And I've stumbled across a factor which not enough people are talking about: the winter of 2018/2019.
The charts tell the story.
Thread.
It must be noted again that I don't have the final data for 2018/2019. So I can't be sure, until then. I will have to update when final data is published.
Excess deaths in Q2 2020 are at least partially the result of a mild 2018/2019 winter season.
Deaths caused by lockdown itself -hard to estimate- are also a factor.
Remaining excess deaths caused by Covid-19 are likely to be much lower than officially recognised.