Tom Swann Profile picture
Sep 8, 2020 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Energy Department admits the 'Tech Roadmap' is full of literal thought bubbles based on 'expert judgement' and not based on analysis.

Favourable treatment of gas vs renewables ensured by assumptions that ignore best modelling.
reneweconomy.com.au/federal-govern…
'expert judgement' with no analysis is a fancy way of saying they made it up.

No wonder they ignored my requests for the underlying assumptions and then fought against my FOI
The Tech Roadmap is essentially a series of these graphs. No numbers, no explanation of how they came up with it. That's a terrible basis for climate policy. Image
The size of the bubble is supposed to show the emissions reductions each technology could deliver. The Department basically made this up, and then didn't tell anyone. And then mislead the public consultation about it.
The cost of abatement figures they did some work on, but didn't present it, and on the key question of renewables with/without gas the underlying assumptions completely ignored best available energy evidence (eg AEMO ISP) that lowest cost is more renewables and less gas.
Maybe there is good work in there. Who knows. It is completely undermined by this sort of shenanigans.
Remember this Tech Roadmap is the government's only real climate agenda. Every other plan and promise has been delayed or is sitting on the Minister's desk. This thing is it.

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More from @Tom_Swann

Feb 18, 2023
Late night trawling of govt energy and emissions docs. A lazy unplanned thread👇
This was the newish Labor's govt's emissions projections in Dec 2022. "Additional measures" the estimated impact of govt policy.

Small size of the cut speaks for itself, but note also it doesn't get to the target.

(projections are dodgy. just saying)
We're now all [ish] finally paying attention to the "safeguard mechanism".

The last emissions projections assumed it would reduce emissions from covered facilities "pro rata" ie 43%.

The govt has now declared it will do only 30% under SGM facilities.
Read 10 tweets
Nov 26, 2021
A year and a half after the govt put gas executives in charge of the COVID Commission, and weeks after COP26, we have today a new national plan to subsidise gas pipelines across Australia.

Here's the report, lowlights threaded

energy.gov.au/publications/2…
From the exec summary "Gas supplies are likely to fall short of domestic ///and export/// demand by the end of the decade if further action to unlock supply and deliver key infrastructure is not taken by industry"

Ie - subsidies to prop up bad investments in export terminals
Notorious non tax paying Santos has made clear that its interest in the Beetaloo is focused on exports.

Why on earth would we subsidise that?
Read 14 tweets
Nov 24, 2021
higher petrol prices must have people thinking more about EVs. does anyone know, or have a simple modelling tool, for how much petrol prices impact the payback period for EVs?
obviously depends on lots of things - better fuel economy of alternative means less impact, amount of kms driven means more impact, etc.
and whether you are using real time pricing or own supply solar to charge
Read 4 tweets
Aug 24, 2021
Report just dropped, into the Beetaloo gas grants scheme and the #RortFiredRecovery. Rolling thread as I work through it parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/downl…
This report is a majority report, backed by the Labor and Greens Senators.

Straight off the bat:
If gas companies getting subsidies for exploration go on to make a lot of money, they should have to pay the subsidies back.
Read 37 tweets
Aug 24, 2021
Guardian blog reporting that Labor will vote to SUPPORT the government's Beetaloo #RortFiredRecovery

$21m to a company
- neck deep in the Liberal party,
- wined and dined Taylor and his head fundraiser,
- NT govt said was not eligible for the $

backed by ALP.
Senate has the chance to stop this rort to Liberal mates. Is the ALP really going to support it? #RortFiredRecovery

thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/…
Want the sordid timeline? All information here came out through a Senate inquiry backed by the ALP. reneweconomy.com.au/timeline-to-ga…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 22, 2021
Clearest explanation I've heard of what Doherty modelling actually says and doesn't say just now from ACT Chief Minister.

Will be months before thresholds met and even then, "Broad brush talk of 'open up' does not mean there will no public health response".
Also, crucially, we are not starting from where the modelling starts - it assumes no/ v low outbreaks, not current situation
All journalists covering covid response should watch the ACT pressers. Beyond the local matters, super clear explanation of the national situation, calling out misunderstandings without blaming others
Read 6 tweets

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