Jawad Mian Profile picture
Sep 3, 2020 10 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1) Whether we like it or not, religion is hugely influential worldwide. More than eight-in-ten people identify with a religious group.

Over the centuries, it has provided the foundation of peace and love, blood and war.
2) Because it crosses so many different boundaries in human experience, religion is notoriously difficult to define.

In my view, religion is largely a matter of faith, rather than scientifically verifiable propositions.
3) Reason can bring a person only so far, and then that person has to move beyond the limits of reason.

For the truth, if we seek it, perhaps lies buried somewhere deep inside our heart.
4) But even in financial markets, where participants worship Mammon rather than God, faith plays a larger role than our egos would like to admit.
5) Investing is all about conviction, but it is not built overnight. You’re bound to be disappointed if you follow others’ beliefs without question.

You’ll never have perfect information. There always comes a point when you have to take a leap of faith.
6) Everyone believes their religion will lead them down the right path to spiritual progress. In investing, most individuals also believe their philosophy is the right way to make money.

Regardless of the approach, one must have faith in their process to be successful long-term.
7) In the global macro world, we are all in search for a financial Truth—a belief that, somewhere buried deep within the market there is a sweet spot that, if properly tapped, can unleash a fortune.
8) Markets seem to be a polytheistic rather than a monotheistic faith. The objects of veneration change on a regular basis from stocks to bitcoin and gold.
9) These enthusiasms often have a cultlike quality with adherents inclined to pour scorn on unbelievers who “just don't get it”.
10) The strongest faith people have right now is about Big Tech and internet companies. Its become a new religion.

If there is one thing we can be certain of, investors will find a new religion.

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More from @jsmian

Jun 27, 2023
1) There are times when you learn something that explains everything.

While manufacturing activity is acutely sensitive to business cycles, did you know that services GDP did not shrink from one year to the next between the Korean war and the Great Recession?

That was a period… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2) Monthly business surveys show manufacturing has been contracting since November, and the downturn is confirmed by falls in container freight, diesel consumption, and industrial electricity sales. 

The ISM manufacturing PMI is below the 50-point threshold, consistent with the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
3) We are in a period very much like those ten recessions between 1950 and 2007, which saw manufacturing contract but services continue to expand.

This is an economic recession without a labor market recession. 

Are we going to see the labor market crack?

Is the recession… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 5 tweets
Jun 12, 2023
1) If you are waiting for a recession or trying to figure out why the US economy has not yet entered a recession...

What if I told you something else is going on? 🧵
2) Historically, manufacturing has been acutely sensitive to business cycles.

Services GDP has not really shrunk from one year to the next from the Korean war until the Great Recession. That was a period encompassing 10 recessions.
3) Monthly business surveys show manufacturing has been contracting since November, and the downturn is confirmed by falls in container freight, diesel consumption, and industrial electricity sales.
Read 14 tweets
May 24, 2023
1) I didn’t think it was possible, but I returned from my New York trip even more bullish.

I hosted a breakfast with long/short managers, a dinner with a younger group of CIOs and portfolio managers, and met one-on-one with various investors.

🧵
2) The macro folks are worried about rates volatility, the contraction in money supply, and tightening lending standards. 

The equity guys are puzzled by the resilient earnings season and stock market going up despite bad breadth.

The credit investors are surprisingly not as… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
3) Could it be the popularity of private credit is more of a business development opportunity than an investing one?
Read 7 tweets
Apr 1, 2023
1) “What’s your dream?”

My friend’s question surprised me.

Even more surprising was my silence; I didn’t have an answer.

🧵
2) That is so strange, I thought. I had spent my entire twenties dreaming.

When did I stop?
3) “It’s the possibility of a dream coming true that makes life interesting,” Paulo Coelho wrote in The Alchemist.

It was the book that first got me dreaming.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 24, 2023
1) Fasting has become popular for its health benefits. But what has always interested me is the spiritual dimension.

In every culture and religion in history, fasting has endured as an instinctive and essential practice. 

Learn more 🧵
2) Prophet Moses fasted for 40 days and 40 nights when he was waiting for the revelation on the mountain of Sinai.
3) The gospels record Prophet Jesus fasted for 40 days before undergoing an intense confrontation with Satan.
Read 18 tweets
Mar 21, 2023
1) Since mid-June, we have believed that the stock market is in a bottoming phase that will result in new highs.

Others believe that the sideways consolidation is a continuation pattern with a soon-to-be completed break to new lows.

Who is correct? 🧵 Image
2) Why it matters: More investment mistakes arise from a dogmatic mindset than from uncertainty and confusion.
3) “The constant lesson of history is the dominant role played by surprise,” as Peter Bernstein once said.

“Just when we are most comfortable with an environment and come to believe we finally understand it, the ground shifts under our feet.”
Read 11 tweets

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