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James Baird Profile picture
@james_d_baird
Sep 4, 2020 • 8 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Everyday, a new book comes out on how to make great decisions.

If you bought each one, you’d go broke.

Here’s a 🧵 with the six books you absolutely must read.

I’d sell my shirt or skip meals to make sure these were on my shelf.
1. The Bible of decision science by Nobel Laureate Danny Kahneman: amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-…
2. The authoritative handbook on reframing problems by the genius practitioner @thomaswedell: amazon.com/gp/aw/d/163369…
3. The magestic case for designing systems with effect choice architecture by @CassSunstein and Nobel Laureate @R_Thaler: amazon.com/Nudge-Improvin…
4. The tour de force on integrative thinking by the eminent @RogerLMartin: amazon.com/Opposable-Mind…
5. The fun but subtly sophisticated guide to happiness by Sanford’s @wburnett and @DaveEvansDYL: amazon.com/Designing-Your…
6. Last but not least, the magnum opus of the prophet of our age, @nntaleb: amazon.com/Black-Swan-Imp…
What’d I miss? I’d love to see the books you’d recommend!

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More from @james_d_baird

James Baird Profile picture
Feb 14
brief response to Miles

he agrees that Presbyterians in the Middle Colonies “presumed” that government would “rhetorically affirm Christianity”

BUT he says I go “too far” by interpreting it as a case for gov “politically ensuring Christianity through by state action”

👇🏼
however, Presbyterians in the Middle Colonies didn’t merely assume a rhetorical support of Christianity

take, for example, the popular “Act for Suppressing Vice & Immorality,” variants of which were passed & enforced not only in New England but also the Presby hotbeds of PA & NJ
these acts enforced Christian public practice (though not ecclesiastical observance)

look at this blasphemy law from NJ Image
Read 17 tweets
James Baird Profile picture
Nov 27, 2021
elon uses business to make the future

buffett uses business to make money
if you want to speculate on the future, go long tesla

if you want to invest for a reasonable return, go long berkshire
think of buying tesla like philanthropy for humanity, with a fat-tail chance of big speculative gains and losses

think of berkshire like investing in a vehicle for capital preservation, with paper-thin tail risk of losing your principal over the long term
Read 4 tweets
James Baird Profile picture
May 23, 2021
I spent the weekend with a CIA operative and bomb-disposal expert.

Here’s what I learned 💡

1. Obsession > Intelligence

People who care orders of magnitude more than their peers outperform their smarter colleagues every day of the week—and by exceptional margins.
2. Risk > Ass Covering

You might get a nice watch after 40 years if you’re good at covering your ass.

But you won’t have much fun—and you definitely won’t move the needle for the agency or the nation.
3. Emergent Opportunities > Bureaucratic Objectives

The chance to make a real difference comes from real work in the real world.

“Handbook goals” mean nothing compared to situational opportunities that careful, thoughtful workers find on the front line.
Read 4 tweets
James Baird Profile picture
May 23, 2021
if decision science has proven anything over the past fifty years it’s this:

1) the future is unpredictable; but
2) human behavior is not

bezos mastered these truths 👇🏼
“I very frequently get the question: 'What's going to change in the next 10 years?'

I almost never get the question: 'What's not going to change in the next 10 years?'

And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two.
You can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time.

It's impossible to imagine a future where a customer says,

'Jeff I love Amazon; I just wish the prices were a little higher,' or 'I love Amazon; I just wish you'd deliver a little more slowly.’
Read 4 tweets
James Baird Profile picture
May 16, 2021
Tonight’s tweet storm by @naval in one place:
1
2
Read 9 tweets
James Baird Profile picture
May 2, 2021
Six threads on investing better than a Berkshire shareholder meeting:
1
2
Read 9 tweets

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