1/ Now REALLY interesting results from Sweden. After current infection rate at ~0% published on Thu, yesterday seroprevalence in a Stockholm district in June (related to infection prevalence beg. of June) showed 18.7% AB. Allowing for addtl. 3 mo. buildup, probably ~25% now ...
2/ ... leading to countrywide prevalence od probably at least 15% (having in mind Stockholm is big and there are some other big cities). Karolinska research found out 2/3 infected did not develop measurable AB, meaning 40% country-wide infection has been reached ....
3/ ... and infection collapsed, as predicted by models using (naturally!) heterogenity. For sure reaching HIT does not mean the infections stops, just it slows down to a weak propagation, together with potential smaller local outbrakes.
4/ The reference is here:
folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-pr…
@BallouxFrancois @EthicalSkeptic @HaraldofW @gummibear737
folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-pr…
@BallouxFrancois @EthicalSkeptic @HaraldofW @gummibear737
