (renewables, nuclear, hydrogen, batteries, geothermal, etc)

1/🧵 debunking @Alberta_UCP's claim that @albertaNDP net-zero grid by 2035 plan will cost $87 billion and "you're going to pay for it!"

AESO: net-zero is an investment opportunity. Interview w/AESO VP markets Miranda Keating-Erickson.
#AlbertaElection2023
2/We were discussing a 2022 AESO study that was based upon AESO's 2021 20-year load forecast.

*Cost of between $44 billion and $52 billion depending on one of three scenarios

1/🧵"First, in what is the most significant economic transformation since the Industrial Revolution, our friends and partners around the world—chief among them, USA—are investing heavily to build clean economies and the net-zero industries of tomorrow." FinMin @ChrystiaFreeland 2/"...Canada must either meet this historic moment—this remarkable opportunity before us—or we will be left behind as the world’s democracies build the clean economy of the 21st century." - Freeland
#cdnpoli #bcpoli #ableg #onpoli #cleanenergy #canada

1/🧵 Alberta Energy Regulator @AER_news Board Chair David Goldie announces investigation of @ImperialOil Kearl 2022 tailings pond seepage leak + 2023 5.3 million litre tailings pond wastewater spill.

Essential background:
#OOTT #ABleg @ACFN_KaiTaile
typefully.com/politicalham/p… 2/March 28 AER release: At March 16 meeting, AER Board of Directors "decided to commission an impartial, third-party review into certain aspects of the AER’s response to incidents at Imperial Oil’s Kearl facilities that took place between May 2022 and February 2023.

David Goldie

1/🧵 about today's ABGov announcement re oil/gas unpaid taxes.

Thread contents:

1. What was announced

2. Transcript of interview with @pmclauchlin Pres of AB Rural Municipalities Assoc

3. Expert comments

4 2/What was announced:

Energy Minister @PeterGuthrie99 issued ministerial order under Responsible Energy Development Act requiring @AER_news to receive evidence that municipal taxes have been paid when approving licence transfers/new licences for oil cos.
alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI…

1/🧵 What the players are saying about the 5.3 million litre spill and the year-long leak at @ImperialOil's Kearl oil sands plant.

Bottom line: Regulatory failure by @AER_news, company affects @ACFN_KaiTaile people AND the industry's future. 2/The place to start is my thread explaining what leaked, when it leaked, when the spill occurred (the spill happened 9 mths after the leak), and how the AER and Imperial responded.

https://twitter.com/politicalham/status/1632047433323778048

1/🧵 37 oil sands tailings ponds containing 1.4 TRILLION litres of waste have been a catastrophe waiting to happen for decades.

This story is the canary in the coal mine.

#oilsands #ABleg #YMM 2/A leak of industrial wastewater from @ImperialOil's Kearl oil sands plant 70 kms north of Fort McMurray on May 19, 2022. Imperial reported it to the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER).

Area includes muskeg, forested public lands, wildlife, and a "fish-bearing waterbody."

1/A 🧵 about oil/gas narrative.

@PeterGuthrie99 is Premier @ABDanielleSmith's energy minister. He's an engineer, rancher, small biz owner, but no energy experience.

Yet, as this article shows, he picked up the buzz words in no time.

Let me explain why.
discoverairdrie.com/articles/-mini… 2/The oil/gas industry is a master at crafting and controlling public/political/media narratives.

They use narrative to influence national conversations about energy ➡️ influences public opinion ➡️ dictates how much political space govts have to create policy.

🧵: A thought experiment: If I was @ABDanielleSmith, how would I spend $20 billion on the #Alberta energy economy (instead of giving it to oil co.s to clean up old wells).

Public capital is scarce. We can't do everything. What SHOULD we do? 2/#1 - Boost Alberta Innovates funding (by a lot) of advanced materials research.

At the top of the list: Bitumen Beyond Combustion, especially the R&D to turn bitumen into carbon fibre.

