1) The straightest path for a Trump Electoral College win comes down to 7 states:
Winning the Core 3 of FL, NC, and AZ.
Winning 1 of MN, WI, MI, or PA.
If the election were today I think this "Core 3 +1" scenario would happen.
(If lost AZ, then two of MN, WI, MI, or PA works)
Winning the Core 3 of FL, NC, and AZ.
Winning 1 of MN, WI, MI, or PA.
If the election were today I think this "Core 3 +1" scenario would happen.
(If lost AZ, then two of MN, WI, MI, or PA works)
2) This is not to say that Trump could not win 2, 3, or 4 of MN, WI, MI, PA, or even New Hampshire. I'm just discussing the cleanest, easiest path to 270. (I realize a loss in AZ with wins in MN and WI means 269).
3) I like studying national polls too, but these seven states of FL, NC, AZ, MN, WI, MI, and PA are what I am most interested in. It would be fantastic if there was a battleground poll of these 7 states done by a quality pollster (not a Big Media pollster).
4) I have heard that a reliable pollster could be associated with something like a Big 6 battleground poll of IA, OH, MN, PA, WI, MI (or something like this). That would be great too (My apologies if I heard wrong).
If a decent pollster (which are few) gives a national Biden vs Trump poll where Biden is only ahead 4 or less, I think the "Core 3 +1" scenario is playing out for Trump. If Trump is within 4 points nationally he probably wins the Electoral College. If within 3 it looks very good.
