UK government reimposes new national laws on social gatherings as case number rise.

The rise came earlier (when measured by the day of test) than the latest spike in reported cases...
....around the bank holiday

ft.com/content/e26349…

1/
Worse. The rate of positive tests is also rising, so higher numbers of confirmed cases are not due to more testing

2/
Case rates vary across the UK, but are have risen everywhere...

... in five regions/nations, they higher than the level that triggers quarantine for returning travellers

3/
The age profile of positive cases is now concentrated among the young...

... this isn’t a change in the disease as much as a massive and welcome increase in testing....

4/
...and the second piece of good news is the rise in infections is much slower than the first wave ...

...so far

Analysis with the great @jburnmurdoch

/Ends

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Chris Giles

Chris Giles Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ChrisGiles_

3 Sep
There is a big question for any autumn Budget - should @RishiSunak raise taxes (either immediately or deferred a few years)

My bit on that gives a resounding "no" as an answer

ft.com/content/8260fe…
@RishiSunak The immediate priority for economic policy is health.

We don't know the scale of persistent coronavirus economic damage
We don't have sensible medium term forecasts
So we can't know the scale of necessary tax rises
It is honestly fine to have a Budget with palpably unsustainable public finance forecasts in these circumstances

The fiscal rules have a "comply or explain" element - now is the time to explain

And build the case for necessary tax rises which have the least economic costs
Read 5 tweets
24 Aug
It looks like the UK economy has enjoyed a remarkable bounce in the third quarter so far....

1/

ft.com/content/35e187…
Consumers have put caution aside at least for now

2/
- Eat out ot help out is quite a success
- lower VAT on hospitality
- staycations

means pubs, restaurants have been full especially on Mondays to Wednesdays

Data from @OpenTableUK

3/
Read 5 tweets
19 Aug
A thread on:

Why we need an algorithm to help set A Level grades in 2021

(After the past week, I'm honestly not being obtuse)

1/
Yes, I understand that the choices made in this year's A level standardisation algorithm were disastrous....

2/

But as the FT editorial board and others have explained, this was much more a human rathen than an algorithmic failing

3/

ft.com/content/58dcbf…
Read 11 tweets
15 Aug
Ofqual has published guidelines on how it might revise grades based on “valid” mock results

Everyone knows this to be a bit of a panic response to the disastrous moderation exercise

Also entirely unnecessary if brains had been engaged earlier

1/
gov.uk/government/new…
The twin disasters of the process were an inability to allow for exceptions - the star pupils in ordinary schools (marked down) and occasional horror in a top school (lucky sod) - and decision not to standardise everyone, providing systematic bias in favour of private schools...
... with small cohorts

The peculiar achievement was to exacerbate unfairness with a standardisation process normally designed to encourage it. 👏👏👏
Read 10 tweets
24 Jul
Quick thread on a question I often ask when reading lobby group reports

DO THEY THINK WE'RE STUPID?

This relates to @TheCityUK report on recapitalisation. My column was on its central theme, but this thread will examine its evidence on levelling up
ft.com/content/062817…

1/
@TheCityUK In their report, thecityuk.com/assets/2020/Re…, they include this chart as evidence that bad Covid debts will hit areas outside London the hardest.

2/
@TheCityUK This is the sole evidence they use and by my count, they repeat it 8 times in the report.

It seems to convince them that areas outside the capital are most at risk and this will hinder levelling up

3/
Read 8 tweets
23 Jul
The @bankofengland Monetary Policy Committee has a favourite chart at the moment....

.... it is a measure of real time spending from its own CHAPS payment system.

BoE won't (yet) publish the data daily for no good reason, but here it is in three Acts

1. Haldane "so far, so V"
@bankofengland 2. Tenreyro: "social consumption is not recovering as quickly"
@bankofengland 3. Haskel (today): " consumption is bouncing back"

(Actually it doesn't show that - it shows consumption recovery has stalled and is moving backward!)
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!