A lot of bewilderment this evening about France’s position on Brexit extension. What is Macron’s endgame? Viewed from Paris, the question is surprising. French view is that their position hasn’t changed 1/6
France has consistently resisted long extensions. Macron is not afraid of appearing isolated, as he was also in April. He thinks, rightly or wrongly, that keeping up the pressure will help focus MPs’ minds 2/6
Given populist pressures at home and in EU, and memories of backlash after 2005 French referendum, FR does NOT want to be seen to be blocking or obstructing implementation of will of the people 3/6
Nor does France want to be seen making decisions for the UK. Insists the first move has to come from London: either pass bill (and get short technical extension), or decide on election (and get longer one) 4/6
French are fed up with the time and energy Brexit talks consume, and want to move on. Like it or not, they see Johnson as a PM who has changed the equation about possibility of getting a deal through 5/6
Having said all that, I still don’t think that Macron would wield a veto over extension. He would seek to convince others, and find a compromise if need be, but would not play de Gaulle 6/6
