THREAD 1/5 In the third television appearance within two days on the topic of "#Wagner" and #Prigozhin, Putin spoke about him and his people not as patriots and defenders of the homeland, etc. - as it has been customary before yesterday. 2/5 He spoke about him as a screwed businessman who is trying to have it both ways: he received $ 1 billion for his military company and earned another one billion in a year from food supplies to the Russian military, and probably stole something on the way.

THREAD 1/9 Putin was not present at Erdogan's inauguration, which he would have definitely attended in the past. Me recent piece in @ForeignAffairs explains an important reason foreignaffairs.com/russian-federa… 2/9 The reason is not only the war, but the indictment of the International court Criminal Court against him. For the same reason he is not going to the G-20 in South Africa. foreignaffairs.com/russian-federa…

THREAD 1/6 Why should the West supplying Ukraine with a few dozen tanks make such a difference, when it has already provided so much weaponry? The difference is that weapons and artillery mean a slow war, while tanks mean a fast war. 2/6 New, modern tanks could accelerate the course of the war — at least in theory. After its blitzkrieg failed, Russia adapted its plan, betting instead on a long war, and counting on its bigger population, resources and arms industry to win.

THREAD 1/4 Many Russians approve of the bombardment of Ukraine’s infrastructure because they consider the latter to be a gift to ungrateful Ukrainians, which is not being used for Russia’s benefit. ft.com/content/c24ebf… 2/4 This marks a further break with Soviet identity, which was based on the assumption that factories, bridges and roads throughout the territory were the result of the collective efforts of all the peoples of the Union. ft.com/content/c24ebf…

1/4 "It was obvious that Surovikin's appointment and the praise heaped upon him were at least partly due to the need to create a figure with a mandate for 'shameful' actions that Putin didn't want to take in his own name," said Alexander Baunov 2/4 Surovikin fitted the bill, said Baunov, because his image as a Siberian willing to use brutal tactics to get results appealed to Russian nationalists and he had the authority in their eyes to oversee a retreat without opening up too many dangerous internal divisions.

THREAD 1/8 No matter how indirect and unintended it may have been, the explosion in Poland looks ominous amid the endless calls by Russian hawks who want to see a “proper war” to strike the territory of a NATO country as a deterrent. carnegieendowment.org/politika/88428 2/8 As Ukraine’s most fervent supporter and the main logistical center for supplies of Western weapons, Poland is frequently named among the primary targets of such threats bit.ly/3E5WlK8

THREAD 1/5 From the start of the invasion, there has been speculation that military failure could lead to the downfall of Vladimir Putin. ft.com/content/01cdcc… 2/5 The lack of clearly defined objectives makes the definition of victory uncertain. But this ambiguity also makes the criteria for defeat unclear. In fact, the Russian president had already survived several serious defeats. on.ft.com/3ElNTI1

THRED 1/8 It turns out that the “difficult decisions” referred to by Russia’s General Surovikin earlier did not involve a tactical nuclear bomb, but giving up the Ukrainian city of #Kherson: the only regional capital Russia has managed to take in this war. 2/8 It was obvious that Surovikin’s appointment and the praise heaped upon him were at least partly due to the need to create a figure with a mandate for «shameful» actions that Putin didn’t want to take in his own name.

THREAD 1/8 Putin was angry that European companies, despite the relaxing of sanctions after the grain deal did not return to business as usual with Russian companies. Lavrov openly complained that obstacles to Russian agro-exporters have not disappeared carnegieendowment.org/politika/88332 2/8 There were also non-public demands: to return relations with the state run «Rosselkhozbank» (previously it was headed by Dmitry Patrushev, the current Minister of Agriculture and the son of the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev).

1/6 Far more crucial to Lukashenko’s past successes was an overarching consensus shared by the Belarusian elites and wider society that the country’s independence benefitted them, both economically and politically. carnegieendowment.org/politika/88317 2/6 That consensus was already strained by the profound political crisis that followed the fraudulent presidential elections in 2020. Now the war has shattered it almost entirely, having transformed many aspects of Belarusian independence from an asset into a liability.

