.@realDonaldTrump common sense policy is getting results:

"European Nato members are holding talks about increasing the alliance’s target for defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP at its annual summit next June partly in anticipation of Donald Trump’s return as president." 1/ Here's this *insane* idea: Europe should spend at least as much to defend itself as Americans do! Crazy, right? No: Common sense!

Europeans know they need to do this. They just need to be pressed, as @realDonaldTrump has done, not let off the hook, as @POTUS has. 2/

Now that voters have clearly discredited Liz Cheney and the associated brand of extreme hawkishness, Democrats might consider working with the new Republican Party that is *actually much more moderate and sensible* on foreign and security issues.

Observe: 1/ The new GOP led by @realDonaldTrump is focused on:

- Ending wars and avoiding new ones.

- Reducing the threat of nuclear war.

- Ensuring the military spends its money wisely and efficiently.

- Ensuring accountability in the intelligence community and the security services. 2/

This is the shockingly bad military situation @POTUS is leaving @realDonaldTrump. Profoundly irresponsible and dangerous.

America's defenses are deep in a hole and it won't be easy to get out of it. @realDonaldTrump has laid out the way. "“God forbid we end up in a full-scale war with the PRC,” Jake Sullivan said. “But any war with a country like the PRC, a military like the PRC, is going to involve the exhaustion of munition stockpiles very rapidly.” 2/

From @n_roettgen:

"Europe, however, squandered the time it should have spent investing more heavily into the relationship—including by building up its own defenses...European leaders cannot simply shift the blame for their predicament to Washington." 1/

foreignaffairs.com/europe/europe-… "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 should have been the final wake-up call, creating real momentum behind Europe’s effort to become a credible security actor in its own right. Instead, once again, it relied on the United States to take the lead in a European war." 2/

I wasn't referring so much to your influence on the @POTUS administration as to your track record in assessing the war. I happily invite comparisons to my own.

Below are a few. 1/

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1859154619290542523

It's essential to understand that @POTUS @VP administration is leaving a *terrible situation* for @realDonaldTrump @JDVance.

Senior NSC official: "They’re in a very difficult, extremely difficult situation with Russia, in egregious ways, continuing to escalate this conflict." 1/ "Unfortunately, that is part and parcel of what we have seen throughout this time, which is Russia’s willingness to continue to up the ante."

So the battlefield situation is "extremely difficult" and Russia is willing to escalate. Terrible. 2/

whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

It’s no wonder @VP & Liz Cheney are aligning against @realdonaldtrump.

More than anyone, he is taking on the uber-hawks in D.C. He’s made an essential effort and it’s taken exceptional vision and steadfastness on his part.

It’s a key reason why electing him is so vital. 1/ I vividly recall in 2016 when @realDonaldTrump was the first Republican leader to say publicly that the Iraq War was a huge mistake.

Everyone basically already knew that. But no other GOP leader had the courage to say it. He did. 2/

Don't take it from me:

@SecAFOfficial:

"China thinks it will be able to invade Taiwan by 2027 and has developed a technology edge in many key areas—but it is artificial intelligence that may be the decisive factor should conflict erupt, Kendall said Oct. 29." 1/ Kendall: “They’re working very hard to meet that goal. I have no idea what Xi Jinping will do in 2027, but I am pretty sure that his military will tell him they’re ready, and we’ll be in a period of much greater risk.” 2/

“After four years of Biden's presidency, Moscow and Beijing stand together as the greatest threat to American interests since the end of the Cold War…Should the Democrats regain the White House in two weeks' time it is hard to imagine anything but more of the same misery.” 1/

https://twitter.com/mpalmond/status/1851263284156018731

“That's why those who decry Trump's 'divisiveness' should think again, at least when it comes to the global stage, and recognize that his capacity to split opinion could play to the advantage of the US. The mere prospect of a Trump victory is already making a difference.” 2/

🎯🎯🎯 @JDVance:

“A very significant difference between @VP and @realDonaldTrump is Harris would like to subsidize Europeans not taking care of their own security. Trump wants Europe to step up big time to become a real ally of the U.S. and not just a dependent.” 1/ “Of course, we’re going to honor our NATO commitments. But I think it’s important that we recognize that NATO is not just a welfare client.” 2/

Don't take it from me:

"A full-scale [European] land war in their own territory...may need to be fought without the full firepower of the US, the indispensable ally that ensured the region’s security through the Cold War and ever since." 1/

bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-… "Yet Trump’s provocative comments reflect a current of thinking that transcends Washington’s political divide and may prevail whoever wins the US presidential election in November: that European governments should build their own powerful militaries..." 2/

A very helpful corrective to the tendentious, propagandistic history of NATO we are so often subjected to.

