“Significantly, the President has, according to the latest findings, maintained a four point lead of 49 percent to 45 percent in the key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
Oct 28, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1) PENNSYLVANIA UPDATE
The final registration tally for PA shows Republicans closed the Dem-Rep voter registration gap by 229,381 since 2016. This includes a 13,960 advantage for Reps over Dems in the last week before 10/26. Both long and short-term party momentum for the GOP.
2) So Republicans are better positioned in 2020 than in 2016 when Trump won by 44,292. This fact could be more important than any poll.
Next, pollsters that were accurate with PA and/or the Electoral College in 2016 show positive movement for Trump in PA, either for a lead. . .
Oct 18, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Thoughts on FLORIDA:
A convergence of data indicates Trump is positioned well to win FL:
REGISTRATION DATA: The GOP sliced the Dem-Rep Voter Reg Gap in FL by 193,196 since 2016. The Dem advantage was 327,438 in 2016, but now it’s 134,242. Trump won FL by 112,991 votes in 2016.
2) In 2012 the Dem registration advantage was 558,272 but Obama only won FL by 74,309.
Based on FL voter registration trends, JPMorgan Chase believes Trump could increase his 2016 margin. See:
1) More from the Fox Business article about JPMorgan election analysis concerning Republican voter registration gains:
"Similar progress in battlegrounds Florida and North Carolina suggest Trump may take those states by a larger margin than in his first campaign as well."
2) "JPMorgan also believes a surge in the number of registered Republicans will tighten the race in New Mexico, but that the state will still go with Biden. On the flipside, a growing number of registered Democrats in Arizona will make the state close, but Trump should prevail."
Oct 7, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1) Nuggets from Joseph Cotto’s interview of Patrick Basham of Democracy Institute. A DI poll showed Trump winning nationally and in the Electoral College:
Basham addressed why Trump’s national lead went from +3 to +1 and why Trump’s Battleground State lead went from +7 to +4.
2) It was because Democracy Institute shifted from a 2-way to a 4-way race. He believes some are “parking their votes” with 3rd-party candidates. He senses some of these will move back to Trump or Biden, with more going to Trump. He also thinks more undecideds will go for Trump.
Oct 6, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1) Some quick-hitting nuggets from “Inside the Numbers” today (my paraphrased words). Be sure to watch for full context:
Baris to be polling Pennsylvania very soon. When Big Data Poll polled the Rust Belt for The Epoch Times a couple weeks ago Trump had a tiny lead in PA.
2) Trump was within 2% in Michigan. Wisconsin was Biden’s strongest RB state then.
Will pay close attention to Bucks County. Hillary won by 2% in 2016. But two weeks ago Trump was up 2% (49 to 47).
Oct 3, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1) BREAKING: DEMOCRACY INSTITUTE POLL SHOWS TRUMP LEADING NATIONALLY, IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES, AND ELECTORAL COLLEGE
NATIONAL (Trump +1)
Trump 46
Biden 45
6 BATTLEGROUNDS of FL, IA, MI, MN, PA, WI (Trump +4)
Trump 47
Biden 43
1) The straightest path for a Trump Electoral College win comes down to 7 states:
Winning the Core 3 of FL, NC, and AZ.
Winning 1 of MN, WI, MI, or PA.
If the election were today I think this "Core 3 +1" scenario would happen.
(If lost AZ, then two of MN, WI, MI, or PA works)
2) This is not to say that Trump could not win 2, 3, or 4 of MN, WI, MI, PA, or even New Hampshire. I'm just discussing the cleanest, easiest path to 270. (I realize a loss in AZ with wins in MN and WI means 269).
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