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🏛Seeking wisdom in the Indian Stock Markets. We are not SEBI Registered Advisors/Analyst, nothing should be considered as investment advice.
njain Profile picture sudhirkochhar Profile picture Sharad Tripathi Profile picture mandavasb Profile picture ysundeep Profile picture 18 added to My Authors
22 Jul
I have seen plenty of Buffettology on Twitter and in other places over the past few years. Its time to clear the air and understand that there wasn't one but 3 different Warren Buffett's that existed throughout his career 📚📚

Time for a thread: 3 Different Buffett's 🧵🧵🧵
One of the biggest mistakes that you as an investor can make is to forget the basic and the most important mental model an investor can have: Numeracy. Being fluent with numbers and respecting the context in which Buffett made his returns.
At the beginning of his career, let's call this Warren Buffett 1 i.e. Between 1957-1968. This was the time when he was working with small sums of money. He was extremely valuation conscious and guess what. How many stocks did he buy and sell between this period?
Read 25 tweets
16 Jul
Let's Understand why Narrative is important in investing and how to create a Thesis that can help you to hold a stock in spite of the market environments

Time for a thread with international and Indian examples, Please retweet so that everyone can benefit 🧵🧵🧵🧵
The world we see and defined is given meaning by the words we choose to use. In short, the world is what we make of it. Something similar applies to creating a thesis before investing in a stock. Your thesis is what makes you hold a stock thick and through in spite of bull/bear
Example 1: Amazon- In May 1997, Amazon became a publically listed business. The target price set by analysts was $18 per share. It finished its first day at $23 per share. (So much for targets). In 1999, in the middle of the tech bubble. Same stock was trading at $100 per share.
Read 20 tweets
20 Jun
SOIC Book Reviews: Dhandho Investor in the Indian Context 🇮🇳🇮🇳

Link to the video 🔗:
Scenarios that often lead to a depressed stock price, Low risk and high uncertainty where often deep value opportunities are available 🚪
Before investing you should ask these questions to yourself otherwise you might enter the Chakravyuh but won't be able to exit like Abhimanyu. Both power of focus and circle of competence are key learnings from this episode 🏹
Read 6 tweets
30 May
SOIC Industry Analysis|Saregama&The Music Industry. Internet beneficiaries?🎵

Link to the video🔗:
How the value chain for Film Music looks like:
How the value chain for Non-Film music looks like:
Read 4 tweets
28 May
Markets reward businesses that display the ability to diversify into adjacencies while at the same time maintaining their return ratios.Signals expanding size of opportunity and managements ability to identify more profit pools

Time for a thread with examples 🧵
Astralpoly🚰 isn't just a pipes company anymore. It is a water solutions provider dealing in Adhesives, Tanks, Valves, and Pipes. Homework for everyone: check the CFO compounding of the last decade
Divis Labs💊-again another API Champion which is entering Contrast Media API's which a very concentrated segment. They believe they have the process chemistry advantage over here as well!
Read 8 tweets
27 May
In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield. Be forward-looking as an investor. Read everything about the industry, peers, new products, new methods of distribution, etc.

My go-to resources📝📝

3)QIP docs
4)Annual Reports
5)Magazines like contract pharma, chemical weekly, Forbes, Outlook Business, etc

6)Better to know as much before you are investing. Only annual reports won't cut in today's investing world due to the increasing amount of change that is taking place

7)Read about international
players as much as possible. Looking at what has happened in the international industry can you give you some insight what can happen in the Indian industry :)

The key to it all is consistency- just read for 90mins a day for the next 3 years. The only way to get ahead is reading
Read 6 tweets
3 Nov 20
Some Questions on Laurus (I totally respect everyone else's view, these are just mine, not arguing but engaging in civilized debate like humans used to do)
Watson: Laurus has been using aggressive accounting policies and in the H1FY21 bunching of inventories has led to CFO/EBITDA deteriorating

Sherlock: Such a question was expected from you, Watson! (mockingly) Let's take a longer time horizon and check the CFO/PAT & CFO/EBITDA
CFO/EBITDA for the past years

2016: 55%
2017: 75%
2018: 77%
2019: 80%
2020: 61%

in the first half of 2020, this has fallen to somewhere around 50%. A bystander would consider this to be a red flag, however in growing companies (whenever the growth is rapid and especially
Read 19 tweets
31 Oct 20
Suven Pharmaceuticals Concall Updates:

Suven Pharma Concall Updates Q2FY21

I attended it live, there could be a mistake or two

Comparison of our business should be done yearly and not quarterly as we have said before (Due to lumpiness)
Growth guidance of 15-20% remains intact, expecting H2FY21 to be much stronger.

Product mix has also led to a decline in margins also environment-related costs have gone up.

