A different look at the election based not on polling, but high quality Pew and Census surveys. The conclusion: “in a fair election, Biden would beat the president by at least 10 million votes today and carry four of the five swing states Trump won in 2016 … .”
Donald Trump’s heated racial appeals betray his growing political problem with white voters. Trump is running far behind Joe Biden in national polls because, according to data from the Pew Research Center, …
“his 20 percentage-point advantage with white voters in 2016 (57% to 37%) dwindled to nine points by mid-August of this year (54% to 45%). Trump’s deficit with Hispanic voters is actually less than in 2016, down from 38 to 28 percentage-points (35% to 63%).
“When it comes to Black and Asian-American voters he’s held steady since 2016. He faces an 80 percentage-point gap in support from Black voters (8% to 88%), as he did last time, and his 38-point deficit with Asian voters (27% to 65%) is also unchanged.
“Crunch the numbers and in a fair election, Biden would beat the president by at least 10 million votes today and carry four of the five swing states Trump won in 2016—Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Florida Trump would hold on to Wisconsin under this scenario.
“This assessment does not rest on typical polls of 800 or 1,200 people. People’s current preferences for Trump versus Biden by race and ethnicity and the 2016 vote by race and ethnicity are drawn from the Pew Research Center’s gold-standard survey of 11,000 registered voters.
“The projected vote this year by race and ethnicity also rests on voter registration and turnout data from the 3.5 million households who take part in the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, its annual comprehensive measure of the population.
“Combining data of this breadth is a powerful lens on the electorate. And the electorate is not happy.”
Here’s a thread with more data and analysis on the theme of the shrinking Republican base, from @Teri_Kanefield.
