Research has shown demos give "cognitive legitimacy:" making a product plausible & inevitable. This paper on Shark Tank shows the more prepared (coherent, fact-based, narrative) the pitch, the more legitimate it seems & the more $ it raises! 1/4
Good entrepreneurs (as well as scam artists 👇) use demos and prototypes as part of an overall push for legitimacy. They are an important symbol of success for companies 2/4
Demos work in established companies, with caveats. If you are trying to pitch a novel idea to your boss, they will think you more creative & persuasive if you do a simple (crude) demo. If the idea isn’t novel, showing prototypes makes your boss think you are LESS creative. 3/4
We end with a famously effective demos. Watch how Jobs builds legitimacy: 1) Tells a story about why Apple’s win was inevitable 2) Demo'ed & described, the (secretly barely working) product 3) Combined personal style with careful preparation 4/4
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AI detectors have high flaw positives & teacher intuition seems to work even worse: “Here we show in two experimental studies that novice and experienced teachers could not identify texts generated by ChatGPT among student-written texts.”
Probably the most consequential technology that should have been “obvious” but wasn’t:
🌾The moldboard plow. As this excerpt from Mann's 1491 shows, it was a simple idea which China had for nearly 2k years before Europe! It was basically a prerequisite for the Enlightenment.
The invention of the moldboard plow in Europe was at least a millennia closer to the invention of the iPhone than it was to the invention of the moldboard plow in China!
Plus:
🚲The wheel was invented surprisingly late & maybe only once (as anything other than a toy). It came after sailboats & harps, and was not used at all in the Americas
🐴And the horse collar, a simple invention that sped up plowing by 50%, wasn't common in Europe until 1000
I asked the Devin AI agent to go on reddit and start a thread where it will take website building requests
It did that, solving numerous problems along the way. It apparently decided to charge for its work. Going to take it down before it fools anyone... reddit.com/r/forhire/comm…
Agents are going to open a whole bunch of cans of worms.
It was actively monitoring the thread to take offers.
One thing business analysts miss is that many of the people at the AI labs are true believers that they are building AGI, and soon.
You don't have to think that they can do it, but, if you don't take their sincere beliefs into account, a lot of their strategy doesn't make sense.
The race for bigger models at the expense of improving existing models, the interlocking alliance deals where companies are funding and cooperating with competitors, the willingness to release models without extensive testing & just take the reputational risk in the short term...
The "its all sales hype" doesn't make a lot of sense upon consideration. Models are pretty fungible, GPT-4 class models prompt in similar ways. Convincing people you are building amazing future models doesn't generate lock-in for current ones & increases risks you don't deliver.
The modern economy rests on a single road in Spruce Pine, North Carolina. The road runs to the two mines that is the sole supplier of the quartz required to make the crucibles needed to refine silicon wafers.
There are no alternative sources known. From Conway’s Material World: