First Minister @NicolaSturgeon: "Afternoon, everyone. I'm going to run through the usual daily statistics before commenting in a bit more detail on the trend in these statistics we've been observing over the past few days."
NS: "Firstly, the daily picture. An additional 146 positive cases were confirmed yesterday. That represents 2.4% of people who were newly tested yesterday, and the total number of cases now is 21,543."
NS: "The usual health board breakdown will be available later but I'll give you our provisional information, which is that 78 of today's cases are in Greater Glasgow & Clyde, 19 in Lanarkshire, 13 in Lothian, 9 in Ayrshire & Arran."
NS: "The remaining cases are spread across 6 different health boards. I can also report that 256 patients are in hospital, which is 12 more than yesterday, and 5 people are in intensive care, which is 1 more than yesterday."
NS: "In the past 24 hours, no deaths were registered of patients who first tested positive over the previous 28 days, and the number of deaths under that measurement therefore remains 2,496."
NS: "And, of course, that figure reminds us of the impact the virus has had, and again I want to send condolences to everyone who is grieving a loved one."
NS: "As I indicated a moment ago, I want to spend a little bit of time today reflecting on the increase in cases we've seen in recent days, and especially the figures we saw over the weekend."
NS: "Yesterday we had more than 200 new cases reported in Scotland, 208. 92 of these were in Greater Glasgow & Clyde. That continues a rise in cases that has been apparent now for some weeks."
NS: "If I can take you back 6 weeks to a statement I gave in Parliament about lockdown restrictions. At that point, 6 weeks ago, we were recording an average of 14 new cases every day."
NS: "Just under 3 weeks ago, that was 52 cases on average we were reporting every day."
NS: "But if you look back over the past 7 days, the average number of cases being reported on a daily basis is 152."
NS: "Yesterday, the percentage of positive tests among people being tested for the first time was 2.3%, and as I've noted, today it's 2.4%."
NS: "Two weeks ago that figure was regularly below 1%. So we have a very definite trend at the moment. In some ways, it shouldn't surprise us. In recent weeks, we have opened up most of our economy."
NS: "We had to get some normality back to our economy because we know lockdown does other harm to people. But as we have released ourselves from lockdown, we have also released the virus from lockdown."
NS: "People are meeting and interacting with each other more often, and this kind of increase we are experiencing now in Scotland is not unique to us."
NS: "We are seeing similar increase in countries across the UK, but also across Europe and many other parts of the world."
NS: "While it might not be surprising - this is, after all, an infectious virus - we must take this trend seriously and, if we want to avoid having to close parts of our economy down again, we must step up our other ways of keeping Covid under control."
NS: "This really is a key moment, and I want therefore to be pretty frank with you in my assessment today. Let me be clear, that cuts both ways."
NS: "I'll be frank first of all about some of the important differences between the situation we're in now and the situation we faced earlier in the year."
NS: "Because it is important to give some context, and to take care not to overstate the situation. But I'll also be frank about the reasons why we can't afford to slip into a sense of complacency..."
NS: "..and also about the things we need to do to try to keep the situation under control, and to try and bear down on this virus which has always been and should always be our objective."
NS: "First, the context. The last time we had over 200 cases in a single day like we did yesterday was on 8th May, and on that day we had 225 cases."
NS: "But notwithstanding that headline similarity, there are actually important differences between the situation now and earlier in the year."
NS: "For example, the 225 reported on in May represented around 7% of people tested. Yesterday's 208 cases was 2.3% of people tested."
NS: "So the point I'm making is earlier in the year, the daily case numbers were probably more of an underestimate of true prevalence than our daily numbers are now. Because we are now testing more people than we were back then."
NS: "Also on 8th May, there were 75 people in intensive care with Covid, and more than 1,000 people in hospital. That compares with 5 in ICU today and 256 in hospital."
NS: "As you might recall me saying last week, we think some of the people counted in our hospital figures now may already have recovered, so we're looking closely at this."
NS: "Generally, we're not so far seeing the recent increase in cases reflected in a significant increase in new admissions to hospitals or intensive care, and that has been a feature of increases in cases in other parts of the world as well."
NS: "While the scientists don't fully understand why that is the case, it may partly reflect the fact that right now, younger people make up a higher percentage of positive cases, and although they still can get seriously ill, they are less likely to do so."
NS: "I think all of this provides important context for you to listen to me and hopefully take seriously what I say, it's important that I'm not overstating things."
NS: "That I don't sound as if I am scaremongering to you. That context is important to give."
NS: "But, and there's always a but, my main message today is, that context cannot and must not be a source of complacency."
NS: "The view that I hear more often these days, that because of these differences we no longer need to worry, and continued restrictions are an overreaction, is, in my view, dangerous."
NS: "I want to give three reasons for that, three reasons why we really must take this very seriously."
NS: "Firstly, we shouldn't forget that, even for younger people, this can be a really nasty disease."
NS: "Many people - they're often referred to as Covid long-haulers - including some young people, are suffering long-term health effects, even if they never go into hospital or intensive care."
NS: "Second - and this is perhaps the most important point - if transmission takes hold again then even if it starts in the younger, healthier part of the population, which it appears to be doing because younger people are perhaps interacting more..."
NS: "..it won't necessarily stay in that part of the population. It will eventually seep into older and more vulnerable groups."
