Second #MissileDialogueInitiative by @IISS_org and @AuswaertigesAmt was as good as one can get via Zoom. Lots of frank discussions. One of the interesting things: there are different perspectives on what is a bigger/more important challenge - land or sea/air systems.
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It is a challenge, and no definite answer: everyone has their own threat perceptions and priorities.
Here's an example:
A relies on land, B relies on air/sea;
B has better, faster, more precise flying and floating things; in greater numbers;
A starts to...
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...increase all these characteristics for their rolling things+their survivability;
suddently B realizes that A can hit their flying and floating things and their infrastructure with their rollers, and gets nervous.
Now drop some defensive assets in the mix...
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...and remember, that we are speaking about systems of systems. Both A and B undestand it. And they will get ready to hit the weak links in those systems, both offensive (enter 'left-of-launch') and defensive (hello, 'command centers').
Missiles are fun!
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Gerasimov delivered a briefing for military attaches today.
Lots of traditional points, some plain mistakes (e.g. "Dark Typhon"), but also some important points. Some quotes below.
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"The issue of arms control is a thing of the past, as a return to a minimum level of trust is now impossible due to the double standards of Western countries.
And without trust, it is impossible to create an effective mechanism of mutual control."
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"The new foundations of state policy [on nuclear deterrence] became the occasion for an active propaganda campaign in the West accusing Russia of strengthening its nuclear rhetoric and seeking to lower the threshold of nuclear deterrence."
No one expected the Third Stage of the NSNW exercise.
Southern and Central MD Iskanders practice receiving nuclear munitions and electronic launches. Air-Space Forces also practice receiving nukes and carry out patrol flights.
12 Main Directorate convoy shown a lot in the video.
Strange pointy thing under canvas on a small cart looks funny.
What can be intercepted with which means depends on quite a number of factors and their mutual effects: where the incoming missile is launched from, where its target is, where the "anti-missile" launcher is...
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...and, perhaps most importantly, where the defending side's radars are (detecting, targeting, etc.).
How coordinated the "incoming" and "outgoing" salvos are also very important.
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On Kinzhal as a "real hypersonic weapon" I hoped everything was decided back in 2018: speed above 5 Mach, maneuvering inside the atmosphere, a significant "non-ballistic" part of the trajectory - bingo, this is it. That said...
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Rather long interview with Vladimir Degtyar, head of Makeyev design bureau and basically liquid-fuel missiles tzar: rg.ru/2022/11/23/sil…
Sarmat in serial production (probably he means parts of it)
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Sarmat warheads have are GLONASS-assisted and covered in some sort of stealth coating that complicates their detection and trajectory calculation both in the atmosphere and in outer space
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Cooperation with VNIITF on payloads included "combining izdeliye bodies (aeroshells? warheads?), expanding the range of standard sizes, solving the problems of hypersonic flight"
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Rather big and detailed interview with Yuri Borisov, current had of Roscosmos, about challenges and plans: tass.ru/interviews/163…
[In Russian, but will make a thread later]
Industrial approach to satellite-building planned to switch from current ~15 satellites per year to a satellite per day. Existing approach might give 40 per year though, but a change is needed to achieve modern mega-constellation capability. Expected around 2026...
Sphera project will be a major instrument: five orbital communication constellations and five new Earth remote sensing constellations based on smallsats. First stage with 127 spacecraft by 2026.