I stopped tweeting virus data a few weeks ago as it got a bit boring, and just seemed to start endless pointless arguments. But it’s perhaps time for an update on the Netherlands...
(This is all done with the caveat that I’m not an epidemiologist, just someone who’s followed things closely and thinks it might be helpful to summarise for those who haven’t, or who don’t speak much Dutch.)
Firstly, as in many other countries, it seems like we are definitely undergoing some kind of second wave. New infections are now running at about 500 per day - 3,600 in the last week - far off the peak of a few months ago, but also way above the level of a couple of months ago 
Unsurprisingly, most infections concentrated in Rotterdam and Amsterdam; two cities with large, mobile populations. Things looked awful a few weeks ago, but seem to have stabilized a bit now
(Arguably because mayors took a firm line on mask use...?)
(Arguably because mayors took a firm line on mask use...?)
Nationwide, there are thought to be somewhere between 16,000 and 44,000 people currently infected - which is again a lot higher than two months ago, but way down from the peak in March - and also lower than last week
The R0 (that is, the average number of people each infected person passes the virus on to) rose worryingly for several weeks but seems to have come down and stabilized a bit, and now sits at around 1, which is not ideal but pretty good under the circumstances
The number of tests being taken has risen sharply - roughly tripled in the last month- but the proportion which are positive has also gone up, from 0.6% six weeks ago to nearly four times that (2.2%) now (although lower now than a week ago)
The good news is that so far, rising infections haven’t translated into rising ICU admissions or deaths. 24 people died from the virus in the last week, compared with 32 the week before,which is - we shouldn’t forget - really tragic, but way off the peak of a few months ago
Low deaths are probably partly because deaths/admissions are lagging indicators - people only go to hospital and/or die a few weeks after they’ve been infected. However, it’s also because new infections seem concentrated among young people, who don’t get really ill so often
In the last week, well over half of all new infections in the Netherlands were among people aged 15-34, and only about a tenth among people aged over 60. It’s students and their friends getting it, not retirees going out for coffee
Most Dutch people who catch the virus do so from friends and family - last week, about 50% of new infections were caught at home, and another 13% from relatives. Only 7% caught it at work, and 0.4% on a plane
However, more worryingly, many people may be catching the virus on holiday: travel was identified as the likely infection source for about one-sixth of cases last week. At least a quarter of the newly-infected said they’d been abroad in the last two weeks
In summary, things are clearly much worse than a couple of months ago, but the good news is that second wave currently seems to be flattening (and perhaps declining a little) rather than rising, which is excellent news.
However, as always the worry is what comes next: winter, schools reopening etc. ~4000 infections a week is already a lot for a small country - and It wouldn’t take much for the numbers to get rapidly worse.
The government gets strong reviews from many, but some aspects (testing, the dreaded app) have undeniably been shaky. Masks are largely unheard of, and social distancing rules are (government admits) often ignored. The intelligent lockdown worked out ok, but isn’t *that* good.
Personally, I’d stand by what I said a few weeks ago: there’s a chance things could turn out very well - but also a sense that many people are acting recklessly, that bi-weekly lectures from the government aren’t enough.
Latest data: encouraging.
Outlook: fragile.
Latest data: encouraging.
Outlook: fragile.
The source for all the data is here (in Dutch):
rivm.nl/sites/default/…
And some further thoughts from me (from a couple of weeks ago) on what it all means here:
rivm.nl/sites/default/…
And some further thoughts from me (from a couple of weeks ago) on what it all means here:
And one little clarification: as a couple of people pointed out, in many cases, the source of infection isn’t known, so when I say “50% of infections were at home” etc I mean 50% *of the cases where the cause could be determined*. Thanks
