Former Pentagon, 2018 National Defense Strategy, inter alia. Author of Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict. Views my own.
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Nov 20 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
I wasn't referring so much to your influence on the @POTUS administration as to your track record in assessing the war. I happily invite comparisons to my own.
It's essential to understand that @POTUS @VP administration is leaving a *terrible situation* for @realDonaldTrump @JDVance.
Senior NSC official: "They’re in a very difficult, extremely difficult situation with Russia, in egregious ways, continuing to escalate this conflict." 1/
"Unfortunately, that is part and parcel of what we have seen throughout this time, which is Russia’s willingness to continue to up the ante."
So the battlefield situation is "extremely difficult" and Russia is willing to escalate. Terrible. 2/
It’s no wonder @VP & Liz Cheney are aligning against @realdonaldtrump.
More than anyone, he is taking on the uber-hawks in D.C. He’s made an essential effort and it’s taken exceptional vision and steadfastness on his part.
It’s a key reason why electing him is so vital. 1/
I vividly recall in 2016 when @realDonaldTrump was the first Republican leader to say publicly that the Iraq War was a huge mistake.
Everyone basically already knew that. But no other GOP leader had the courage to say it. He did. 2/
Oct 30 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Don't take it from me:
@SecAFOfficial:
"China thinks it will be able to invade Taiwan by 2027 and has developed a technology edge in many key areas—but it is artificial intelligence that may be the decisive factor should conflict erupt, Kendall said Oct. 29." 1/
Kendall: “They’re working very hard to meet that goal. I have no idea what Xi Jinping will do in 2027, but I am pretty sure that his military will tell him they’re ready, and we’ll be in a period of much greater risk.” 2/
Oct 29 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
“After four years of Biden's presidency, Moscow and Beijing stand together as the greatest threat to American interests since the end of the Cold War…Should the Democrats regain the White House in two weeks' time it is hard to imagine anything but more of the same misery.” 1/
“That's why those who decry Trump's 'divisiveness' should think again, at least when it comes to the global stage, and recognize that his capacity to split opinion could play to the advantage of the US. The mere prospect of a Trump victory is already making a difference.” 2/
Oct 28 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
🎯🎯🎯 @JDVance:
“A very significant difference between @VP and @realDonaldTrump is Harris would like to subsidize Europeans not taking care of their own security. Trump wants Europe to step up big time to become a real ally of the U.S. and not just a dependent.” 1/
“Of course, we’re going to honor our NATO commitments. But I think it’s important that we recognize that NATO is not just a welfare client.” 2/
Oct 24 • 20 tweets • 3 min read
Don't take it from me:
"A full-scale [European] land war in their own territory...may need to be fought without the full firepower of the US, the indispensable ally that ensured the region’s security through the Cold War and ever since." 1/
bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-…
"Yet Trump’s provocative comments reflect a current of thinking that transcends Washington’s political divide and may prevail whoever wins the US presidential election in November: that European governments should build their own powerful militaries..." 2/
Oct 22 • 23 tweets • 5 min read
A very helpful corrective to the tendentious, propagandistic history of NATO we are so often subjected to.
Marc Trachtenberg is one of the leading Cold War historians.
We should look at NATO with real historical understanding. Not agitprop. 1/ cato.org/policy-analysi…
“I also knew that threats of abandonment were often made during the Cold War period. What Trump had said was less anomalous than people seemed to think.” 2/
Oct 15 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
At the core of any definition of fascism is aggressive, expansionist militarism.
Calling a contemporary American political movement that is explicitly running on peace and avoiding World War III is therefore presumptively absurd. 1/
It's especially ironic coming from people - themselves never elected - who actively sought to frustrate @realDonaldTrump efforts to *withdraw our military forces* from long-running military campaigns.
In all sincerity, I think that Kevin Williamson is right that the neo-conservatives fit most naturally on the "rightward-most fringe of the Democratic Party."
(I use the term in the most positive sense, not as a term of opprobrium.) 1/
wsj.com/politics/where…
Why? Neo-conservatism is basically *hawkish liberalism.* It's the proposition that liberalism in international affairs is correct, but that it needs to be implemented forcefully and with strength.
Neo-conservatives were, not coincidentally, often Democrats until the 1980s. 2/
Oct 5 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Why am I increasingly worried about our resolve and ability to defend Taiwan?
1) Taiwan is a very important but not existential interest for America. The real focus is denying China regional hegemony there. Thus defending Taiwan must make cost-benefit sense for Americans. 1/2) China has continued its historic, awing military buildup. Even @POTUS Administration says it’s preparing for war and aiming to have the PLA ready by 2027. The military balance has dramatically eroded. 2/
Oct 1 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We’ve got to be *super real* about what our defined industrial base can do. We can’t live in fantasy land.
