1/6 Lukashenko was quicker that others to offer a conspiracy theory about Navalny’s poisoning that points the finger at the West. bit.ly/2Gzxl3K
2/6 The Belarusian president’s intervention in the Navalny affair ties it to his country’s unrest, even if the demonstrations did not factor into the decision to attack the opposition leader.
3/6 Few will believe the version of events implied by Lukashenko’s purported recording of a phone call between officials in Berlin and Warsaw. But it is meant to provide Russia’s state propaganda with yet another dubious narrative with which to muddy the waters.
4/6 His life-or-death predicament is forcing Lukashenko to make himself look foolish and ridiculous, all so that Russia concludes that he is a useful ally worth propping up.
5/6 It doesn’t mean he makes exactly the concessions the Kremlin wants from him. He is still unlikely to formally recognize Abkhazia’s independence or Crimea’s status as Russian territory or hand over to Russia’s oligarchs the Belarusian state assets.
6/6 Even so, making less costly concessions—like saving Putin from having to charge that Germany lied about what happened to Navalny—may suffice to get Moscow to forget his campaign rhetoric, which was unequivocally anti-Russian bit.ly/2Gzxl3K
