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Election information, analysis, and opinion. Republican.
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1 Nov
1) Highlights from Patrick Basham of Democracy Institute (DI) interview. Basham predicts a Trump win:

Early vote supports DI’s findings of a Trump win; youth and minority vote down

Trump could do better than DI's predictions

2) Lockdowns are a big issue; many who do not like Trump hate lockdowns more (like youth)

More 2016 Gary Johnson voters going for Trump than Biden

More undecideds breaking for Trump than Biden
3) “Shy Trump Voter” is often a "she."

Many women have bought guns. Gun owners often vote Republican

Trump has real shot in Nevada
Read 4 tweets
31 Oct
1) BREAKING: FINAL DEMOCRACY INSTITUTE POLL SHOWS TRUMP HEADED TO “ELECTORAL COLLEGE LANDSLIDE”

NATIONAL (TRUMP +1)

Trump 48
Biden 47

Trump Approval: 52%

(Likely Voters)
express.co.uk/news/world/135…
2) TRUMP +4 IN 6 BATTLEGROUND STATES:

“Significantly, the President has, according to the latest findings, maintained a four point lead of 49 percent to 45 percent in the key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
3) ELECTORAL COLLEGE: 326 TO 212

“It means he [Trump] is on course to easily win the electoral college by 326 to 212 votes against his Democrat rival.”

BLACK SUPPORT

“. . . almost four in ten black voters approve of his presidency and 21 percent are prepared to vote for him.”
Read 4 tweets
28 Oct
1) PENNSYLVANIA UPDATE

The final registration tally for PA shows Republicans closed the Dem-Rep voter registration gap by 229,381 since 2016. This includes a 13,960 advantage for Reps over Dems in the last week before 10/26. Both long and short-term party momentum for the GOP.
2) So Republicans are better positioned in 2020 than in 2016 when Trump won by 44,292. This fact could be more important than any poll.

Next, pollsters that were accurate with PA and/or the Electoral College in 2016 show positive movement for Trump in PA, either for a lead. . .
3) or slicing Biden’s lead:

Trafalgar now has Trump +0.8. Earlier he had Biden +2.3.

Baris (Big Data Poll) now has Biden +0.7. Earlier it was Biden +2.4. Baris says, “Pennsylvania is moving away from Joe Biden.”

Matt Towery (Insider Adv/AG) now has Trump +2.9 in PA.
Read 4 tweets
18 Oct
Thoughts on FLORIDA:

A convergence of data indicates Trump is positioned well to win FL:

REGISTRATION DATA: The GOP sliced the Dem-Rep Voter Reg Gap in FL by 193,196 since 2016. The Dem advantage was 327,438 in 2016, but now it’s 134,242. Trump won FL by 112,991 votes in 2016.
2) In 2012 the Dem registration advantage was 558,272 but Obama only won FL by 74,309.

Based on FL voter registration trends, JPMorgan Chase believes Trump could increase his 2016 margin. See:

foxbusiness.com/markets/voter-…

zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorg…
3) FL PRIMARY: Trump got 94% of the Republican vote in the FL Primary, showing unity and enthusiasm.

So: Increased Republican registration gains + unified Republican support bode well for Trump even before polls are considered.
Read 5 tweets
16 Oct
1) More from the Fox Business article about JPMorgan election analysis concerning Republican voter registration gains:

"Similar progress in battlegrounds Florida and North Carolina suggest Trump may take those states by a larger margin than in his first campaign as well."
2) "JPMorgan also believes a surge in the number of registered Republicans will tighten the race in New Mexico, but that the state will still go with Biden. On the flipside, a growing number of registered Democrats in Arizona will make the state close, but Trump should prevail."
3) "The firm noted Trump outperformed the polls in all of the key battleground states in 2016 and also suggested his recent Supreme Court nomination, gun ownership trends and a stronger backing from African-American voters are all playing into Trump’s hands."
Read 4 tweets
7 Oct
1) Nuggets from Joseph Cotto’s interview of Patrick Basham of Democracy Institute. A DI poll showed Trump winning nationally and in the Electoral College:

Basham addressed why Trump’s national lead went from +3 to +1 and why Trump’s Battleground State lead went from +7 to +4.
2) It was because Democracy Institute shifted from a 2-way to a 4-way race. He believes some are “parking their votes” with 3rd-party candidates. He senses some of these will move back to Trump or Biden, with more going to Trump. He also thinks more undecideds will go for Trump.
3) Believes in the “SHY TRUMP VOTER”:
“The shy Trump voter is not only real it is larger than last time.”

Is not just a rural voter under a haystack:
“The shy Trump voter is much more likely to be in fact . . . an African American in an urban setting. A Suburban white woman.”
Read 8 tweets
6 Oct
1) Some quick-hitting nuggets from “Inside the Numbers” today (my paraphrased words). Be sure to watch for full context:

Baris to be polling Pennsylvania very soon. When Big Data Poll polled the Rust Belt for The Epoch Times a couple weeks ago Trump had a tiny lead in PA.
2) Trump was within 2% in Michigan. Wisconsin was Biden’s strongest RB state then.

Will pay close attention to Bucks County. Hillary won by 2% in 2016. But two weeks ago Trump was up 2% (49 to 47).
3) Trump is leading overall if the electorate is fairly normal. But pollsters are counting on huge new voter turnout with majority breaking for Dems (very skeptical of this)

Baris polled FL a week ago. Trump has a small but solid lead in Florida (+1.5).
Read 4 tweets
3 Oct
1) BREAKING: DEMOCRACY INSTITUTE POLL SHOWS TRUMP LEADING NATIONALLY, IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES, AND ELECTORAL COLLEGE

NATIONAL (Trump +1)
Trump 46
Biden 45

6 BATTLEGROUNDS of FL, IA, MI, MN, PA, WI (Trump +4)
Trump 47
Biden 43

TRUMP’S APPROVAL: 50%

express.co.uk/news/world/134…
2) BATTLEGROUND STATES:
Florida
Trump 48
Biden 44

Minnesota
Trump 46
Biden 44

New Hampshire
Trump 45
Biden 43
3) ELECTORAL PROJECTION
Trump 320
Biden 218
Read 5 tweets
5 Sep
1) The straightest path for a Trump Electoral College win comes down to 7 states:

Winning the Core 3 of FL, NC, and AZ.
Winning 1 of MN, WI, MI, or PA.

If the election were today I think this "Core 3 +1" scenario would happen.

(If lost AZ, then two of MN, WI, MI, or PA works)
2) This is not to say that Trump could not win 2, 3, or 4 of MN, WI, MI, PA, or even New Hampshire. I'm just discussing the cleanest, easiest path to 270. (I realize a loss in AZ with wins in MN and WI means 269).
3) I like studying national polls too, but these seven states of FL, NC, AZ, MN, WI, MI, and PA are what I am most interested in. It would be fantastic if there was a battleground poll of these 7 states done by a quality pollster (not a Big Media pollster).
Read 5 tweets