Since it looks like I'm the messenger of doom, it's a good time to highlight all the good news about #coronavirus
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1. Only 0.5%-1% of those who catch it die. Imagine if it was 4-5%.
2. Kids barely die. Imagine if 15% of infected kids died, like with older ppl.
Thread
1. Only 0.5%-1% of those who catch it die. Imagine if it was 4-5%.
2. Kids barely die. Imagine if 15% of infected kids died, like with older ppl.
3. Kids don't seem to spread the virus much, even if they do get infected and shed the virus. If they were much more contagious, it would be much harder to stop.
4. Around half of ppl don't even know they've been infected (although they might have life-long consequences)
4. Around half of ppl don't even know they've been infected (although they might have life-long consequences)
5. There are very few infections through surfaces. Could you imagine what our lives would look like if everything you touched could infect you?
6. Planes don't seem to spread it much. Imagine if they were all superspreader events.
6. Planes don't seem to spread it much. Imagine if they were all superspreader events.
7. Most contagions are either within the family or in superspreader events. That narrows down the focus of the type of event we must focus on.
8. We have a very good grasp of what type of environment spreads the virus: indoors, with little air circulation, with lots of people talking, singing and interacting for a long period of time. That's very specific. It's easy to spot and address.
9. Heterogeneity means herd immunity might be reached before the ~60% threshold (although it's unclear)
10. There are dirt cheap ways to fight the virus. One of them is masking. If everybody used them properly and we avoided the worst types of events, we would stop the epidemic.
11. We are finding treatments, and some are dirt cheap, such as dexamethasone and proning. It looks like Vitamin D can help prevent it. Cost and risk of taking it: Nearly zero
12. We're moving towards vaccines at warp speed, unlike anything humankind has ever done. Hopefully, some will pass Phase 3 in the coming months, and in 2021 we will have one widely available.
13. The world has been able to get together to solve a pandemic. Never before have so many people from around the world collaborated to fight such a common threat so fast. We are closer to each other.
14. This had already happened one century ago. We had plenty of records to learn from (even if we didn't learn enough)
15. Skies cleaned up. Emissions dropped. We showed slowing down global warming is possible.
15. Skies cleaned up. Emissions dropped. We showed slowing down global warming is possible.
16. Governments and their ineptitude were exposed.
17. The very first countries to be exposed were also the best at managing it, showing a path to the rest of countries. Especially true of South Korea and Taiwan, but also Vietnam, Hong Kong, and others
17. The very first countries to be exposed were also the best at managing it, showing a path to the rest of countries. Especially true of South Korea and Taiwan, but also Vietnam, Hong Kong, and others
18. Some Western countries learned really fast. Eg, New Zealand, Iceland and Germany have done a great job.
19. We've accelerated the move to online economies by decades. This will reduce global inequality (although it might increase it in some countries)
19. We've accelerated the move to online economies by decades. This will reduce global inequality (although it might increase it in some countries)
20. New testing methods such as quick saliva tests could mean we can test massively and quickly identify who is contagious and only isolate those.
21. The Bradykinin hypothesis *sounds* reasonable to explain the illness. I have not seen yet a peer review that proves it wrong. If it's true, we'd have a path for good treatments quickly
What else?
What else?
I mean ventilation, not air circulation. Circulating air is a bad idea. Ventilating is a great one.
