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THREAD: signs Biden is losing.
- The DNC. The Democrats were begging people to vote.
- Hillary Clinton Advised Biden not to concede.
- Biden gave an economic Speech back in July that was filed with repackaged Trump phrases.
- Biden started campaigning after saying he'd win from the basement.
- Biden started condemning violence after ignoring it for 3 months.
- Biden said he won't go to Kenosha, than did so after Trump.
- Biden recently took questions.
- During a speak, Biden asked "Do I look likely a radical socialist?" Which indicates he has been defined.
- Don Lemon said Biden had to address the violence because of the polls.
- Biden gave a speech on reopening schools, something he was against for some time.
- Biden said in Kenosha: "win or lose, I'm going down fighting. Somethings are worth losing over."
- Biden said he was against fracking in PA, after saying he was for it.
- Biden is trying to blame Trump for college football being cancelled.
- Biden said in the ABC interview: "Trump wants to defund the police." Which means Trump has defined Biden.
- Biden is running ads in VA, NV, NH, CO, ME, & MN. All states Hillary won.
- The DCCC is spending money a deep blue AZ district. O' Halleran's district.
- Biden said he would start campaigning after labor day. He has done 3 campaign events and it's not even labor day.
- Pelosi doesn't want debates.
- Biden wants fact checkers for debates, which means he can't beat Trump on the issues.
- Biden is accusing Trump of rushing the Covid-19 vaccine for political reasons.
- We are seeing more of Biden than Harris, which suggests Harris was a bad pick.
- Biden is repeating Trump's attack lines.
- Harris is responding to Trump's ads.
- Flip-Flopping like crazy.
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David Chapman
@davidchapman141
THREAD:
Why should we believe the polls are wrong again?

1. All the polls that were right in 2016 show a different race than the polls that failed in 2016. Democracy Institute, Rasmussen, Trafalgar, Zogby, Emerson, all show a different race than the other polls.
2. The methods of pollsters. It's September and so many polls are registered voter polls. At this time in 2016, many polls were LV polls.
Also, we went through 6 weeks where we had almost no polls. This was also a period where Trump started his comeback.
3. Biden campaign has been shifting all over the place. Their behavior does not say "up 7 points nationally" or "up 9 points in AZ"
4. The media behavior. For 3 weeks the media have talked about a tightening race with no public polls to offer.......
Read 14 tweets
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David Chapman
@davidchapman141
THREAD: Election analysis based on Historical trends, not polls. Let's start with Incumbent strength. In 1976, Ford's (R) Approval among republicans was 68% (Gallup). In 1980, Carter's (D) Approval among democrats was 50%. In 1992, Bush 41 Approval among republicans was 64%.
In 2020, Donald Trump approval among republicans is 91% (all numbers are from Gallup). Ford, Carter, and Bush 41's party had abandoned them and they lost. Trump's party support stands historically strong. Now, Primary performance.
Since 1912, 5 incumbents have lost re-election. Taft, Hoover, Ford, Carter, and Bush 41 all performed terribly in the primary and all of them lost. Since 1912, 7 incumbents have faced re-election during a bad economy. Coolidge, Truman, and the 5 previously mentioned.
Read 12 tweets
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David Chapman
@davidchapman141
2020 Primary vote totals.
Trump: 18,032,651
Biden: 17,660,139

Since 1912, only 3 incumbents have received more primary votes than their challenger. Eisenhower 1956, Nixon 1972, & Clinton 1996. All of them won re-election in landslides.
To clarify: only 3 incumbents, who didn't face a legitimate primary challenger, got more primary votes than their challenger. Jimmy Carter in 1980 got more primary vote than Reagan, but he had a contested convention.
Biden's total includes NY and NJ totals, I checked the Green Papers website. Also, the green papers website and wikipedia totals line up. The vote totals are current.
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