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No doubt that the covid-19 situation in France is now more worrying than in the UK. But British complacency seems to me misguided. In early August France also thought it had the virus under control post-lock-down.

(chart via @jburnmurdoch) 1/5
New cases in UK on Sept 6 = 2,988
France was at this level (2,846) on August 14th. Since then numbers in France have surged.
Daily new cases on Fridays:

Aug 21: 4,586
Aug 28: 7,379
Sep 4: 8,975

2/5
Both countries are testing widely now. Both are finding most new cases among the young, so hospitalisations remain low. But French admissions are rising. French health minister @olivierveran expects rise in “serious cases” within 14 days 3/5
Is UK really managing exit from lock-down better than France, as UK health minister Matt Hancock claims, because of UK “test-and-trace system working so effectively” and “the quarantine and social distancing policies.” 4/5
Or is UK just 3 weeks behind a similar French covid19 trend? I’m no epidemiologist but it seems improbable that the UK will avoid an upward surge similar to that in France, despite government claims to the contrary 5/5

Sources: dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/vue-d-ensemble…
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases
In response to requests for other French data:

Daily covid19 hospital admissions
Sep 4: 28
Sep 3: 11
Sep 2: 28
Sep 1: 22
Aug 31: 47
(Peak = 2,365/day on March 26)

Daily hospital covid19 deaths
Sep 3: 20
Sep 2: 25
Sep 1: 19
Aug 31: 29
(Peak = 605/day on April 6)
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Sophie Pedder
@PedderSophie
Short thread on France and covid-19. It increasingly looks as if France will not be following as awful a trajectory as Italy and Spain. This is showing up in a series of tentatively encouraging data points over the past 4-6 days 1/6
The increase in new hospital admissions for covid-19 in France has been slowing since April 1. This hints that nearly 3 weeks of confinement is starting to work:
Mar 31: +1749
April 1: +1882
April 2: +1607
April 3: +1186
April 4: +711 2/6
The rise in no. in intensive care has slowed for 5 consecutive days. The situation remains critical, but France’s hospitals are just about coping:
Mar 29: +359
Mar 30: +475
Mar 31: +458
April 1: +452
April 2: +382
April 3: +280
April 4: +176 3/6
Read 7 tweets
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Sophie Pedder
@PedderSophie
I am great fan of the @FT but this headline is very misleading. The French “partial unemployment” scheme is designed precisely to avoid making employees redundant or putting them “on benefit” Image
It is meaningless to compare the 4m French figure with America’s 6.6m jobless claims. In France, it is employers who apply to the government for “partial unemployment” to cover their works, not the employees
Employees continue to receive their pay, and payslips, from employers during the period of “partial unemployment”. They are not laid off. It is employers who do the paperwork with government to secure state support for those payments
Read 7 tweets
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Sophie Pedder
@PedderSophie
A lot of bewilderment this evening about France’s position on Brexit extension. What is Macron’s endgame? Viewed from Paris, the question is surprising. French view is that their position hasn’t changed 1/6
France has consistently resisted long extensions. Macron is not afraid of appearing isolated, as he was also in April. He thinks, rightly or wrongly, that keeping up the pressure will help focus MPs’ minds 2/6
Given populist pressures at home and in EU, and memories of backlash after 2005 French referendum, FR does NOT want to be seen to be blocking or obstructing implementation of will of the people 3/6
Read 6 tweets

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