“The U.S. Navy’s next ballistic-missile submarine is late and over budget—and the overrun might nearly quintuple the service's projections.” 1/ defenseone.com/defense-system…
“Our independent analysis calculated likely cost overruns that are more than six times higher than Electric Boat’s estimates and almost five times more than the Navy’s. As a result, the government could be responsible for hundreds of millions of dollars.” 2/
Sep 26 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
"The realities of modern warfare suggest the influence of new technologies is, for now at least, somewhat less transformative than Silicon Valley’s most zealous advocates suggest."
The evolution of war seems more evolutionary than transformational. 1/
foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/20/sil…
"For all the important but discrete successes that the authors point to...it has produced fewer results at scale and has not transformed the Pentagon’s broader acquisitions process." 2/
Sep 21 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
The tradeoffs debate is now clearly settled.
There were tradeoffs, and they have been significant. There may still be room to rectify them and revert to a Taiwan defense posture, but it will be very hard and require real clarity of purpose. 1/
wsj.com/world/taiwan-l…
"Gaza and Ukraine, both of which involve countries the U.S. supports, have highlighted the limitations of the Western military-industrial base and raised a critical question for Taiwan’s survival: What if the island finds itself short of weapons in a conflict with China?" 2/
Sep 14 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
“Now, European nations are finding it difficult to give up those peacetime benefits, even as the war in Ukraine has revived Cold War-era tensions and the U.S. tries to shift its focus to China. Most are failing to get their armies in fighting shape.” 1/ wsj.com/world/europe/e…
“That means—despite promises to raise military spending—defense ministers say they are struggling to get what they need. In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, military bases are crumbling or have been converted to civilian use…” 2/
Aug 28 • 53 tweets • 14 min read
I am profoundly, deeply, and consistently committed to putting Americans' interests first.
A free Taiwan is better for America.
*But only if it can be done at a reasonable level of cost and risk.* If it cannot, we cannot destroy our military in a losing, highly costly war. 1/
America's core interest is in preventing China from dominating Asia, the world's largest market area. Keeping Taiwan free is better for that goal.
But it is not essential. We can pursue this goal without Taiwan, albeit at a much higher cost and more difficulty. 2/
Aug 24 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
The key:
"Can the U.S. and its allies deter all these rivals—including Iran and North Korea—at the same time, given the decay in the West’s military-industrial base and the unwillingness of voters to spend dramatically more on defense?"
"Keith Kellogg: “Because the crises erupt at the same time, the capability is not there to handle all simultaneously, and it gets out of control,” he said. “The ability to react is limited. You’re stretched, and you never want to be stretched.” 2/
Aug 9 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
What a fiasco.
"Admiral Wikoff, who heads the U.S. naval efforts in the Middle East, shared the blunt assessment, saying that not only have U.S. strikes and defensive efforts done little to change the Houthis’ behavior, it now appears unlikely the group will be swayed by military force." 1/
voanews.com/a/houthis-unde…
"“The solution is not going to come at the end of a weapon system,” Wikoff said. “We have certainly degraded their capability. There's no doubt about that. We've degraded their ability,” he said. “However, have we stopped them? No.” 2/
Aug 8 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Strategery:
“And day after day the drones keep coming, forcing the American military to burn through hundreds of multi-million dollar missiles on a mission with no end in sight.” 1/ politico.com/news/2024/08/0…
“It’s a battle that has emerged as the United States’ most expansive and enduring military operation currently underway, a campaign that risks chewing through munitions the Pentagon would rather stockpile for a potential confrontation with China.” 2/
Jul 9 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Rightly so.
“German defence minister Boris Pistorius has criticised his government for approving less than a fifth of the budget increase he said was needed by Germany’s military, in stark remarks on the eve of a Nato summit in Washington.” 1/ on.ft.com/4cRzqSp
“I got a lot less than I asked for. That’s annoying for me because it means I can’t initiate certain things at the speed that . . . the threat level requires,” Pistorius said.” 2/
Jul 7 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Don't take it from me. Excellent, sound piece @fstockman @nytimes.
"The US simply can’t do everything everywhere all at once, by itself. The future requires well-armed, capable allies. The indispensable nation has to be a bit less indispensable." 1/
Gen. Dwight Eisenhower, NATO’s first supreme allied commander Europe, felt strongly that his mission was to get Europeans “back on their military feet” — not for American troops to become the permanent bodyguard for Brussels and Berlin." 2/
