“Significantly, the President has, according to the latest findings, maintained a four point lead of 49 percent to 45 percent in the key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
3) ELECTORAL COLLEGE: 326 TO 212
“It means he [Trump] is on course to easily win the electoral college by 326 to 212 votes against his Democrat rival.”
“. . . almost four in ten black voters approve of his presidency and 21 percent are prepared to vote for him.”
The final registration tally for PA shows Republicans closed the Dem-Rep voter registration gap by 229,381 since 2016. This includes a 13,960 advantage for Reps over Dems in the last week before 10/26. Both long and short-term party momentum for the GOP.
2) So Republicans are better positioned in 2020 than in 2016 when Trump won by 44,292. This fact could be more important than any poll.
Next, pollsters that were accurate with PA and/or the Electoral College in 2016 show positive movement for Trump in PA, either for a lead. . .
3) or slicing Biden’s lead:
Trafalgar now has Trump +0.8. Earlier he had Biden +2.3.
Baris (Big Data Poll) now has Biden +0.7. Earlier it was Biden +2.4. Baris says, “Pennsylvania is moving away from Joe Biden.”
Matt Towery (Insider Adv/AG) now has Trump +2.9 in PA.
1) More from the Fox Business article about JPMorgan election analysis concerning Republican voter registration gains:
"Similar progress in battlegrounds Florida and North Carolina suggest Trump may take those states by a larger margin than in his first campaign as well."
2) "JPMorgan also believes a surge in the number of registered Republicans will tighten the race in New Mexico, but that the state will still go with Biden. On the flipside, a growing number of registered Democrats in Arizona will make the state close, but Trump should prevail."
3) "The firm noted Trump outperformed the polls in all of the key battleground states in 2016 and also suggested his recent Supreme Court nomination, gun ownership trends and a stronger backing from African-American voters are all playing into Trump’s hands."
1) Nuggets from Joseph Cotto’s interview of Patrick Basham of Democracy Institute. A DI poll showed Trump winning nationally and in the Electoral College:
Basham addressed why Trump’s national lead went from +3 to +1 and why Trump’s Battleground State lead went from +7 to +4.
2) It was because Democracy Institute shifted from a 2-way to a 4-way race. He believes some are “parking their votes” with 3rd-party candidates. He senses some of these will move back to Trump or Biden, with more going to Trump. He also thinks more undecideds will go for Trump.
3) Believes in the “SHY TRUMP VOTER”:
“The shy Trump voter is not only real it is larger than last time.”
Is not just a rural voter under a haystack:
“The shy Trump voter is much more likely to be in fact . . . an African American in an urban setting. A Suburban white woman.”
1) The straightest path for a Trump Electoral College win comes down to 7 states:
Winning the Core 3 of FL, NC, and AZ.
Winning 1 of MN, WI, MI, or PA.
If the election were today I think this "Core 3 +1" scenario would happen.
(If lost AZ, then two of MN, WI, MI, or PA works)
2) This is not to say that Trump could not win 2, 3, or 4 of MN, WI, MI, PA, or even New Hampshire. I'm just discussing the cleanest, easiest path to 270. (I realize a loss in AZ with wins in MN and WI means 269).
3) I like studying national polls too, but these seven states of FL, NC, AZ, MN, WI, MI, and PA are what I am most interested in. It would be fantastic if there was a battleground poll of these 7 states done by a quality pollster (not a Big Media pollster).