"If your name were Edward Moore, your candidacy would be a joke."
8/27/62 Boston Globe front page after 30-year-old Ted Kennedy's Democratic primary opponent, state Attorney General Edward McCormack (nephew of the Speaker of the House), made his famous debate attack:
It was desperate move by McCormack, who got clobbered by Kennedy in the Democratic primary a few weeks later. Kennedy went on to win nine more Massachusetts Democratic primaries (8 for the Senate and one for president) and finished his career 10-0 in them.
June 1946: 29-year-old WW II vet John F. Kennedy wins the Democratic primary in MA's 11th congressional district
"Sen. Ted Kennedy told jubilant supporters that his nephew's grandfather and his father would have been very proud of young Joe's clear-cut victory."
September 1986: 34-year-old Joseph P. Kennedy II wins the nomination for the House seat once held by his uncle, JFK:
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Here's a look back at primary nights from past NH campaigns, starting with 1980, when Ronald Reagan crushed Iowa winner George H.W. Bush and President Jimmy Carter defeated challengers Ted Kennedy & Jerry Brown:
1984: One of the biggest primary night surprises in NH history, as Gary Hart, a polling also-ran just weeks before, not only beats but wallops the front-runner, former VP Walter Mondale:
1988: The classic NBC music returns as VP George H.W. Bush, 8 days after his shocking 3rd place Iowa finish, bounces back to handily defeat Bob Dole and reclaim his front-runner's perch while neighboring state Gov. Michael Dukakis easily wins the Democratic primary:
Final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa GOP Caucus poll:
Trump 48%
Haley 20%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 8%
Trump’s share (48%) breaks George W. Bush’s record in 2000 of 43% for the highest support level in any final pre-GOP caucus DMR poll. His lead of 28 points also breaks Bush’s record of 23.
While Haley runs 2nd here, there are cautionary notes:
> Her unfavorable rating has soared to 46%, up from 31%. And her favorability has fallen from 59% to 48%
> 88% of Trump’s backers are extremely/very enthusiastic and 62% of DeSantis’s are. But the number for Haley is just 39%
One of Trump's key areas of strength: Those who say they will attend a caucus for the first time. This group tends to me much younger than the broader GOP electorate and in our poll breaks:
Of note:
*Massive generational divide on Israel/Hamas war; among 65+, 53% approve of Biden’s handling, 41% disapprove . Among 18-34, 20% approve & 70% disapprove
* Trump leads Biden 46-42% among 18-34-year-olds, a big shift from 2020 but roughly in line w/ other recent polls
The good news for Haley in the new CNN NH poll: She's up to 20%, in 2nd, and with Christie sitting at 14% there's at least potential for consolidation that could move her into contention.
The bad news: The overall dynamics are reminiscent of W/McCain '00
In 2000, when McCain blew out W in NH, he won indies 3-1. It turned GOP race into a Bush/McCain battle, but what did McCain in was that W used McCain's indie/Dem support against him, saying that the race was between a real Republican and one propped up by "mischievous" non-R's
Lost in the shuffle nationally last night: Republican Ed Durr, the truck driver who made headlines in '21 unseating NJ's state Senate President despite spending a just a couple hundred bucks, was defeated for re-election - part of a big night for NJ Dems: newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/bu…
In '21 - the first off-year election of Biden's presidency -- NJ R's gained 6 Assembly seats, 1 in the Senate & nearly upset Gov. Phil Murphy. Last night, they lost 5 Assembly seats and made no gains in the Senate.
And obviously a similar story in VA -- after a great '21, with Glenn Youngkin winning the governorship and his party flipping 7 House of Delegates seats to gain control of the chamber, Dems re-took the House while R's failed to flip the Senate.