1) There are times when you learn something that explains everything.

While manufacturing activity is acutely sensitive to business cycles, did you know that services GDP did not shrink from one year to the next between the Korean war and the Great Recession?

That was a period… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 2) Monthly business surveys show manufacturing has been contracting since November, and the downturn is confirmed by falls in container freight, diesel consumption, and industrial electricity sales. 

The ISM manufacturing PMI is below the 50-point threshold, consistent with the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

1) If you are waiting for a recession or trying to figure out why the US economy has not yet entered a recession...

What if I told you something else is going on? 🧵 2) Historically, manufacturing has been acutely sensitive to business cycles.

Services GDP has not really shrunk from one year to the next from the Korean war until the Great Recession. That was a period encompassing 10 recessions.

1) I didn’t think it was possible, but I returned from my New York trip even more bullish.

I hosted a breakfast with long/short managers, a dinner with a younger group of CIOs and portfolio managers, and met one-on-one with various investors.

🧵 2) The macro folks are worried about rates volatility, the contraction in money supply, and tightening lending standards. 

The equity guys are puzzled by the resilient earnings season and stock market going up despite bad breadth.

The credit investors are surprisingly not as… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

1) “What’s your dream?”

My friend’s question surprised me.

Even more surprising was my silence; I didn’t have an answer.

🧵 2) That is so strange, I thought. I had spent my entire twenties dreaming.

When did I stop?

1) Fasting has become popular for its health benefits. But what has always interested me is the spiritual dimension.

In every culture and religion in history, fasting has endured as an instinctive and essential practice. 

Learn more 🧵 2) Prophet Moses fasted for 40 days and 40 nights when he was waiting for the revelation on the mountain of Sinai.

1) Since mid-June, we have believed that the stock market is in a bottoming phase that will result in new highs.

Others believe that the sideways consolidation is a continuation pattern with a soon-to-be completed break to new lows.

Who is correct? 🧵 2) Why it matters: More investment mistakes arise from a dogmatic mindset than from uncertainty and confusion.

1) Besides SVB’s failure on Friday, another significant development went undetected.

Iran and Saudi Arabia have restored diplomatic ties after seven years of tense rivalry. 

🧵 2) Contrary to popular belief, the Middle East now has the least amount of geopolitical risk.

1) Get out of the dollar.

I spot another opportunity to buy stocks, bonds, and non-US currencies. 🧵 2) Stronger US data has reinforced a higher for longer interest rate stance.

This has helped the dollar relieve oversold conditions.

Stronger global growth, particularly in China, means the dollar bear market will resume.

1) “What’s your edge?”

It’s a question I have struggled with my whole career. 🧵 2) Not for a lack of trying, a reliable proprietary model—or some magical method—has remained elusive.

No special technique or trading approach has afforded me an unfair advantage.

1) What is my default state?

It’s a question I’ve been pondering. 🧵 2) By default state I mean the mental and emotional baseline in which I spend the most of my time.

1) What’s next for tech, FAANG, and Silicon Valley?

Revisit the spectacular shale boom-bust cycle. There are more similarities than you think.

Both were profitless technological revolutions funded by cheap capital and carrying enormous benefits to society.

Pay attention 🧵 2) The innovations of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing made it possible to extract shale oil.

Neither technology was entirely new, but they were both improved upon and combined to increase the commercial viability of shale gas.

1) What if I told you the S&P 500 will reach new record highs in six months and continue rising for a few more years.

Is that something you’d be interested in? 🧵 2) A lot of stock charts look like death right now. But zoom out and you notice something special.

A secular bull market is in progress.

1) What unsettles you?

Are you concerned about valuations?

You should read this. stray-reflections.com/article/264/A_… 2) Is it the earnings picture?

It’s not as bad as you think. Promise.

stray-reflections.com/article/262/Bu…

1) This year has been difficult for many investors, whether you are a novice or an experienced risk taker.

It would be useful to revisit today's money masters and see how they dealt with gut-wrenching loss. It always helps renew my ambition. 🧵 2) Paul Tudor Jones lost $10,000 when he was 22, and when he was 25 he lost about $50,000, which was all he had to his name.

1) There have been three major energy transitions: from wood and dung to coal, then to oil, and then to natural gas.

Each took an extremely long time, and none is yet complete. 2) Today we use more wood for fuel that at any other time in history. Nearly two billion people still rely on wood and dung for heating and cooking.

1) Don’t blame the Fed for your investment portfolios.

The fault lies squarely with Jeff Bezos and Richard Branson.

Let me explain. 🧵 2) With Stray Reflections, my work involves the study of dreams, particularly childhood fantasies of space travel.

What starts to happen when dreams come true?

1) A year ago on my friend @kimanncurtin's insistence, I took the Judgment Index test.

It confirmed what I so deeply intuit but keep buried. 🧵 2) “Your scores indicate that you are greatly undervaluing yourself. You consciously and subconsciously tell yourself that you aren’t good enough, or worthy enough. When self-esteem is low, so too is self-confidence. It NEEDS ATTENTION.”

1) We’re all proud of our accomplishments.

People introduce us by mentioning our greatest achievements.

But what if we were known for the absolute worst thing we’ve done?

I shudder at the thought. 🧵 2) “Man is not what he thinks he is,” wrote French novelist André Malraux said, “he is what he hides.”

Maryam turns three this month.

This is what I wrote when she was born. stray-reflections.com/article/33/The… 1) Unlike our other two girls, Zaynab and Fatima, Maryam arrived as expected, on the morning of December 14.

Saniha and I woke up early, drove thirty minutes to the hospital, and an hour later she was in my arms.

1) If there was an award for the combination of best market calls and worst actual portfolio manager—added points for actually having the right position and still f-ing it up—Todd Edgar would be in with a shot for this year. 2) This is not my assessment. It’s Todd’s own.

He was the founder and CIO of the macro hedge fund firm Atreaus Capital (and now runs Atreaus Family).

1) Remember when TIME honored @elonmusk as its Person of the Year, celebrating his role in driving the world’s shift towards sustainable energy and spacefaring civilization. 2) “Musk is our avatar of infinite possibility,” TIME’s editors professed.

“Our usher to the remade world, where shopworn practices are cast aside and the unprecedented becomes logical, where Earth and humanity can still be saved.”