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Sep 6, 2020 12 tweets 4 min read Read on X
🎯TEAMS TO TARGET FOR CAPTAINCY🎯

Most captaincy options play for the top teams. In 19/20 the teams listed below performed the worst vs the top 6:

🥇Aston Villa
🥈Burnley
🥉Newcastle

Surprisingly not:
❌NOR
❌BOU
❌WAT

Let's take a closer look at these teams in this[THREAD]
✅I took a look at all the games played vs the top 6 for all teams in the 19/20 PL season

🔢Everyone got 12 games vs the Top 6, while the top 6 themselves only got 10 games

⏫For easier comparison I scaled up the top 6 teams performance linearly from 10 to 12 games.
Here are the teams who gained the least points vs the top 6 sides.

👍Aston Villa clearly the worst team
🤔5th placed Leicester with a surprise appearance Image
Villa also the team that clearly conceded the most goals.

😮10th placed Clean Sheet Kings Burnley are the 2nd worst Image
2⃣➕
With captaincy we want to target teams which concede a lot of goals in single games often

This figure shows how often the teams conceded more than 2 goals in a single match vs the top 6

👍Villa noticeably conceded 2+ goals inn ALL 12 games Image
3⃣➕
Now lets look at the no. of games where more than 3 goals where conceded out of the 12 games vs the top 6.

❌CRY who conceded more than 2 goals in 83% of games are noticeably not on this list. They concede a lot of goals but rearly more than 2 at the time Image
4⃣➕
When looking at games with more than 4 goals conceded Burnley rises to the top🧐 Image
Traditionally one would target for captaincy those with most goals conceded overall: NOR, AVL, BOU, WAT, WHU, SOU

Only Aston Villa of these stand out among the worst performers vs the top 6❗️

Should we pay more attention to which teams the goals conceded comes against?🤔
The teams listed below saw the highest % of their goals conceded (GC) in games vs the top 6

These teams conceded more vs the Top 6 compared to their overall GC👎

The flip side of that is that they conceded less than their overall GC against the rest 👍 Image
SUMMARY

🥇AVL is by far the best target for captaincy
🎯BUR, NEW and CRY also great teams to target
❌Relegated teams BOU, WAT and NOR did OK

✍️Teams with high GC overall are not necessarily terrible vs the top teams Image
All stats from FBref.com

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More from @yonkersfpl

Sep 24, 2020
🗣️“Pick Salah at home and Mane away”

This statement seems to have become common consensus around large parts of FPL Twitter

Looking into the stats I found that there is no truth to this statement at all.

I wrote a short [THREAD] to explain
This theory seemingly originates from looking at goals scored at Anfield last PL season (19/20)

▪️ Salah 15 G
▪️ Mane 11 G

By looking at these stats Salah seems like the superior player at home
Similarly, Mane looks like the best pick away from home
last PL season (19/20)

▪️ Salah 4 G
▪️ Mane 7 G

And by that a theory is born

🗣️“Pick Salah at home and Mane away”
Read 20 tweets
Sep 22, 2020
I have read a lot of this lately:

🤕Aguero's injury is GREAT for Sterling

🔥He is ALOT better playing with Jesus

I took a closer look into the stats and found out these statements are false. Let me explain why in this short [THREAD]
How does the absence of Aguero affect Sterling?

PL season 19/20:
Goal Involvements (GI) per 90 in games Sterling and Aguero started vs games where only Sterling started.

▪️ w/ Aguero: 0.39 GI
▪️ wo/Aguero: 0.95 GI

Sterling’s output increased with 143% without Aguero!
So, it seems to be true:

Sterling is playing A LOT better when Aguero is out of the team

If this statement is true, then we should see a similar occurrence in the 18/19 season as well.

Let us take a look and try and validate our statement.
Read 12 tweets
Sep 20, 2020
Seen alot of talk about Sterlings performance with/without Aguero

Games where both started (1st)
Games where only Sterling started (2nd)

Total
🕑 1158 - 1417
⚽️ 5 – 14
🅰️ 0 – 1
GI 5 - 15

Per 90
⚽️ 0.39 – 0.89
🅰️ 0.00 – 0.06
GI 0.39 – 0.95

(PL games 19/20)
Expected stats:

Total
xG 4.5 – 12.0
xA 4.1 – 3.1
xGI 8.6 – 15.1

Per 90
xG 0.35 – 0.76
xA 0.32 – 0.20
xGI 0.67 – 0.96
Sterlings performance with/without Jesus

Games where both started (1st)
Games where only Sterling started (2nd)

Total
🕑 1327 - 1248
⚽️ 15 - 4
🅰️ 1 - 0
GI 16 - 4

Per 90
⚽️ 1.17 - 0.31
🅰️ 0.08 - 0.00
GI 1.24 - 0.31

(PL games 19/20)
Read 4 tweets
Sep 8, 2020
🤔Is this the PERFECT year for an early WC?

I’ve been dead set on saving mine because of the Pandemic.
But man it's hard to setup a good team for the long term.

I wrote a list of pros & cons around an early WC and found:

✅10 reasons to USE
❌1 reason to SAVE

[THREAD]
REASONS TO SAVE YOUR WILDCARD

1⃣ COVID-19

❗️Matches could get postponed leading to unexpected double GW’s (Opportunity)

❗️You might suddenly find yourself with alot of red flagged Covid infected players (Safety net)

Having a WC in your backpocket could potentially be HUGE
REASONS TO USE AN EARLY WC

1⃣ GW1 BLANK

🤒We've all been having headaches trying to make up a good plan to get in MCI and MUN players.

😬Booking transfers seems like a risky idea. Surely new problems/opportunities will arise that we need our precious transfers for?
Read 16 tweets
Aug 26, 2020
🗨️“Salah is a different level when he starts without Mane” was claimed by @ahopcroft13 today.

At first I thought that this phenomenon was surely caused by the bad level of the opposition in the games without Mane. So I took a deep-dive into the stats 🧐 [Thread]
First lets look at Salah’s returns starting alongside Mane (1st) vs Salah starting without Mane (2nd)

Starts – 27 v 6
Goals – 12 v 7
Assist – 6 v 4
G+A/start – 0.67 v 1.83

Salah noted almost 3 times higher output without Mane! 😮
Salah started 6 matches without Mane in 19\20 - scoring 7 out of his 19 total goals! It is noticeable however, how easy the opposition were in these games. All the teams being among the 9 worst defensive teams in the league (Referred to as “The Bramble” teams by @lateriser12) Image
Read 13 tweets
Aug 21, 2020
Inspired by @FFScout_Joe’s talk of price points I’ve looked at which price points are the most stacked with players I *might* want soon. At the moment I’m looking at picking minimum one player from each of the 6 price points listed in this [Thread]
Midfielder 11.5 to 12.0m:
- Aubamayang
- Salah
- Mane
- KDB
- Sterling
Midfielder 6.5 to 7.5m:
- Greenwood
- Grealish
- Zaha
- Maddison \ H.Barnes \ Tielemans
- Foden
- Traore \ Jota
- Bowen
Read 8 tweets

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