DeFi truism:
1. DeFi is a rerun of the 2008 asset backed finance bubble on speed. Predictable with self-gobbling mechanisms multiplying systematic risk via leverage in the system & composability
2. The bubble will be bigger than 17’, due to leverage & shorts
3. People will scam
4. Eventually the Cambrian explosion will implode on bag holders, but the winners have a leg up in regulated markets. Their DeFi financialization protocols will be battle tested in a way no sandbox can match
5. Security tokens will win demand from tegaukted DeFi before enterprise
*regulated DeFi before enterprise security token gain any significant market cap. No matter which consortia is behind it
6. Some DeFi projects will immigrate to CBDC networks it’s corporate chains, after they’ve gained enough capital
7. The low interest rate & geopolitical uncertainty means Wall Street sharks are playing in the relatively small pond of DeFi foodies. Be careful!
They’re the people that know how to hedge for the eventual implosion
They’ll be looking to see when the risk profile in the system changes & it’s time to stock up on all those CDS/synthetic shorts.
8. The real question is which product is the most trust worthy instrument for the implosion
9. The crypto community has been looking at unsecured lending as a goal, yet hasn’t fully integrated a robust identity system for credit assessments or credentials.
10. Exchanges otoh use a porous identity sharing system cuz they actually need to share compliance data

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More from @mayazi

29 Aug
A lot of DeFi is a sequel to the 17’ ICO bubble, not because these projects are scammy. The criminals haven’t arrived yet, but because of 3 primary drivers in the crypto market:
- Post-ICO projects w/ deep crypto treasuries that manages to survive the bear markets w/real products
2. Eth killers with 9-figure foundations, VCs & ecosystem funds that have yet to launch & need to demonstrate PMF to maintain their token’s price. What better way than to attract/invest in some DeFi infrastructure
3. DeFi actually uses infrastructure products the ICOs funded
That’s a signal that money is coming in to this bubble in the middle of a low yield environment where everyone is already trading by memes for random returns
Read 5 tweets
15 Jul 19
with genuine humility i bring u some comments on David Marcus's attempt at Libra-splaining to congress, any snark is pathos free & unitentional. the fault is on the Zuck
banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…
Marcus is careful to describe Libra as a payment infrastructure, although no token has managed to this day to deliver a scalable solution that can be deployed to millions, the ambition of Libra is far greater than that, and we have no assurance that is even plausible 2/
Even if users only use Libra for payments (a theoretical) don't ignore the fact that Libra membership is a security token, earning their holders a share in the interest income of the reserves. it's income on FB's R&D costs no less.
Read 38 tweets
4 Jun 19
Short thread on the app-ripple effect of the Apple privacy/identity announcement. Apple is in midst of transitioning into a service company, where the premium users' pay on hardware is akin to a fee. That tradeoff will tickle down to 3rd party apps who need to contend w/biz model
up till now users' looking to use/access apps were asked to sign up using an identity layer (FB/Google) or share their email. the biz model was a trade-off, users' data was not only shared with the app, but that identity provider (FB/Google) in the following ways: 2/
1. Sell in-app ads using the combined cross-referenced data from FB/Google, mostly on the FB/Google ad exchanges. Where the tech giants serve as the market infrastructure, the sellers (of attention real estate) & the buyer (for their own content)
Read 9 tweets
17 Apr 19
Thread on Big 4 Blockchain strategy & some enterprise ZKP snarks, as someone who has been shilling ZKPs to enterprise from the get-go when big 4 so called partners were questioning why the f the should care 1/
coindesk.com/ey-nightfall-e…
The @EYIntlTax announcements is big news as an auditing firm becomes a tech stack player, not just a consultant & integrator.
@pbrody has been at the forefront of ZKPs & blockchain for awhile, and has made a huge bet with Nightfall on several fronts:
* open source + copyright waiver - a novelty for an auditing firm, might end up being a huge liability risk as @prestonbryne chimed in.
* SAP ERP modules (licensing, supply chain), where a singular process is represented as ZKP ERC721 token 3/
Read 19 tweets

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