Thread by @ElbridgeColby

Superb & clear - & v important - piece from @RichardHaass on why US needs to be clear it would defend Taiwan & why consistent w US one China policy. Makes the compelling case very well. Bravo!

Some selections from this important piece follow.

foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite… 1/

"Time has come for US to intro a policy of strategic clarity: one that makes explicit that US would respond to any PRC use of force against Taiwan. Washington can make change in manner consistent w its 1 China policy. Indeed, would strengthen US-PRC relations in long term..." 2/

"Maintaining ambiguity will not keep peace in next 4 decades...Too many variable that made it wise course have fundamentally shifted...Whether US could prevail in Taiwan conflict is no longer certain, and trend lines move in PRC favor." 3/

"Unless US devotes signific resources to preparing for conflict in Taiwan Strait, it stands little chance of preventing a fait accompli." 🎯🎯🎯Fortunately, there is already Taiwan Defense Act courtesy of @HawleyMO & @RepGallagher to focus DOD on this: congress.gov/bill/116th-con…. 4/

& this is a bipartisan focus, see important @micheleflournoy piece here also highlighting fait acccompli danger re Taiwan: foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…. See also important work of D. Ochmanek of @RANDCorporation. 5/

.@RichardHaass then makes vital point clearly: "If US fails to respond to such PRC use of force, regional US allies, such as Japan & ROK, will conclude that US cannot be relied upon...These Asian allies wld then either accommodate PRC, leading to dissolution of US alliances..."6/

"& crumbling of balance of power or seek nuclear weapons...Either scenario wld greatly increase chance of war in a region that is central to world economy." Bingo. Taiwan is canary in coal mine for other Asian states. 7/

"US cld articulate this policy through Pres statement & Exec Order that..unequivocally states US wld respond shld Taiwan come under PRC armed attack. Statement wld make clear US wld not support TWN independence." (although @RichardHaass rightly points out TWN isn't pushing now)8/

"US shld station additional air&naval forces in region, redouble efforts to disperse forces to complicate PRC planning, & make preparing for a Taiwan contingency for @DeptofDefense planners." 👏👍🎯"US shld consult w Japan & ROK re what assist they'd offer during TWN conting."9/

"US shld pass law to impose severe sanctions on PRC shld it attack TWN. Shld coord w Asian & European allies so they send similar signals." 9/

"US allies in Asia already assume US will come to TWN defense. Deciding not to do so wld jeopardize these alliances...Strategic clarity aligns US policy w what US allies already expect." Bingo! 10/

And he closes by urging concrete rather than "symbol[ic]" steps re Taiwan. Exactly! 11/

My only quibble is that he unfairly/inaccurately characterizes Trump Admin's efforts on this front. But, hey, that's a minuscule price to pay! This is a great, important piece & signals US assessment of this absolutely vital issue has/is shifting. END/