Superb & clear - & v important - piece from @RichardHaass on why US needs to be clear it would defend Taiwan & why consistent w US one China policy. Makes the compelling case very well. Bravo!
"Time has come for US to intro a policy of strategic clarity: one that makes explicit that US would respond to any PRC use of force against Taiwan. Washington can make change in manner consistent w its 1 China policy. Indeed, would strengthen US-PRC relations in long term..." 2/
"Maintaining ambiguity will not keep peace in next 4 decades...Too many variable that made it wise course have fundamentally shifted...Whether US could prevail in Taiwan conflict is no longer certain, and trend lines move in PRC favor." 3/
"Unless US devotes signific resources to preparing for conflict in Taiwan Strait, it stands little chance of preventing a fait accompli." 🎯🎯🎯Fortunately, there is already Taiwan Defense Act courtesy of @HawleyMO & @RepGallagher to focus DOD on this: congress.gov/bill/116th-con…. 4/
.@RichardHaass then makes vital point clearly: "If US fails to respond to such PRC use of force, regional US allies, such as Japan & ROK, will conclude that US cannot be relied upon...These Asian allies wld then either accommodate PRC, leading to dissolution of US alliances..."6/
"& crumbling of balance of power or seek nuclear weapons...Either scenario wld greatly increase chance of war in a region that is central to world economy." Bingo. Taiwan is canary in coal mine for other Asian states. 7/
"US cld articulate this policy through Pres statement & Exec Order that..unequivocally states US wld respond shld Taiwan come under PRC armed attack. Statement wld make clear US wld not support TWN independence." (although @RichardHaass rightly points out TWN isn't pushing now)8/
"US shld station additional air&naval forces in region, redouble efforts to disperse forces to complicate PRC planning, & make preparing for a Taiwan contingency for @DeptofDefense planners." 👏👍🎯"US shld consult w Japan & ROK re what assist they'd offer during TWN conting."9/
"US shld pass law to impose severe sanctions on PRC shld it attack TWN. Shld coord w Asian & European allies so they send similar signals." 9/
"US allies in Asia already assume US will come to TWN defense. Deciding not to do so wld jeopardize these alliances...Strategic clarity aligns US policy w what US allies already expect." Bingo! 10/
And he closes by urging concrete rather than "symbol[ic]" steps re Taiwan. Exactly! 11/
My only quibble is that he unfairly/inaccurately characterizes Trump Admin's efforts on this front. But, hey, that's a minuscule price to pay! This is a great, important piece & signals US assessment of this absolutely vital issue has/is shifting. END/
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"Can the U.S. and its allies deter all these rivals—including Iran and North Korea—at the same time, given the decay in the West’s military-industrial base and the unwillingness of voters to spend dramatically more on defense?"
"Keith Kellogg: “Because the crises erupt at the same time, the capability is not there to handle all simultaneously, and it gets out of control,” he said. “The ability to react is limited. You’re stretched, and you never want to be stretched.” 2/
"While the U.S. and the European nations have moved to increase military production, including at brand-new ammunition plants, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, these steps are nowhere near sufficient for the requirements of modern conflict, they say." 3/
"Admiral Wikoff, who heads the U.S. naval efforts in the Middle East, shared the blunt assessment, saying that not only have U.S. strikes and defensive efforts done little to change the Houthis’ behavior, it now appears unlikely the group will be swayed by military force." 1/
"“The solution is not going to come at the end of a weapon system,” Wikoff said. “We have certainly degraded their capability. There's no doubt about that. We've degraded their ability,” he said. “However, have we stopped them? No.” 2/
"An unclassified report issued this past June by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, or DIA, found container shipping in the region plunged by 90% from December 2023 through mid-February 2024." 3/
“And day after day the drones keep coming, forcing the American military to burn through hundreds of multi-million dollar missiles on a mission with no end in sight.” 1/ politico.com/news/2024/08/0…
“It’s a battle that has emerged as the United States’ most expansive and enduring military operation currently underway, a campaign that risks chewing through munitions the Pentagon would rather stockpile for a potential confrontation with China.” 2/
“It also in some ways contradicts Biden’s declaration last month, as he announced that he was ending his reelection campaign, that he is the first president of this century to “report to the American people that the United States is not at war anywhere in the world.” 3/
“German defence minister Boris Pistorius has criticised his government for approving less than a fifth of the budget increase he said was needed by Germany’s military, in stark remarks on the eve of a Nato summit in Washington.” 1/ on.ft.com/4cRzqSp
“I got a lot less than I asked for. That’s annoying for me because it means I can’t initiate certain things at the speed that . . . the threat level requires,” Pistorius said.” 2/
Indeed.
“All eyes are now on Germany and on what we are doing, considering we’re the biggest EU member state and make the largest military contribution in Europe . . . We have a certain responsibility and we will live up to it,” a senior government official said.” 3/
Don't take it from me. Excellent, sound piece @fstockman @nytimes.
"The US simply can’t do everything everywhere all at once, by itself. The future requires well-armed, capable allies. The indispensable nation has to be a bit less indispensable." 1/
Gen. Dwight Eisenhower, NATO’s first supreme allied commander Europe, felt strongly that his mission was to get Europeans “back on their military feet” — not for American troops to become the permanent bodyguard for Brussels and Berlin." 2/
"“If in 10 years, all American troops stationed in Europe for national defense purposes have not been returned to the United States,” Eisenhower wrote of NATO in 1951, “then this whole project will have failed.” 3/
President Trump is spot on to warn of the danger of World War III and the urgent need to prevent it in ways that protect our key interests.
This superb piece from @OAWestad @ForeignAffairs breathes the right spirit for how to do so.
We should want a decent peace. Not war. 1/
"Xi Jinping and the CCP leadership are convinced the U.S. main objective is to prevent China's rise no matter what. [Yet] China's own statements regarding its international ambitions are so bland as to be next to meaningless." 2/
"All current evidence points toward China making military plans to one day invade Taiwan, producing a war between China and the United States just as the Schlieffen Plan helped produce a war between Germany and Britain." 3/