1/x A couple of important notes from Vol-landia today:
1) Fixed strike $SPX vol imploded today w/straddles -$21 to -$32 across OpEx. Given size/speed of $SPX move & technicals this was extreme.Vol compression accelerated into close w/$5-$7 decline post-equity close on market lows
2/x Much like buying felt forced into the close at the top. This selling was beginning to feel forced. 2) skew declined considerably w/1 std dev put wing -$3, 1 std dev call wing +$1. But coming off high levels, it feels more fairly priced now. 3) maybe most importantly,
3/x There was a major break in price change for Vol post 11/4. With straddles 11/20 on back -$16-$17, where as 11/4 (Election Day)was only -$7. this post election Vol has been insanely high due to fear surrounding a disputed election/constitutional crises post election.
4/4 Whether due to new polls/info out today (which I don’t think is true) or simply larger players beginning to provide supply into rich valuation, these high vols definitely began to show their first cracks today & should be monitored for potential follow through in days to come

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More from @jam_croissant

12 Aug
@pat_hennessy @Isa90495157 @Reveretrading @SqueezeMetrics 1)Yes. I agree. To me it seems like common sense. If you are buying puts, you are buying them for a spec or a hedge, especially in the US where the skew is significantly higher than the rest of the world and historically caries a significant risk premium. There is lots of analysi
@pat_hennessy @Isa90495157 @Reveretrading @SqueezeMetrics 2) that basically shows that 90%+of HF ‘alpha’ can be explained by short put exposure. Every quant, prop, and HF I know has some version of the high sharpe/ negative tail trade on with some tail cutting trigger built in. Why wouldn’t you, especially if the Fed has your back.
@pat_hennessy @Isa90495157 @Reveretrading @SqueezeMetrics 3/This is mostly anecdotal evidence, but in the absence of empirical evidence, I have been trading these markets as a major player for decades & my ML models definitely see the flow. My view is the market is increasingly a series of leveraged carry trades, Harvesting risk premium
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