Thread by @GrahamNeary

I'm still unsatisfied with the Covid-19 narrative, so I've had another look at the data.

And I've stumbled across a factor which not enough people are talking about: the winter of 2018/2019.

The charts tell the story.

Thread.

Let me remind you that the official Covid-19 death toll in Ireland is 1,777 (this is admitted to include non-Covid deaths).

A more useful number is total excess deaths from March to July. This is c. 850-900.

Seasonal flu annually causes excess deaths of 200-500, up to 1,000.

That's why Leo Varadkar, himself a doctor, said it would be "a very pleasant surprise" if Covid-19 caused fewer than 1,000 deaths.

As total excess deaths are estimated to be only 850-900, including deaths caused by lockdown itself, Covid-19 was far less dangerous than expected.

But excess deaths from March to July don't tell the whole story.

Besides deaths caused by lockdown, we should also account for the "dry tinder" theory. Not a name I approve of.

This says that a mild winter/flu season leaves more people vulnerable to the next one. E.g. Sweden:

Let's look at Irish data. CSO provides monthly data back to 2005 (except for 2018/2019).

This allows me to illustrate for you that April 2020 was a bad month for mortality, but we have had worse months at least twice in living memory.

January 2017 and January 2009 were worse.

What if I look at the entire flu season, October-June, for each year?

I will use quarterly registration data for 2017/18 and 2018/19. (Important - I will have to update these charts when better data is available.)

Result: this has been the most dangerous season since 2005/06.

Interestingly, I get a different answer if I focus only on the period from January to June (i.e. peak Covid-19 season).

Year-to-date, 2020 has been less dangerous so far than both 2015 and 2018, and about the same as 2016.

Is the general population aware of this? Why not?

From a quarterly perspective, Q2 2020 (peak Covid season) was not very dangerous.

Q1 2018 was far more dangerous, and there are many other more dangerous quarters.

Despite having nearly 1,700 so-called "Covid deaths", Q2 2020 was less dangerous than both Q1 2020 and Q4 2019.

Which is not to imply that Q2 2020 was entirely normal.

I've added average seasonal mortality for each quarter to the chart in red.

You can see that the blue line finishes above the red line, i.e. that mortality in Q2 2020 was higher than usual Q2 mortality.

Now let's apply the theory, and see whether a deficit of deaths from 2018/2019 could help to explain the subsequent excess.

It must be noted again that I don't have the final data for 2018/2019. So I can't be sure, until then. I will have to update when final data is published.

Provisional data says that deaths were running below average from Q4 2018 until Q1 2020, just prior to the Covid-19 surge.

And the excess deaths in Q2 2020 do not even fully reverse the deficit.

In other words, total deaths since Q4 2018 look below average, despite Covid-19.

This would be consistent with a moderate flu season in 2018/2019 and warmer weather than average during that season.

It will take some time for the final data to be released, but it does appear very likely that the 2018/2019 season saw lower-than-average mortality.

Conclusions:

Excess deaths in Q2 2020 are at least partially the result of a mild 2018/2019 winter season.

Deaths caused by lockdown itself -hard to estimate- are also a factor.

Remaining excess deaths caused by Covid-19 are likely to be much lower than officially recognised.