1) Whether we like it or not, religion is hugely influential worldwide. More than eight-in-ten people identify with a religious group.
Over the centuries, it has provided the foundation of peace and love, blood and war.
2) Because it crosses so many different boundaries in human experience, religion is notoriously difficult to define.
In my view, religion is largely a matter of faith, rather than scientifically verifiable propositions.
3) Reason can bring a person only so far, and then that person has to move beyond the limits of reason.
For the truth, if we seek it, perhaps lies buried somewhere deep inside our heart.
4) But even in financial markets, where participants worship Mammon rather than God, faith plays a larger role than our egos would like to admit.
5) Investing is all about conviction, but it is not built overnight. You’re bound to be disappointed if you follow others’ beliefs without question.
You’ll never have perfect information. There always comes a point when you have to take a leap of faith.
6) Everyone believes their religion will lead them down the right path to spiritual progress. In investing, most individuals also believe their philosophy is the right way to make money.
Regardless of the approach, one must have faith in their process to be successful long-term.
7) In the global macro world, we are all in search for a financial Truth—a belief that, somewhere buried deep within the market there is a sweet spot that, if properly tapped, can unleash a fortune.
8) Markets seem to be a polytheistic rather than a monotheistic faith. The objects of veneration change on a regular basis from stocks to bitcoin and gold.
9) These enthusiasms often have a cultlike quality with adherents inclined to pour scorn on unbelievers who “just don't get it”.
10) The strongest faith people have right now is about Big Tech and internet companies. Its become a new religion.
If there is one thing we can be certain of, investors will find a new religion.
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1) There are times when you learn something that explains everything.
While manufacturing activity is acutely sensitive to business cycles, did you know that services GDP did not shrink from one year to the next between the Korean war and the Great Recession?
2) Monthly business surveys show manufacturing has been contracting since November, and the downturn is confirmed by falls in container freight, diesel consumption, and industrial electricity sales.
1) If you are waiting for a recession or trying to figure out why the US economy has not yet entered a recession...
What if I told you something else is going on? 🧵
2) Historically, manufacturing has been acutely sensitive to business cycles.
Services GDP has not really shrunk from one year to the next from the Korean war until the Great Recession. That was a period encompassing 10 recessions.
3) Monthly business surveys show manufacturing has been contracting since November, and the downturn is confirmed by falls in container freight, diesel consumption, and industrial electricity sales.
1) I didn’t think it was possible, but I returned from my New York trip even more bullish.
I hosted a breakfast with long/short managers, a dinner with a younger group of CIOs and portfolio managers, and met one-on-one with various investors.
🧵
2) The macro folks are worried about rates volatility, the contraction in money supply, and tightening lending standards.
The equity guys are puzzled by the resilient earnings season and stock market going up despite bad breadth.