ABI's plan includes more than just carbon fibre. Turn the scientists loose on this quest.

A short 🧵: Hope and Optimism in #Alberta

I spent Tuesday at the 1-day @ERHydrogenHUB Hydrogen Summit in #YEG interviewing experts, politicians.

For the first time, I felt that AB (or part of it) really gets the global energy transition - both risks and opportunities.
#Ableg 2/The event was organized to promote the Edmonton Regional Hydrogen HUB, which counts 5 municipalities and 2 First Nations among its members.

Why are Alberta politicians singing the praises of clean energy? In part because of the potential for capital investment and jobs.

1/A short 🧵 about how Russia's invasion of Ukraine, US Inflation Reduction Act (US IRA) have sped up the global energy transition.

Energy giant bp released its Energy Outlook 2023 Jan 30 to include these two momentous events.

Warnings abound for Canada.
bp.com/en/global/corp… 2/Quick definition of bp's scenarios:

New Momentum: no/little tightening of climate policies
Acclerated: tightening of climate policies
Net-zero: significant tightening of climate policies

The energy transition is changing the global energy mix, but how much and how quickly?

THE COUNTER NARRATIVE: ALBERTA

Today, Alberta Energy Minister Peter Guthrie released the Energy sector outlook - Jan. 2023

Does the UCP govt's energy narrative stand up to scrutiny?

Sometimes, but mostly no. Confused? Let me explain in this thread.
alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI… 2/Both the AB govt and the oil/gas industry mostly subscribe to the "energy diversification" narrative.

Competing narratives:
*energy transition is made up by eco-radicals
*Fossil fuels already already declining

1/Today, @ABDanielleSmith wrote a letter to @JustinTrudeau.

The "alternative" she proposes to federal Just Transition legislation has zero credibility.

Read on. I'll explain what she's really up to.
#cdnpoli #ABleg #ABpoli @Alberta_UCP @albertaNDP
alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI… 2/"Dear Prime Minister;

I am writing to once again raise Alberta’s serious concerns with the proposed federal ‘Just Transition’ legislation."

No, she isn't. The three pages after that sentence are little more than a brochure for Alberta oil & gas.
energi.media/markham-on-ene…

1/This 🧵 is about @ABDanielleSmith's claim that the Canadian govt plans to phase out Alberta oil/gas as part of its Just Transition strategy.

I'll be asking questions like:

*What did the feds actually say?
*What did Big Oil say?
*What do others say about just transition? 2/Smith is lying.

PSA for Albertans: this is nonsense.

I've interviewed many people about various aspects of Just Transition and no one talks about shutting down the Alberta energy industry.

Need evidence?

Canada bought Alberta a pipeline (TMX) whose cost is now estimated at $21.7 billion. 2/This is Alberta O&G employment for the past 10 yrs. Notice the dips since the UCP formed govt? That's ~4,000 jobs lost that aren't coming back.

A Just Transition approach would proactively help those workers (eg. skills upgrading) to find another job and help communities.

1/A thread about critical minerals for batteries and an HUGE opportunity for #Canada (and #Alberta) that must be seized quickly or it will be lost.

Look how China dominates the global EV battery supply.

Much of that supply chain must now be built in North America. 2/@bentleyballan of @CanAccelerator explains the minerals component of that supply chain. Canada has plenty of the necessary minerals. Alberta has lithium.

A new roadmap to develop Canada's (EV battery) critical minerals industry

1/A thread about the #Alberta #oilsands

Oil sands production forecast to grow 500,000 b/d by 2030

Did you know oil sands producers break evens are between $30 and $40 per barrel? That's a very profitable barrel at today's prices.
@KevinBirn @SPGlobal
2/Bitumen is now a competitive barrel. It can compete when prices fall.

2 important characteristics of the oil sands:
- very low decline rates over 30 to 50 years (unlike shale)
- low sustaining capital needed (also unlike shale)
#OOTT #energytwitter