I’m going to count down the six most important elections — or “election questions” — in Massachusetts today, in some rough order that combines substantive stakes & suspense, because why not.
6. The state’s most conservative congressmember, Lynch, faces a progressive challenger. This has not drawn enough attn for an upset to be likely, but keep an eye on #MA08 still—esp. for future cycles. (I previewed via voting rights: theappeal.org/politicalrepor…)
5. #MA04: open seat could go to a progressive — but also veer right if most conservative benefits from a 7-way race to snatch primary.
4. We increasingly see talk of sheriffs matter a ton. Well, here’s a sheriff’s race that takes those powers seriously. theappeal.org/politicalrepor…
3. Progressives are trying to oust a bunch of moderate to conservative Dem lawmakers. Question: Will MA join NY, PA, NM, and more as states where they’ve pulled off multiple such wins this year? The twist: GOP governor’s PAC is helping some incumbents. (whatsontheballot.com)
2. Markey/Kennedy: A clash between 2 MA powerhouses doubles as a potential show of strength by AOC & allies
1. A wild/ugly campaign *plus* with an ideological clash *&* suspense makes me put Neal/Morse‘s #MA01 first.
Macron chose Michel Barnier, a conservative politician from the LR party.
This makes explicit the long-tacit alliance between Macronists + conservatives. *And* Macron is choosing someone he thinks the far-right (RN) won't bring down.
Step-back: Left coalition (NFP) won most seats on July 7 (roughly 190). But a priority for Macron was to avoid NFP governing.
Barnier's LR (right) have roughly 40 seats. Macronists only have roughly 170. Even combined, that's far from the majority of 277.
RN has 140.
Trick is: Even if you don't have an affirmative majority in France, you can (mostly) govern as long as there isn't a majority *AGAINST* you, a majority willing to depose you.
Macron was trying to find someone who'd avoid being taken down (=it's called "being censored").
This month was maybe the best stretch of content since we launched @boltsmag 2 years ago.
I'm really proud of all of these stories, & how they're bringing so many different facets of local politics, and their high stakes on criminal justice & voting rights, to life! ↓
1. Arizona voters face major choices in November, on whether election deniers will take over some of the most important election offices in the state — nay, in the country.
The article only gives the margins among likely voters, take or remove one point depending on the state, but not the numbers in an easy way. (link via @JoshuaGreen) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Morning Consult's national poll has Harris up 4%. Other than WI these are all within a couple of points of what you'd expect out of 4%. Separate polls with margins of errors & discrete polling errors can't align exactly, hence you throw them together!
Political situation in France is fairly jaw-dropping.
1. Elections were 7 weeks ago, & in France transition is quick. But still no new government, & it's not just bc there's no solution: Macron stalled, then announced a bizarre "Olympic truce," & is now stalling again.
2. The PM + Cabinet resigned promptly... but remain in office. There's something called "regime of ordinary affairs" in France, where a resigning Cabinet just does routine stuff. But this has been longest such regime ever in France. & resigned Cabinet working on next budget.
3. Ministers aren't supposed to vote in Parliament while in Cabinet. The outgoing Ministers had tended resignation and were sworn in to new Assembly, & voted in Assembly's July leadership elections... but a month later they're still serving in the Cabinet!!
Things remain stalled in France since July 7th elections.
Those saw Macron's party lose roughly 100 seats, & so any semblance of majority or plurality. And yet his outgoing cabinet remains in office despite ostensibly resigning in July.
But things moving more quickly now. ⬇️
No bloc or coalition got ANYTHING near a majority (277). An unprecedented situation in this institutional regime.
Left coalition (NFP), you'll recall, won most seats on July 7—around 190.
The outgoing Macronist PM, Gabriel Attal promptly resigned, as is tradition—but Macron signaled he had no interest in a transition, & declared a weird "Olympic truce." Attal has still be in office—this is longest a resigning Cabinet has been allowed to govern, ever in France.
2️⃣ In Arizona’s biggest county, there’s a big prosecutor election where the candidates differ starkly on abortion.
The GOP incumbent was prosecutor tapped by the Senate Republicans in 2018 during the Kavanaugh hearings to ask questions of Ford. boltsmag.org/arizona-aborti…