Thread by @SethAbramson

(NEW HAMPSHIRE) New Hampshire has had over 50 new COVID-19 diagnoses in a single day only *twice* in the last 80 days.

On August 28, Trump came to New Hampshire for a massive rally. Today, eight days later—not yet shown on the chart below—New Hampshire has 56 new COVID-19 cases.

PS/ Those prior two "50+ days" were both on *weekdays*, when the number of confirmed new COVID-19 diagnoses tends to be higher. Today New Hampshire is breaking the 50-new-cases-in-a-day mark *on a weekend*. The odds this has no connection to a massive Trump rally are pretty slim.

PS2/ Why does it matter, beyond the obvious reason (public health)?

Because New Hampshire is one of the small number of *battleground states* in the 2020 election, and *also* fiercely proud of how well it's handled the pandemic.

Then Trump brought a *super-spreader event* here.

PS3/ 56 new cases in a day may not sound like a lot—until you remember New Hampshire is one of the smallest U.S. states; that our COVID-19 numbers have been infinitesimal; that Granite Staters didn't want Trump to come here; and that a super-spreader event is now wracking Maine.

PS4/ In Maine, a *single* indoor event with 65 people (15 over the limit) has already caused 3 deaths (2% of Maine's pandemic-long total) and 147 infections. Maine *also* is a battleground state (at least for one of its districted EVs). And now Trump has endangered New Hampshire.

PS5/ U.S. media needs to watch this story. Trump's Tulsa rally got a ton of attention—and rightly so. But New Hampshire is critical to the 2020 election and *wasn't* seeing any rising COVID-19 data before Trump showed up. If New Hampshire goes into the red, we *will* blame Trump.