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Ulrich Speck Profile picture
@ulrichspeck
Sep 8, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Both Russia and Belarus have now opposition leaders in exile.
The fight of the ruling classes against dissent and democracy has reached a new stage.
In Belarus the reason is obvious, but it seems as if the Kremlin also sees the protest as a glimpse into a potential future and is hardening its attitude towards dissent.
As a consequence, the empire is likely to become more fragile.

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More from @ulrichspeck

Ulrich Speck Profile picture
Jun 29
The weaker Iran is, the better the chances for a new, peaceful Middle East shaped by US allies and partners: Israel, Saudi-Arabia and Turkey.
Iran has built his bet to dominate the region as the new hegemon in a "post-American world" on its ally-proxies (Hamas, Hisbollah, Houthis, militias in Syria and Irak), on its missiles and its nuclear program.
After the attack by Iran's ally-proxy Hamas in October 2023, Israel has decided that it has to act to stop Iran's aggressive expansion -- and diminished all three pillars of Iranian power.
Read 11 tweets
Ulrich Speck Profile picture
Mar 8
Deutschland ist bereit für eine entschlossene Verteidigungspolitik. Neue Umfrage:
Russland ist eine akute Bedrohung: Image
Amerika wird uns nicht schützen: Image
Read 6 tweets
Ulrich Speck Profile picture
Feb 23
Deutschland kann recht leicht zurück auf den Erfolgskurs gebracht werden. Das Potenzial des Landes ist immens. Es müssen nur ein paar Dinge getan werden:
1) Die Migrationsfrage muss der radikalen Rechten entwunden werden, um diese wieder auf Normalmaß zu stutzen. Wichtig ist, dass sich die AfD nicht als Milieu großflächig etabliert, damit vernünftiges Regieren möglich bleibt.
2) Deutschland muss erheblich mehr in Verteidigung investieren. Hauptaufgabe ist die Verteidigung unserer Partner von Baltikum bis Rumänien. Deutschland muss dafür seine industriellen Kapazitäten endlich anwerfen. Nur dann gibt es Frieden und Stabilität in Europa.
Read 8 tweets
Ulrich Speck Profile picture
Feb 21
Trump's ways to end /prevent war: give Russia and China what they want?

The current order is post-imperial, based on the principle of safe borders also for smaller and weaker countries.

But Russia and China want to change that: subjugate smaller countries in their neighborhood.
There is a "liberal international order"-case against Russian, Chinese and Iranian neo-imperialism; but also an "America first"-case, as all three are eager to diminish American power and influence, and want to put themselves (and their type of order) globally on top.
To give up support for "frontline states" -- countries in the vicinity of these autocratic power supported in their sovereignty by the US -- would mean to bring namely Russia and China in a better position, which would increase their appetite and belligerence.
Read 12 tweets
Ulrich Speck Profile picture
Dec 26, 2024
Europeans have opportunities to strengthen their position vis-à-vis Russia but they fail to grasp them: Armenia, Georgia, Syria, also Libya.

Without the will to win battles over influence against Russia, Europeans will be on the loosing side in the ne geopolitical world.
Those opportunities may not come back. Capitals of big European countries -- Berlin, Paris, London, Rome, others -- need to get together and devise a geopolitical strategy that they will role out individually, but also inside NATO and the EU.
So far what we see is no sense of urgency, a lack of strategic capacity to analyze and draw conclusions, a failure to invest in capabilities and a lack of will to fight for the "European way of life".
Read 9 tweets
Ulrich Speck Profile picture
Dec 16, 2024
Die Prämisse der Russlandpolitik von Scholz ist: der Krieg ist ein Ausrutscher, eine Abweichung vom Normalzustand, und die Aufgabe des Kanzlers besteht darin, Russland zu helfen, diesen Fehler einzusehen und zu korrigieren, um zum Normalzustand der Zusammenarbeit zurückzukehren.
Die Realität, die die große Mehrheit der Russlandkenner, die anderen Mitte-Parteien (Grüne, FDP, Union) ebenso erkannt haben wie die europäischen Partner Deutschlands, ist aber eine andere: Russlands Aggression gegen Europa ist der neue Normalzustand.
Aus der Diagnose folgt die Strategie. Scholz hat immer die Rückkehr zum vermeintlichen Normalzustand im Blick und arbeitet darauf hin, dass Russland wieder Partner wird.
Read 10 tweets

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