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Intrinsic Compounding

@soicfinance

Jun 13

Did you know?
1 in every 5 iPhones sold globally is now made in India!

But when did this major supply chain shift begin—and how quickly is it accelerating?

Let’s break it down in this thread:
How fast is Apple moving its supply chain to India?👇
#MakeInIndia

1/n
The 20 % milestone

> One in every five iPhones sold worldwide now sports a “Made-in-India” label.

> Bloomberg data show India’s share of global iPhone output hitting 20 % in April 2025, up from ~3 % in FY-22—a six-fold relocation in just three years.

> Because total iPhone volume stayed flat, the entire gain is pure supply-chain migration.

> That shift injected US $10 bn+ of value-add into Indian factories in FY-24 alone and is compounding monthly.

> Analysts following Apple’s purchase orders expect 25-30 % of all iPhones to be India-made by December 2025.

2/n
But on first place why it was China that became the iphone factory...

Its first of all is not just low labour cost but high level of integrated economy

> Foxconn’s Zhengzhou campus—dubbed “iPhone City”—opened in 2010 with its own 24-hour customs gate, onsite tax offices and a dedicated cargo airport spur.

> Export rebates, free-trade zones and lightning infrastructure let phones clear to DHL trucks in under an hour.

> At peak season the complex employed 300 k + workers and pumped out 500 000 handsets a day, roughly half of global iPhone output.

Hundreds of satellite plants—glass, screws, speakers—sit within a two-hour truck run, compressing Apple’s product-cycle from months to weeks.

> For a decade no other country matched that density of skills, parts and incentives—until Covid lockdowns and tariff walls rewrote the math.

In simple terms it was both because of scale and largely integrated supply chain network that made iphone manufacturing luring in India

Video credits - Victor Mochere (Youtube)

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Intrinsic Compounding

@soicfinance

Jun 7

From brake to throttle: in just 18 months the RBI swung 250 bp—first draining ₹2 tn of liquidity, then pumping in nearly ₹3 tn.

Das bowed out with a CRR cut; Malhotra stormed in with OMOs and three rate cuts.

Banks, EMIs, Capex—everything’s shifting. Let’s unpack the ripple effects 👇

Before exploring the widespread effects, let's clarify the distinction between fiscal and monetary policy (Economics 101).

Additionally, we'll examine historical trends of rising and subsequently falling interest rate cycles.

Monetary policy is the central bank’s joystick, nudging growth by adjusting money supply and interest rates;

Fiscal policy is the government’s checkbook, steering demand through spending and taxation.

Read 18 tweets

Intrinsic Compounding

@soicfinance

Jun 4

A single drug class is crashing diet programs, trimming grocery bills, and forcing pharma to pour >$40 B into new plants. Welcome to the #GLP1 era.

Here’s the deep dive you didn’t know you needed.👇

First let's understand how it works?

GLP-1 receptor agonists mimic an incretin hormone →
Insulin up📈, Glucagon📉& Gastric emptying, 🧠 Appetite off-switch.

The result? Better sugars and major weight loss—something insulin never managed.

Early agents shaved off a few kilos. New-age Semaglutide & Tirzepatide erase 15–20 % body-weight—approaching bariatric surgery without the scalpel.
This efficacy has turned a diabetes drug class into a blockbuster obesity treatment.

GLP-1 RAs have been used for over two decades, building a safety record . Only in recent years, with potent versions (e.g. weekly injections), have they gained mainstream fame for weight loss. Their ability to address the global obesity epidemic with a pharmacological tool (not just lifestyle changes) makes them transformative.

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Intrinsic Compounding

@soicfinance

Mar 11

🧵Indian Airlines' Global Takeoff: Can They Dominate the Skies?

> IndiGo & Air India are on a mission to capture 50%+ of India's international air traffic.
> A fierce battle with global giants like Emirates & Qatar Airways is underway!

Dive in the details below 👇

Source - Statista

1/ Indian Airlines Eye 50% International Market Share by 2025

> Indian carriers currently hold ~43% share in international passenger traffic.

> The target is to cross 50% by 2025, reducing dependence on foreign airlines.

> IndiGo and Air India are leading this push with aggressive expansion plans.

2/ IndiGo's International Ambitions

> Currently India’s largest airline, IndiGo aims to sell 15 million international tickets in 2025.

> Expanding rapidly in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Europe.

> Placed record-breaking aircraft orders to support long-haul operations.