THREAD 1/12 Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin has said that the partial mobilization announced by Putin last month will end early in the nation’s capital. 2/12 On the one hand, this is routine bureaucracy: the region has met its quota for drafting soldiers, and is simply reporting its progress. (Everyone knows that the regions and the state corporations were given quotas to meet.)

THREAD 1/10 The #Nobel Peace Prize Committee has made a very good decision by awarding this year’s Peace Prize to Belarusian human rights advocate Ales’ Bialiatski, the Russian human rights organization Memorial, and the Ukrainian Center for Civil Liberties. 2/10 This is a very accurate decision that stands in opposition to attempts to divide nations into good and bad ones.

THREAD 1/6 Putin’s speech on the occasion of the annexation of four Ukrainian regions by Russia was a rather tedious enumeration of myths and legends about an ancient and imaginary West. But there were three aspects worthy of attention from a practical point of view. 2/6 i) “The Nord Stream gas pipelines were blow up by the USA.” The practical consequences are that Russia is now “entitled” to respond in kind, Russia is not responsible for stopping energy supplies to Europe, & Gazprom may not have to pay for missed deliveries.

1/6 The big picture: Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Endowment describes Putin's Russia as a "country of fences," where citizens sacrifice political rights for security, but keep a fence around their private lives. axios.com/2022/09/29/put… 2/6 Putin has now breached that fence — and violated his "unwritten contract" — by taking "husbands, sons, brothers into the army," Baunov says.

THREAD 1/9 Today, with no warning, amendments to Russian law were introduced to the Duma & immediately passed in 3 readings. They bring Russia much closer to full mobilization & stipulate harsh penalties for failing to report for military duty, surrendering, or refusal to fight. 2/9 Taken together with demands for “immediate,”—maybe even online—referendums in all parts of occupied Ukrainian territory on becoming part of Russia, the message is clear.

THREAD 1/10 Alla #Pugacheva, Russia’s biggest pop star for many generations, has spoken out against Putin’s war in Ukraine. She also spoke in defense of her husband, the comedian & actor Maxim Galkin, who was labeled a foreign agent on Friday after previously condemning the war. 2/10 Pugacheva and Galkin left Russia soon after its invasion of Ukraine. Galkin, an immensely popular TV star and household name, was instantly critical of the war, but Pugacheva, who is considerably older than her husband, was less vocal, though their departure spoke volumes.

THREAD 1/6 Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive is having multiple political effects. Here are four of them:

i) Moscow has postponed referenda on occupied Ukrainian territory becoming part of Russia. 2/6 It’s one thing to lose a piece of hostile territory, and quite another to lose a piece of territory officially proclaimed as part of Russia. That would be a terrible blow to the Kremlin’s prestige.

THREAD 1/12 With the outbreak of the war, three social groups took shape. First, there are the declared opponents of the war. This attitude can be expressed above all by those who can afford to leave Russia, but the aversion to the war is no less among many who have stayed 2/12 On the other hand, there are those who simply adapt to life under the new conditions, who try to block out the war, so to speak, in order to preserve as much as possible, the normality of the past bit.ly/3Ayx21n

THREAD 1/7 My 2-hour interview with @yurydud in Athens now has English subtitles. And 6,8 million viewers
A few more thoughts from that interview here: 2/7 On Putin’s popularity in some countries, including Greece: It’s not Putin’s body or brain that’s popular. It’s his function of opposing the West that is popular in the rest of the non-Western world—or the world that for different reasons dislikes America.

THREAD 1/14 The interview with Yuri Dud @yurydud has exceeded 5,4 millions of viewers in just 4 days . Yuri is a genius. But the questions raised in our conversation obviously concern the Russian-speaking audience 2/14 The subtitles are nit ready, but here @neverscaredb has voluntarily translated some points of it into English

https://twitter.com/neverscaredb/status/1555158760435421185

Below I quote his tweets with gratitude

THREAD 1/10 Significant exemptions from the sanctions regime, which Russia received in exchange for a deal, allow it to take advantage of high prices on the world market and to realize its own record harvest, and close to the Kremlin agro-holdings - not to lose export revenue. 2/10 We are talking about quite significant amounts. In 2021 grain supplies abroad brought Russia $11 billion, a year earlier - $10 billion. bit.ly/3b7vR0b