I was out of the loop when the employment report came out, so a belated take: overall, given where we are, it was "meh." 1/
To be more precise, the payroll number, based on a survey of employers, was meh. ~1 million jobs when you take out the temporary census hiring, which would be great in a normal economy but not when you're still 11 million down from Feb. 2/
And this number, by the way, was pretty much consistent with what other indicators, from credit card data to the Beige Book, were saying: growing, but rapid snapback is over 3/
But there was a big fall in the unemployment rate. How is that possible? Well, it's a different survey — one of households. And it's generally considered less reliable; maybe especially so now, with Covid depressing response rates 4/
When economic data don't seem to match the story you're getting from other sources, the odds are higher that the data are for whatever reason misleading. Important: you DON'T want to say that because you don't like what the data say. That's not the point 5/
We may get some clarity next month — which will be the last report before the election. The next rpt will also show some effects of benefit cuts. But right now this looks like an economy slowly clawing its way back but still a long way from recovery. 6/
