Lesson on Case Fatality Rates for Spain and France: It's going to go up.
2 months ago, I predicted that the US Case Fatality Rate was going to stop going down, and was going to grow instead.
Back then, it had been going down for months (Apr-14 to Jul-03)
[1/
2 months ago, I predicted that the US Case Fatality Rate was going to stop going down, and was going to grow instead.
Back then, it had been going down for months (Apr-14 to Jul-03)
[1/
https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1282951765478916096
It started going slightly up at the beginning of July.
Some ppl thought it was a fluke, but this analysis led me to believe it was the beginning of a trend and CFR was just about to go up consistently.
Some ppl thought it was a fluke, but this analysis led me to believe it was the beginning of a trend and CFR was just about to go up consistently.
https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1282951802678206464?s=20
Sure enough, it did. From 1% to ~2.5% today. 
The same thing is likely happening in Spain and France now. They're at an unnatural CFR of 0.9% (Spain) and 0.3% (!!!) (France). We can already see the Spanish one going up. Not a fluke.
It's just the 2nd wave of cases that is due to convert into deaths, very unfortunately.
It's just the 2nd wave of cases that is due to convert into deaths, very unfortunately.
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