The Paris Agreement aims to hold "the increase in the global average temperature to ๐ฐ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐ยฐ๐ above pre-industrial levels & ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ฌ to limit the temperature increase to ๐.๐ยฐ๐..."
Which of the SR15 scenario categories meet that criteria?
A few points:
* Does "lower 2ยฐC" or "upper 2ยฐC" qualify as "well below 2ยฐC"?
* Are scenarios that never go above 1.5ยฐC too extreme (ie, scenarios that exceed the aims)
* What to do with the peak & decline profile (which has consequences on large-scale carbon dioxide removal)?
Record high emissions means record high radiative forcing.
We have you covered, we also include aerosols (SO2, etc) & have done so for decades. Also shipping!
Short-lived aerosols are important, but should not distract from the drivers of change: greenhouse gas emissions!
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Most of the energy put into the system ends in the ocean (90%), so the Ocean Heat Content (OHC) has been increasing along with emissions and radiative forcing.
This also means the Earth Energy Imbalance is also increasing.
This question is ambiguous: "How high above pre-industrial levels do you think average global temperature will rise between now and 2100?"
* ...pre-industrial... between "now and 2100"?
* Where we are currently heading or where we could head? This is largely a policy question?
3/
One of the key arguments that Norway uses to continue oil & gas developments, is that under BAU it is expected that oil & gas production will decline in line with <2ยฐC scenarios, even with continued investment.
Let's look closer at these projections & reality...
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Here is the projections from the 2003 report from the petroleum agency.
In reality (tweet 1) there was a dip around 2010, but production is now up around 250 million cubic again.
The forecast was totally & utterly WRONG!
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In 2011 there was a forecast for an increase in production to 2020, but then a decline. This is probably since they started to put the Johan Sverdrup field on the books.
The increase in production was way too low, again, they got it wrong.