Categorically denied the rumours of selling the business, stated that such news was there 9 months ago
and 1 year ago as well. No plans to sell.
Read 15 tweets
30 Oct 20
Pi Industries Concall Update *Q2 FY20*

Industries Q2FY21 Concall

I will be dividing this concall into 3 parts: Business, Risk and Management


Both the existing molecules and the recently commercialized molecules have seen a good uptick.

More than 10 products in the
R&D pipeline in pharma. Commentary of Global Agri Innovators has shown robust strength.

Domestic Business improved by 33% and the export business grew by 25%. Topline grew by 28%.ISAGRO forms 11% of the consolidated topline.
Utilization levels are heading back to Pre-covid levels. Going forward, focusing more to improve the asset utilization levels.

EBITDA margins expanded by 293 bps due to better product mix and operating leverage. Capex done till H1FY21 is 116 crores, target for the entire year
Read 17 tweets
27 Oct 20
APL Apollo Steel Tubes Stock Visualisation 🏗️🏠 ImageImageImageImage
Read 10 tweets
24 Oct 20
Q2FY21 Concall Updates: Business, Risk and Management

-Credit Rating has been upgraded by ICRA on back of the upgrade by Crisil in the last quarter.

-Topline was up by 12% (YOY) and 23% on QoQ basis.

-Margins remained at 32% and experienced 150BPS reduction in expenses primarily due to power cost and RM cost coming down,
and change in mix of the business.
-Staff cost increased by 22% to 161 crores as compared to 132 Crores last year, which led to a 15% increase in employee cost.

-Currently we have 5200 employees as compared to 4700 employees last year
Read 17 tweets
1 Oct 20
How cycles turn?

Gujarat Ambuja exports limited🌽 fell from a peak mutliple of 30 to 10 times. As the maize prices rose due to fall Armyworm infestations etc from Rs14-15 to Rs 24-25 . Since Gael entered into Fixed contracts and is partly a commoditized player, margins fell
In the maize segment to low single digits. They have consistently made a 15% Roce in this business for the last decade. This was part 1 of the cycle, when the markets perception changed from Growth PE to a steady state mutliple as business experienced headwinds
Part 2- nearly 10% of the industry capacity collapsed as they couldn't bear the hike in RM prices. In terms of competitive scenario, competitive intensity just lessened. Yet it was being valued below 10 times due to uncertainty in the short run.
Read 8 tweets
10 Sep 20
Stock Visualisation🔗: Bal Krishna Industries🚜

Video Link🎥:

Look for a low cost producer with expanding margins. #BKT ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
4 Sep 20
Variant Perception 🎯

“To be able to take advantage of such divergences, you have to think in a way that departs from the consensus; you have to think different and better. This goal can be described as second-level thinking or variant perception”
- Howard Marks ImageImageImageImage
Read 8 tweets
21 Aug 20
Variant perception makes money in the market. Look for stories that have the following ingredients:

1) Margin expansion play like Britannia in 2014. Maybe Hikal?

2) Industry recovery. Where you know industry is shallow cyclical and will recover. Bkt and Pi industries.
3) Management change. When the underlying business is strong enough, but being run by a poor management. By far the trickiest play. Eg - Essel Propack

4) Operating leverage kicking in. No one truly understands the power of operating leverage. Bottomline growth often suprises.
5) Product mix change. Look for companies entering higher margin products. Sit on them, be early in the story. Eg- Garware Technical fibres and maybe Dmcc today?

6) Special situations. When the good, the bad and the ugly trade together. Valuations given thag are of the ugly. Eg
Read 7 tweets
18 Aug 20
“The simpler it is, the better I like it”
- Peter Lynch

Applying the Peter Lynch Framework in the 🇮🇳Indian Context

Video Link🎥:

PDF Link🔗:

@unseenvalue @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid @NileshShah68 @jatin_khemani ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
12 Aug 20
The Journey of Kiran Mazumdar Shaw & her Two Outliers:
Biocon & Syngene🧬🔬💊

@unseenvalue @varinder_bansal @rohitchauhan @Gautam__Baid @dmuthuk @punitbansal14
Read 4 tweets
22 Jul 20
Multiple levers to get the customer in, some supplementing each other. Reminds us of the Octopus Model🦑

@SamitVartak @dmuthuk @unseenvalue @varinder_bansal

Credits for the model: @saurabh_madaan & @safalniveshak Image
Difference in interpretation, just think of it this way. Suppose you’re a Japanese MNC, availing discovery services from Syngene (first tentacle), the molecule subsequently progresses to the second stage i.e. the development (2nd tentacle). The MNC is very lucky and the molecule
Is commercialised. Syngene helps you in manufacturing too (3rd tentacle). Low cost acts as another tentacle as average salary of an Indian scientist is $60,000 vs $250,000 in Usa. You help in cutting costs by 40-50%. The rest of the tentacles help in supplementing the platform
Read 6 tweets