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Elbridge Colby Profile picture
@ElbridgeColby
Sep 5, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Thoughtful/useful post from @RushDoshi. Maybe there's more agreement than I had previously understood. That might be good! In the interests of avoiding premature consensus, though, let me prod a bit. I think 1 and 2 are almost undeniable, even if one is a realist (as I am). 1/
Clearly ideology playing a role in US-PRC comp. If nothing else, check out recent DOD China report for discussion of how CCP thinks it is. Re 2, stakes clearly relevant for political structure, since victor/dominant power is near certain to influence (if not impose on) others. 2/
So then real question is how much should ideological considerations be prioritized/emphasized/reflected in US policy. This is ? I raised yesterday. If Demo Peace Theory is correct, eg, then US really shld be in business of transforming Chinese govt (prudently of course). 3/
& if spread of lib dem is really critical & linked to US core interests & ultimate success in competition, then US shld be VERY wary of collaborating w non-dems & "illiberal" dems. ? of degree/prudence, of course, but much heavier thumb on scale against in this case. 4/
I don't think debate shld shy away from these hard calls/clear logic. Policymakers can exercise prudence/tactical compromises, but the strategic logic should be as clear as possible. 5/

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More from @ElbridgeColby

Elbridge Colby Profile picture
Dec 12
.@realDonaldTrump common sense policy is getting results:

"European Nato members are holding talks about increasing the alliance’s target for defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP at its annual summit next June partly in anticipation of Donald Trump’s return as president." 1/
Here's this *insane* idea: Europe should spend at least as much to defend itself as Americans do! Crazy, right? No: Common sense!

Europeans know they need to do this. They just need to be pressed, as @realDonaldTrump has done, not let off the hook, as @POTUS has. 2/
@realDonaldTrump @POTUS "Trump’s demand that Europe should pay more for its own defence, and a realisation that current spending levels are not enough to support Ukraine and to deter Russia, has forced capitals to take on board the scale of the under-investment." 3/
Read 9 tweets
Elbridge Colby Profile picture
Dec 7
Now that voters have clearly discredited Liz Cheney and the associated brand of extreme hawkishness, Democrats might consider working with the new Republican Party that is *actually much more moderate and sensible* on foreign and security issues.

Observe: 1/
The new GOP led by @realDonaldTrump is focused on:

- Ending wars and avoiding new ones.

- Reducing the threat of nuclear war.

- Ensuring the military spends its money wisely and efficiently.

- Ensuring accountability in the intelligence community and the security services. 2/
@realDonaldTrump Ask a random Democrat from 1965, 1975, or 1985 if these were Democrats issues and you can be absolutely sure they’d claim they were.

What does this mean?

Latent beneath the superficial disagreements, there’s huge potential for bipartisan action on *common sense* policies. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Elbridge Colby Profile picture
Dec 5
This is the shockingly bad military situation @POTUS is leaving @realDonaldTrump. Profoundly irresponsible and dangerous.

America's defenses are deep in a hole and it won't be easy to get out of it. @realDonaldTrump has laid out the way.
"“God forbid we end up in a full-scale war with the PRC,” Jake Sullivan said. “But any war with a country like the PRC, a military like the PRC, is going to involve the exhaustion of munition stockpiles very rapidly.” 2/
Why didn't they do this instead of blowing through our stockpiles and barely touching our defense industrial base, instead focusing on green initiatives?

Sullivan warned that the U.S. needs to be “stockpiling both the vital munitions we know we’ll need..." 3/
Read 5 tweets
Elbridge Colby Profile picture
Nov 29
From @n_roettgen:

"Europe, however, squandered the time it should have spent investing more heavily into the relationship—including by building up its own defenses...European leaders cannot simply shift the blame for their predicament to Washington." 1/

foreignaffairs.com/europe/europe-…
"Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 should have been the final wake-up call, creating real momentum behind Europe’s effort to become a credible security actor in its own right. Instead, once again, it relied on the United States to take the lead in a European war." 2/
"European leaders must act decisively to...demonstrate to the US that Europe is prepared to hold up its side of a mutually beneficial partnership. Europe’s security will have to be European—or it won’t exist at all." 3/
Read 12 tweets
Elbridge Colby Profile picture
Nov 20
I wasn't referring so much to your influence on the @POTUS administration as to your track record in assessing the war. I happily invite comparisons to my own.

Below are a few. 1/
Image
Image
Read 16 tweets
Elbridge Colby Profile picture
Nov 18
It's essential to understand that @POTUS @VP administration is leaving a *terrible situation* for @realDonaldTrump @JDVance.

Senior NSC official: "They’re in a very difficult, extremely difficult situation with Russia, in egregious ways, continuing to escalate this conflict." 1/
"Unfortunately, that is part and parcel of what we have seen throughout this time, which is Russia’s willingness to continue to up the ante."

So the battlefield situation is "extremely difficult" and Russia is willing to escalate. Terrible. 2/

whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
The U.S. intelligence assessment according to @nytimes:

U.S. "officials have concluded that the war in Ukraine is no longer a stalemate as Russia makes steady gains, and the sense of pessimism in Kyiv and Washington is deepening." 3/

nytimes.com/2024/11/01/us/…
Read 4 tweets

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