>Plans to start direct flights to new destinations in the US, UK, and Africa.

Read 10 tweets

Intrinsic Compounding

@soicfinance

Oct 20, 2024

3 Key Learnings about the Solar Industry from a visit to a Renewables Exhibition ☀️

We recently visited the Renewables Exhibition in Noida. We had three distinct observations post meeting the industry participants there:

1) Massive Oversupply

A massive oversupply is going to come in Solar Modules two years down the line. There is an Anti-Dumping Duty of 40%+ on import of solar modules, this has led to a lot of domestic production.

In the next 2 years, the industry will cross 100 GW of production capacity; out of which 60% can be produced. The annual demand in India is 40 GW, industry participants are betting that the rest can be exported.

2) Abnormal Profitability

Due to domestic content requirements, players in solar cells are making abnormal profits. Abnormal profitability means EBITDA margins of more than 50-60%.

Cell manufacturing is technologically intensive and India still imports 95% of its solar cell requirements.

Many module players like Goldi Solar, Waaree, Vikram, Solex, etc have announced plans to manufacture solar cells.

Cell breakage will be a big factor in determining the quality and eventual margins when this cycle of abnormal profitability ends.

Cells from China are imported at 4 cents per cell and cells made in India are selling at 14 cents right now; such is the level of difference.

Technology in cells keeps changing every 2-3 years, one has to be very careful with assessing players here if the technology they have is old.

Read 4 tweets

Intrinsic Compounding

@soicfinance

Feb 14, 2024

https://x.com/soicfinance/status/1748619046608843155?s=20

Decoding the Sovereign Gold Bond Saga: A Comprehensive Thread on India's Gold Investment Evolution🪙

Launched in 2015 by the Government of India, the Sovereign Gold Bond (SGB) scheme provides a novel way for investors to own gold without the hassle of physical possession. The scheme aims to channelize idle gold into productive avenues and reduce the dependency on physical gold. #sgb

If you're looking for a comprehensive comparison of various gold investments (GOLD ETFs vs PHYSICAL GOLD vs SGB) before delving into this detailed thread on Sovereign Gold Bonds, you can check out the previous post on - GOLD INVESTMENT OPTIONS () Let’s unroll the thread 🧵🧵

🌟 Key Features of SGB:⭐

1. Issued by RBI for the Government of India :
SGBs are issued by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on behalf of the Government of India, ensuring credibility and government backing.

2. Denominated in Grams, Flexible Investment :
SGBs are denominated in grams of gold, allowing investors to start with a minimum investment of 1 gram and go up to a maximum of 4 kg per fiscal year for individuals and Hindu Undivided Families (HUFs).

3. Fixed Interest Rate - 2.5% Per Annum 📈:
SGBs carry a fixed annual interest rate of 2.5%, payable semi-annually on the nominal value of the bond. Taxable as the slab rate of individuals.

4. Maturity and Exit Options 📅:
SGBs have a maturity period of 8 years, but investors can opt to exit after the fifth year on the interest payment dates.

5. Secondary Market Trading and Loan Collateral :
SGBs can be traded in the secondary market through stock exchanges, providing liquidity. Additionally, they can be used as collateral for loans, offering a unique dimension to their utility.

https://x.com/soicfinance/status/1748619046608843155?s=20

Let's dive into the performance of SGB (Sovereign Gold Bonds) over the years! 📈 The inaugural SGB came into existence in 2015, reaching maturity in 2023, completing a 8-year cycle. 🎉

When it was first issued in 2015, the rate stood at ₹2684/1gm. Fast forward to November 2023, and the issue rate had climbed to ₹6199/1gm. As an illustrative example, let's consider a gold purchase of 5 grams, equivalent to an investment of ₹13,420 at the time of the initial issue. Fast forward to the present, and with the current issue rate, that same 5 grams of gold is now valued at ₹30,995.0. 💰

Now we will calculate XIRR for the whole 8 yrs and surprising revelation as we calculate the for 8-year period, considering the semi-annual interest of 2.5%( which was ₹167.75 every 6 months) 🔄. See Below ⬇️⬇️

The XIRR for this period comes out to be 12.81%! ✨
We have attached the excel sheet for your calculation and also for future XIRR calculation of your SGB returns - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

To simplify tracking of Sovereign Gold Bond (SGB) prices, we've created an Excel sheet that gets updated with each new issue. ✨ Save this sheet for future reference to easily monitor and stay informed about SGB prices. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

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