Thread by @erlichya

Israel is now first in the world for daily cases of covid19 per capita.

How the hell did we get here?
A cautionary tale in this long thread >>>

Theoretically, Israel had all necessary components to excel the fight against covid19.
✅ A small country
✅ Good nationwide public health system
✅ Population that is used to emergency situations
✅ A de-facto island with only one main gate to the world

And we did phenomenally well in March-May (check the green curve). We flattened the curve swiftly and rapidly. In fact, at the end of May, covid19 was almost extinct, with about ONE daily case per million >>>

How did we do it? The Government placed a ban on flights from China in late Jan, canceling schools in mid March, and issuing a state wide lockdown in late March up to mid April.

It worked like a charm 😷->🤠!

>>>

But in mid May, the Government lost interest in covid19, the citizens lost trust in the Gov, and we are in a free fall since there due to a weird coalition of ultra-orthodox Jews, minorities who basically live in extra-territorial spaces, and covid-deniers e.g. @MLevitt_NP2013 🤢

Why the Gov lost interest?
In early March, we had our third elections within a year. This election resulted in another stand off between the pro-Bibi block and the anti-Bibi block. But with every election round, the pro-Bibi block lost a bit of power.

Now, Bibi is in a dire situation. He is not only the PM but also also indicted for bribery + fraud, which can result in a major time behind bars. This is not theoretical risk. Israel courts put before an ex-PM and ex-President in jail for bribery and rape, respectively.

By being the PM, Bibi can leverage political and legal assets to subvert his trial. So for him covid19 was great news.

In march, he held press conferences every evening, claiming that we are facing existential threat to the country and even to humanity. Time to unite 🇮🇱 he said

People in my country trust in the Government, especially when there is an emergency situations. So the leader of the anti-Bibi block* did the unbelievable move and formed with Bibi an "anti-corona coalition" on 5/17 (🐏+🐺=😱)
>>>

*name is unimportant. He's politically dead.

At this point, Bibi lost interest in covid19. On May 26, he held a press conference to celebrate the end of the pandemic. The main message: "Have fun" (תעשו חיים).

The problem is that the virus does not watch the conference and speaks only RNA.

Cases started climbing but were relatively low. Meanwhile, Bibi focused on harassing the court system and gaining personal tax benefits.
The public realized that covid19 is a tool to control them. An imminent threat in March become less important than Bibi tax benefits in June!

June. Cases keep raising. Two well-respect Professors/idiots (Weizmann + Israel space agency) claimed that there is no second wave based on their precise mathematical calculations so we can chill. And oh people chilled!
ynet.co.il/articles/0,734…
ynet.co.il/articles/0,734…

June 2020. This was fun.

Meanwhile, the Head of Public Health Services, Prof. Sigal Sadetsky, resigned. In March-May, she led the stay at home policy and was Bibi's right hand. But nobody wanted to listen to her anymore.

People were happy. The party pooper is gone 🥳🤡👍.

timesofisrael.com/senior-health-…

July. We now have more daily cases than in the first wave. Meanwhile covid19 deniers take control. These are really fun people: "You don't close the country for a few old dead dudes", "people die with covid19 not due to covid19", "the virus got weaker", "it is all political".

The Government is in total chaos. Plans on how to contain the virus are changed by the hour. Gov tries to impose restrictions but restaurant owners revolt 🖕. Police is helpless and Gov is paralyzed.

I don't blame the public. They felt betrayed by political maneuvers, helpless by the lack of real economic support system, tired by a long fight that just got back to square one, inspired by the taste of freedom, and backed by covid19 deniers.

End of July. The Gov appoints a Corona Czar. Well, this is at least what they tell the public. But everyone knows that he is just a straw man who cannot decide on anything (he is a brave guy and a well respected MD who knowingly took this kamikaze mission since the situation=💩).

The Czar does not like the country wide lock-down approach. He tried to put together a plan to stratify the country into many small areas and treat each one differently.

Sounds good?
No!

In August, most of the cases are in towns of ultra-orthodox Jews and Muslim minority villages. They felt that they are singled out and both groups live in quasi ex-territorial places where the police and the local municipalities have little control.

The Ultra-Orthodox Jews also have a strong political power and are part of the pro-Bibi group so he does not want to piss them off.

So THOUSANDS of them celebrated their Rabbi's grandchild wedding against the law without masks.

A newly minted Rabbi (24 year old asshole) threw together a huge after-Shabbat party. No masks are needed because God never hurt his believers.

Unfortunately, the virus is not Jewish and does not obey the Rabbies. Cases keep raising after plateauing in August. The strawman/czar tries to place restrictions on these places but get a cold shoulder from politicians.

Some blame him of being antisemitic and a Jew-hater.

So here we are today. We made the unbelievable! 👏💪😭 From being one of the best countries in the world in terms of fighting covid19, we became the top country in cases per capita. 20% of daily deaths are attributed to the disease. Tomorrow will pass the 1000th death.

Lessons:
Don't mix politics and covid19
Don't erode public trust
Be humble (especially scientists)
Provide economic support to people
Engage with all parts of your society. The virus does not give a fuck about sociology.
Don't open the eco too early.

Thanks for being with me!

This thread got tons of attention than I anticipated. Thanks a lot.
Some comments for more context:

1. I want emphasize that the Corona Czar is doing his best at this unbelievable situation. Currently, he is really the only hope, in my view.

2. Some comments thought that I was too harsh on the leader of the anti-Bibi block (Gantz). He is also a good guy that risked his political career to save the country from the virus. Unfortunately, while his intentions were good, his political future is gloomy.

3. It has been brought to my attention that one of the Prof. who declared in June that there is no second wave recently retracted his analysis. Better late than never.

There was a comment that I am using epiphany against the 24yr old Rabbi. FYI: that the same Rabbi told a kid with a severe genetic disease that he and his family can take their guards off and not fear the virus. I have no good words for this person. Sorry.