Marc Trachtenberg is one of the leading Cold War historians.

We should look at NATO with real historical understanding. Not agitprop. 1/ cato.org/policy-analysi… “I also knew that threats of abandonment were often made during the Cold War period. What Trump had said was less anomalous than people seemed to think.” 2/

At the core of any definition of fascism is aggressive, expansionist militarism.

Calling a contemporary American political movement that is explicitly running on peace and avoiding World War III is therefore presumptively absurd. 1/ It's especially ironic coming from people - themselves never elected - who actively sought to frustrate @realDonaldTrump efforts to *withdraw our military forces* from long-running military campaigns.

Is trying to end the forever wars fascist? 2/

newyorker.com/magazine/2022/…

In all sincerity, I think that Kevin Williamson is right that the neo-conservatives fit most naturally on the "rightward-most fringe of the Democratic Party."

(I use the term in the most positive sense, not as a term of opprobrium.) 1/

wsj.com/politics/where… Why? Neo-conservatism is basically *hawkish liberalism.* It's the proposition that liberalism in international affairs is correct, but that it needs to be implemented forcefully and with strength.

Neo-conservatives were, not coincidentally, often Democrats until the 1980s. 2/

Why am I increasingly worried about our resolve and ability to defend Taiwan?

1) Taiwan is a very important but not existential interest for America. The real focus is denying China regional hegemony there. Thus defending Taiwan must make cost-benefit sense for Americans. 1/ 2) China has continued its historic, awing military buildup. Even @POTUS Administration says it’s preparing for war and aiming to have the PLA ready by 2027. The military balance has dramatically eroded. 2/

We’ve got to be *super real* about what our defined industrial base can do. We can’t live in fantasy land.

“The U.S. Navy’s next ballistic-missile submarine is late and over budget—and the overrun might nearly quintuple the service's projections.” 1/ defenseone.com/defense-system… “Our independent analysis calculated likely cost overruns that are more than six times higher than Electric Boat’s estimates and almost five times more than the Navy’s. As a result, the government could be responsible for hundreds of millions of dollars.” 2/

"The realities of modern warfare suggest the influence of new technologies is, for now at least, somewhat less transformative than Silicon Valley’s most zealous advocates suggest."

The evolution of war seems more evolutionary than transformational. 1/

foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/20/sil… "For all the important but discrete successes that the authors point to...it has produced fewer results at scale and has not transformed the Pentagon’s broader acquisitions process." 2/

The tradeoffs debate is now clearly settled.

There were tradeoffs, and they have been significant. There may still be room to rectify them and revert to a Taiwan defense posture, but it will be very hard and require real clarity of purpose. 1/

wsj.com/world/taiwan-l… "Gaza and Ukraine, both of which involve countries the U.S. supports, have highlighted the limitations of the Western military-industrial base and raised a critical question for Taiwan’s survival: What if the island finds itself short of weapons in a conflict with China?" 2/

“Now, European nations are finding it difficult to give up those peacetime benefits, even as the war in Ukraine has revived Cold War-era tensions and the U.S. tries to shift its focus to China. Most are failing to get their armies in fighting shape.” 1/ wsj.com/world/europe/e… “That means—despite promises to raise military spending—defense ministers say they are struggling to get what they need. In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, military bases are crumbling or have been converted to civilian use…” 2/

I am profoundly, deeply, and consistently committed to putting Americans' interests first.

A free Taiwan is better for America.

*But only if it can be done at a reasonable level of cost and risk.* If it cannot, we cannot destroy our military in a losing, highly costly war. 1/ America's core interest is in preventing China from dominating Asia, the world's largest market area. Keeping Taiwan free is better for that goal.

But it is not essential. We can pursue this goal without Taiwan, albeit at a much higher cost and more difficulty. 2/

The key:

"Can the U.S. and its allies deter all these rivals—including Iran and North Korea—at the same time, given the decay in the West’s military-industrial base and the unwillingness of voters to spend dramatically more on defense?"

That's the reality of the situation. 1/

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1827289768243216426

"Keith Kellogg: “Because the crises erupt at the same time, the capability is not there to handle all simultaneously, and it gets out of control,” he said. “The ability to react is limited. You’re stretched, and you never want to be stretched.” 2/