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Bill Brewster Profile picture
@BillBrewsterTBB
Sep 10, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Talking to a buddy in PE. He's getting pitched non stop on starting a SPAC. His question to me "Do you have any clue how easy it is to start a SPAC right now?"

Sounds like something people should invest in...

#sarcasmfont
"I normally get 20% of carry. IBs are pitching me to keep 20% of the company! Just for showing up."
"These investors don't even have antidilution protection. The equity markets are so desperate they have given us a cheat code."
PS. He wants me to talk about this on the pod so it's not like I am talking out of school.

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More from @BillBrewsterTBB

Bill Brewster Profile picture
Dec 3, 2020
@mjmauboussin on real option frameworks.

@ShaiDardashti spread the good word. @IgnoreNarrative and @HaydenCapital both referenced it.

Probably worth a read!

capatcolumbia.com/Articles/FoFin…
Thinking about this a bit...

Conversely, this is a potentially different way of thinking about avoiding value traps. Yes, the current business might be “cheap” but you have this negative momentum which should be viewed as a put to add to your price.
Unfortunately the out can’t protect you with real world options. And, this theoretical put is probably way more expensive than the underwriting assumes because the analyst with a “Value” bent probably under weights how much drag negative inertia creates on an entity.
Read 5 tweets
Bill Brewster Profile picture
Sep 23, 2020
There was something important I wanted to say on today's pod. Hope this goes OK...

As a Wells shareholder I was concerned about Scharf's comments about there not being enough minority talent to fill the roles.
I heard a similar thing from a buddy at a Big 4 accounting firm. He complained that there weren't qualified candidates to hire. In that same conversation he mentioned that they hire from schools that invested in accounting.
That's when things got a little heated. I immediately raised my voice and said "The problem with those two statements is the schools with accounting programs like you're looking for probably underrepresent minorities. Go to Morehouse and find hungry kids. Train them."
Read 11 tweets
Bill Brewster Profile picture
Sep 22, 2020
I’d go with “The public is smart enough to attribute economic weakness to a global pandemic and it’s also very very hard to start figuring out what policy responses could have helped. Especially in an election year.”

But, no doubt CARES act helped a lot.
Would also note I think most people (maybe I’m just seeing myself here) worry about the economic impact of staying closed more than the fear of COVID at this point. And, while that may be a false choice, I haven’t seen nuance in politics lately.
So, when you actually look at data and comp the states, like Florida, that remained mostly open vs states like Illinois it’s easy to argue opening is better for the economy and the risk is overstated. Even if that’s not actually true.
Read 4 tweets
Bill Brewster Profile picture
Sep 17, 2020
I think has a very very strong possibility to dominate audio. They will not realize that potential censoring podcast content. You either go all in or you don't.

Can't sign @joerogan and then be mad when he acts like Joe Rogan.

metro.co.uk/2020/09/02/joe…
@eldsjal Don't back out on this. Sirius didn't censor Stern. Rogan is a comic, not some sage.

You start letting society determine what is acceptable for him to say and you will destroy what you acquired.

#facts
FWIW - I think half his content is garbage. But, I also think some is gold.

What I am extremely opposed to is implementing a strategy and then trying to respond to people's complaints. Comedy has always, and always will, offend some.
Read 4 tweets
Bill Brewster Profile picture
Sep 11, 2020
Transaction Tuesday. I like the common the best out of anything in the capital structure. This one is not for amateurs or the faint of heart. Do NOT follow anyone into this!

Thank you to @FrancoOlivera for pushing me on this, regardless of outcome.

sullimarcapital.group/2020/09/02/qur…
But, above is why I put the common equity against ZM.

TL/DR - The common's duration has shrunk massively. While the entity is highly leveraged, short to medium term cash flows, combined with who is at the helm, makes the actual risk much lower than perceived.
Thank you to all that helped me.

@MicawberCapital @SirBaby6 @IgnoreNarrative @laubenweg and @alanrabinowitz1 have all been on this as early (or earlier) as I have.

As always, thank you to @AndrewRangeley for sharing his thoughts publicly.
Read 7 tweets
Bill Brewster Profile picture
Aug 28, 2020
Here’s the really interesting part of this game. Most of us are at least aware of Malone. Most of us are aware of You Can Be A Stock Market Genius.

QRTEA is sitting right here, right now. I’ve bet on it. But, I can argue the other side.
Terminal value uncertainty, levered asset, old customer base, higher CaC going forward, cord cutting, etc.

Or, you can look at some other stuff. Like the super users they cite, the potential (though uncertain) FCFCE/mkt cap, historical cash generation that’s always doubted...
No matter what happens it’s going to look obvious in hindsight. And wow am I going to look like a completely atrocious investor if I pass up the obvious to bet on QRTEA. To make it even worse, I was dumb enough to think airlines are a good idea.
Read 9 tweets

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