@meistefan1 zu Navalny: "Auf jeden Fall müssen hochrangige Leute davon wissen, wenn dieses Nervengift gegen eine so wichtige Person angewandt werden soll. Ob Putin selbst davon wusste, das kann ich nicht sagen. Aber das System Putin wusste davon."n-tv.de/politik/Das-Sy…
"Wenn Nowitschok bei einem Anschlag nachgewiesen werden kann, ist das eine klare Ansage. Dann weiß man, wer dahintersteckt."
"Es dürfte bei dem Anschlag durchaus darum gegangen sein, die wichtigste und sichtbarste Figur der Opposition auszuschalten. Aber sicher sollte auch Nawalnys Umfeld abgeschreckt und ganz generell Angst verbreitet werden."
"Das ist eine Botschaft über die Person Nawalny hinaus, an die Opposition und in die ganze Gesellschaft hinein, sich nicht gegen die Machteliten zu stellen."
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The US and Israel can degrade Iran's nuclear program and diminish its ability to attack neighbors.
But if the regime survive, Russia and China may help it to rearm; and it may become even more dangerous -- and able to present a third front in a China/Russia vs West war scenario.
If the current campaign is supposed to lead to regional stability in the Middle East and to the weakening of China's and Russia's global power, there is no other way than regime change.
Europeans have a strategic interest in helping the US and Israel to achieve such an outcome. As have the Gulf Arabs, Turkey and Japan, India and other Asian countries who oppose Chinese hegemonic ambitions.
Russia's war against Ukraine could have been the moment at which the Europeans would have gotten together and proved that their talk about "sovereignty", "learning the language of geopolitics", "Europe as a power" is a true ambition, backed up by deeds.
Yet that didn't happen. Only the North and the Northeast delivered. Most European countries failed to rise to the occasion. They were happy to be led by Biden. Only under the shield of the US were they ready to deliver weapons to Ukraine. And they always just did the minimum.
The fact that the US is leading the negotiation with Russia is not an accident; it is a logical consequence, a reaction to the non-existence of Europe as a serious, homogenous power willing to push back against Russia seriously.
My quick take on tomorrow's meetings in Washington.
The problem: After having failed to convince Putin, Trump has lost interest in Ukraine.
The risk is that he a) blames Zelenskyy for the failure, and b) entirely stops supporting Ukraine.
Europeans join Zelensky to prevent that he gets ambushed by Trump -- that Trump tells him what he has agreed with Putin and that he must pursue on that path.
Putin has skillfully laid that trap.
What Europeans want to achieve is a) that Trump doesn't look at Ukraine from Putin's perspective (after the meeting with him), and b) doesn't entirely turn against Ukraine, stopping all support, even weapons that Europeans can buy from the US.
Iran has built his bet to dominate the region as the new hegemon in a "post-American world" on its ally-proxies (Hamas, Hisbollah, Houthis, militias in Syria and Irak), on its missiles and its nuclear program.
After the attack by Iran's ally-proxy Hamas in October 2023, Israel has decided that it has to act to stop Iran's aggressive expansion -- and diminished all three pillars of Iranian power.