NS: "To be blunt, some younger people will go on to infect their older friends or relatives. It's at that point we could see again more deaths and serious illnesses happen."
NS: "Without overstating it, there already appears to be some evidence of this in France, for example, which has seen cases rising now over a longer period that we have."
NS: "My third and final reason is, I suppose, a closer to home illustration of that point."
NS: "Although hospital admissions are very low just now compared to earlier in the year, it is not true to say they haven't risen at all."
NS: "In the week ending 31st August, which is the most recent data I can give you at the moment, there were 22 hospital admissions across Scotland for Covid."
NS: "Now, that's a low figure, but in each of the previous two weeks that figure was 14 per week. So it's gone from 14 to 22, and in the last three weeks, half of all hospital admissions in Scotland have been in the Greater Glasgow & Clyde health board area..."
NS: "..where of course we have seen the biggest increase in cases. So we'd be wrong to say there isn't a warning there for us already. It might be a faint warning in terms of hospital admissions, but it is there and we should listen to it."
NS: "Because it tells us that we really must continue to act with resolve."
NS: "Later this week, we will have the latest three-week review of the national restrictions that continue to be in place and I'll confirm the outcome of that in Parliament on Thursday."
NS: "But it's worth remembering that we can only, under our own routemap, move from Phase 3 of our routemap where we are now to Phase 4 if, and I quote, the virus is no longer considered a significant threat to public health."
NS: "From all the latest statistics, it's clear that will not be the case. It may be, while no decisions have finally been taken yet, it may be that we have to put the breaks on some further changes too."
NS: "Later today we'll also review the restrictions that have been put in place for Greater Glasgow & Clyde. We'll of course be considering data not just from 3 local authority areas that currently have restrictions on meeting at home..."
NS: "..but for the other local authority areas in that health board region. The current situation in Greater Glasgow & Clyde is a reminder that if we see a resurgence in cases, restrictions may have to be imposed rather than being relaxed."
NS: "But we want to avoid that if at all possible, which brings me to what we all need to do to give ourselves the best chance of avoiding having to close down parts of our economy and society all over again."
NS: "Now that we are out of a strict lockdown, we basically have two key lines of defence against Covid. One is our Test & Protect system. I'm pleased to say that is working well so far."
NS: "It is tracing more than 90% of cases and their close contacts. We owe a real debt of gratitude to all of those who are working hard to make that work."
NS: "Later this week we will enhance Test & Protect further with the launch of our Protect Scotland app."
NS: "I'll say more about the app then, but I will encourage all of you to download it once it is launched. Let me be clear, it doesn't track your location, your data's not passed on, your data remains anonymous, private and confidential."
NS: "But if you test positive - if you download and use the app - it will help identify people you've been in close contact with but who are not known to you, for example, someone you might have sat close to on a bus or train."
NS: "So it will help us further contain the spread. Downloading it and using it will be a small but really, really important individual step we can all take for our collective wellbeing."
NS: "Protect Scotland will be an important addition to our Test & Protect system that is working well, but as I keep saying, important though it is, Test & Protect is our second line of defence."
NS: "The first line of defence is us. The decisions we make and how we behave - these matter more than anything else."
NS: "The most important thing any of us can do right now, no matter who we are, is make sure we know what the advice and rules is asking of us and make sure we are complying."
NS: "That means sticking to the limits when we meet up with people indoors - no more than 8 people from a maximum of 3 households, whether that's your own home, somebody else's home, or in a pub or restaurant."
NS: "Keep physically distant from people from households other than your own. Follow the FACTS rules at all times."
NS: "F - face coverings in enclosed spaces.
A - avoid crowded places.
C - clean your hands and hard surfaces.
T - two-metre distancing is the overall rule.
S - self-isolate and book a test if you have symptoms."
A - avoid crowded places.
C - clean your hands and hard surfaces.
T - two-metre distancing is the overall rule.
S - self-isolate and book a test if you have symptoms."
NS: "I know this is all really difficult but it remains absolutely necessary. It is inconvenient, it is tedious, and I know it's really hard to remember, but let me say that again - it is really necessary."
NS: "The virus is spreading again. The figures that I reported to you today demonstrate that. For the reasons I've tried to set out today, it's not an option simply to do nothing about that."
NS: "If we were to do nothing, even though I accept this doesn't seem to be what is happening yet, we'd risk, in the weeks ahead, going back to a mounting toll of illness and death."
NS: "So my plea to everybody is, let's not take that risk. We have come too far, all of us caring and taking steps and making sacrifices for each other."
NS: "We've come this far. It was always going to be difficult when we came out of lockdown and headed into winter, but we still have the power, each and every one of us, to stem this tide."
NS: "However difficult it feels, that sacrifice that we're asking each and every one of us to make is less difficult than another lockdown."
NS: "So please, let's all take the conscious effort, make the conscious effort to tighten up on our adherence to all of these rules, and know that in doing that we will be helping to protect ourselves..."
NS: "..protect our families, and our wider communities, and protect the NHS from a surge of hospital and ICU admissions, and ultimately, going back to where we were at the start."
NS: "All of this means we will help to save lives, and we should not lose sight of that very important objective."
NS: "So my thanks for listening. I wanted to take a bit of time today just to give some context and analysis of the situation we're in right now."
