Thread by @EconomicManBlog

FWIW, here are my comments on @TroyTeslike delivery forecasts. (And I am nowhere near as close to this stuff as @fly4dat, @DeanSheikh1 and @EndTesla).

A thread.

cleantechnica.com/2020/09/03/tes…

1. With deliveries in July/Aug in China of about 22K, the 42K prediction for 3Q requires 20K in Sept. Hard to believe without some channel stuffing.
2. Prediction of 50K for China in 4Q seems high. The "honeymoon" effect points in the opposite direction. Maybe more new stores?

3. Europe in 3Q seems about right and certainly consistent with shipping schedule, but does assume that all the cars shipped get sold - which is not true at the moment (I believe). However, I see no reason why Europe should increase by 10K in 4Q. No new models. More comp.

4. Predicts S/X sales to rise from 12K in Q1 to 14.5K in Q3 and 20K in Q4. No reason why S/X shouldn't continue slow death.
5. Strong growth in both M3 and MY in USA from 3Q to 4Q (27K in total). I see no reason for this. M3 is very mature and this assumes no cannibalization.

In general, Q3 seems a bit high, but I don't have a really good feel for USA and I assume that @TroyTeslike has better info. Would still require some channel stuff, esp in China.

Q4 seems VERY high to me and a case of reverse engineering to meet Tesla's goals.

In general, I think that @TroyTeslike has not factured in the brave new world of competition, particularly in Europe but also in China.

AOT, if VW moves anywhere near the metal they have forecast, then this has to put a huge dent in Tesla.

PS. Please note that my comments assume no material price cuts. As @DeanSheikh1 always points out, with sufficient cuts, Tesla should be able to move any amount of metal.

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