Diane Swonk Profile picture
Sep 9, 2020 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Anniversaries of those we lost are even harder through the fog of #COVID19. Dad would have been 82 today. 19 years ago, he came to Chicago to celebrate w my young children. We had to do it a day early - I had a trip to NY. Had a conference I had worked on. Picked the location.
He took me to the airport. It is something he did, even though I could have gotten their on my own. He liked to drive - cars were his life - and it gave him time with talk with me. We had some of our most important and difficult conversations, sitting side by side in a car.
He told me that he had his “best birthday ever.” He often said that about events that included me and the kids. It was intense but I understand it differently through the lens of a pandemic. It was his way of holding onto the joy of a moment that might too quickly pass.
He was nervous. He didn’t like flying - was always worried the plane would crash. It was an obsession. He had a lot of those. Another was instability in the Middle East. He was convinced we would suffer a terrorist attack. Worried about it since I was a kid...
Three days later I realized his fear as I fled the World Trade Center with my colleagues. Two days after that I used the last of my cell phone battery to call my dad again in the wee hours of the morning. The car a colleague and I escaped Manhattan from had broken down.
I knew he would come. He had a bag packed the moment he heard what happened. I was still four hours from home but only 45 minutes from him. He came faster than that. I have no idea how fast he drove. This time we didn’t talk. He let me sit in the silence of my shock and grief.
He took me home to my kids. My young son wrapped his little arms around me. I picked up my daughter from school - I dropped to my knees as she came running into my arms. That is when I was still “Mommy!” I didn’t cry until I got home.
I escaped the World Trade Center and with it carried the souls who lost their lives with me. We have lost so many more to the pandemic. Thank you dad for being there then and for reminding me how important it is to mark our moments of joy. I celebrate this day of your birth.

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More from @DianeSwonk

Jan 18
Data disruptions. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is down ~ 30% on staffing incl leadership roles. That has left them scrambled post shutdown to try to do more w/less, inc key regional survey offices closed. That has meant that tough decisions on filling gaps in the data had to be made.
The fallback is that historic prices are carried forward, which means if inflation is moving more rapidly in one direction or another, the data are understating those moves. This is especially true for the CPI.

The decisions are not political in nature but are consequential as staffing cuts…
…where made without any kind of benefit cost analysis. (Understatement.)

The result will distort our view and that of the Federal Reserve’s, notably on inflation for some time to come.

Why do we care? Because the credibility in our data is being questioned, which undermines the basic..
Read 13 tweets
Sep 25, 2025
Why do economists care about inequality in incomes and wealth?

1) Inequality tends to dampen overall economic performance. One of most immediacy effects is on consumer spending. Low-and middle-income households spend a larger percentage of each dollar that they spend….
…when more spending is in the hands of higher income households, overall spending is less than it would otherwise be.

2) Social and economic mobility drop, which leaves large swaths of untapped talent that have less access to resources to develop their talent.
3) Asset bubbles become more common, which threatens financial stability. Affluent households have more savings and can afford to take on riskier bets than low-and middle-income households. That tends to increase what is known as the reach for yield & foment asset price bubbles.🫧
Read 8 tweets
Sep 17, 2025
Powell corralled the cats & achieved an unusual amount of unity amidst a high level of uncertainty about the outlook.

The Fed cut by a quarter point, but there was only one dissent by newly appt Gov Miran, who wanted a more aggressive half percent cut.
Powell referred to the move down by a quarter point as a “risk management cut.”

One silent dissent was in the what is known as the dot plot. There was one person at the meeting who did not want any cut today.

Presidents do not usually vote in a vacuum.
That means that even if that was a voting member, they didn’t have enough support within in the meeting to cast a dissenting.

The median for the rest of the year is for two more cuts, but a lot of push back within the Fed on that; 7 of 19 participants penciled in 1 cut or less
Read 20 tweets
Sep 11, 2025
Producers prices reveal margin compression, consumer prices moving higher.

That is what the Fed forecast would happen in 2025. Proven harder to live with increases in inflation & unemployment in real time.
Goods and services both risking, with affluent households buoying travel costs.

Those out on vacation in August dropped to second lowest on record as low and middle income households curbed discretionary spending. Travel over labor day hit all time high.
Air fares snd hotel rooms regained ground lost earlier in the year.

Vehicles and vehicle repairs moving up with other big ticket goods prices. That will spillover into the cost of insurance along with last year’s hurricanes and fires at start of year.
Read 8 tweets
Aug 12, 2025
Good news. Inflation comes in as expected quit more drag from shelter costs. Rents are cooling and hotel room rates continued to plummet in July.

The sticking point is the Core CPI, which was up 0.3% but rounded to a 3.1% gain from a year ago.
That is the hottest pace for the core, which excludes the volatile food and energy components.

Why does the Fed care so much about the core. It included more things it can affect and it tends to be the best indicator of where momentum is headed, which is up for prices.
Durable goods prices increased at their fastest year over year pace since November 2022 after placing a drag on inflation much of last year and the start of this year.

The super core services, which strips out shelter and utilities, soared 0.5%, it fastest pace since January.
Read 10 tweets
Aug 1, 2025
Employment stalls out in July with huge downward revisions to previous months.

We only saw 85K jobs per month year to date, down from 168K average in 2024.

The three legs of job gains since mid 2023 - state & local, healthcare & social assistance & leisure & hospitality -….
…are down to one. Health care & social assistance, buoyed by aging demographics as opposed to a strong economy accounted for all of the job gains in July.

That is not a stable place to be.

Average hourly earnings jumped 0.3% and accelerated to 3.9%.
There was a surge in retail wages, which jumped 1.2% in July alone, its fastest pace emerging from the pandemic in July 2020.

A rise minimum wages amplified that “unseasonal jump” in retail wages. Brace for some give back in August.
Read 14 tweets

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